Persistent Dollar Selling Pressure, FOMC Rally Almost Fully Erased — Government Shutdown Risk Re-emerges, Politics Back
分析と予測

Persistent Dollar Selling Pressure, FOMC Rally Almost Fully Erased — Government Shutdown Risk Re-emerges, Politics Back

29 1月 2026, 11:32
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📘 Persistent Dollar Selling Pressure, FOMC Rally Almost Fully Erased
— Government Shutdown Risk Re-emerges, Politics Back at the Center of the Market —

🧭 Market Overview

This week’s FX market continues to be dominated by strong and persistent dollar selling pressure.
At yesterday’s FOMC meeting, policy rates were left unchanged as widely expected. The statement removed the wording referring to “downside risks to the labor market,” slightly pushing back expectations for an early rate cut.

However, the post-FOMC dollar rebound was short-lived. The dollar quickly lost momentum again and remains capped on the upside.

At the same time, the risk of another U.S. government shutdown has resurfaced. This is raising concerns about potential disruptions to the schedule and reliability of key economic data releases.
At present, the next U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for February 6, but uncertainty remains high.

💰 Declining Currency Confidence and Shift to Safe Assets

As confidence in major currencies, led by the dollar, continues to weaken, capital is steadily flowing into safe-haven assets such as:

  • Gold

  • Silver

  • Platinum

In addition, expansionary fiscal policies across countries are keeping long-term interest rates elevated.
This creates a structure of:

“Rising yields × deteriorating fiscal conditions”

which ultimately translates into downward pressure on currencies.

Behind this lies the broader political and economic uncertainty generated by President Trump’s “America First” policy stance, which is amplifying global instability.

🏛 U.S. Government Shutdown Risk

The most immediate concern for markets is:

Whether a U.S. government shutdown will re-emerge.

Markets are highly sensitive to headlines related to Congress and budget negotiations, and volatility can spike rapidly on any related news.

🇯🇵 Japanese Politics and the USD/JPY Perspective

In Japan, political uncertainty remains until the House of Representatives election on February 8.

Recent polls suggest:

  • A possibility of the LDP securing a single-party majority

  • Weak performance by centrist parties

However, with a short campaign period, rapid shifts in public opinion—especially via social media—cannot be ignored.

For USD/JPY, the key focus is not election coverage itself, but:

Whether “rate-check style” market behavior appears again.

If post-election market instability increases, the possibility of actual FX intervention cannot be fully ruled out. The market remains in a highly tense environment.

📊 London Session Update (Dollar Index)

After the FOMC, price action in the Dollar Index has become calmer but remains biased lower.

  • Tokyo high: 96.354

  • London low: 96.016

  • Current: 96.27

  • Change: -0.18 (-0.19%)

Although the market is range-bound and lacks a clear directional catalyst, the overall level continues to drift gradually downward.

🗓 Key Economic Indicators Today

Europe & Emerging Markets

  • Turkey Employment Data (Dec)

  • Riksbank Policy Rate Decision

  • South Africa PPI (Dec)

  • South African Reserve Bank Policy Rate

  • Eurozone M3 Money Supply (Dec)

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index (Jan)

New York Session

  • U.S. Trade Balance (Nov)

  • Initial Jobless Claims

  • Nonfarm Productivity (Final)

  • Durable Goods Orders (Final)

  • Manufacturing New Orders

  • Wholesale Inventories

Canada

  • International Merchandise Trade (Nov)

🎤 Events & Other Factors

  • ECB enters blackout period ahead of next week’s meeting

  • U.S. 7-year Treasury auction ($44 billion)

  • Major U.S. corporate earnings:

    • Apple

    • VISA

    • Caterpillar

📝 Summary

The current market environment can be described as:

  • “The dollar remains in a selling trend even after the FOMC.”

  • “The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has become a new source of instability.”

  • “Politics and fiscal concerns now dominate FX pricing — a pure political market.”

For USD/JPY, traders must constantly factor in:

  • Rate-check type price action

  • Political headlines

  • Fiscal risk

This combination suggests that short-term price swings are likely to remain volatile and unstable for the foreseeable future.


#FOMC