📰 Christmas Eve Market — With Liquidity Drying Up, It’s Headlines — Not Prices — That Move the Market —

📰 Christmas Eve Market

— With Liquidity Drying Up, It’s Headlines — Not Prices — That Move the Market —

■ Market Overview: Entering One of the Quietest Sessions of the Year

Christmas Eve on December 24 brings shortened trading hours across Europe and the U.S.
In practical terms, markets are close to “near-empty” conditions.

• Most Western institutional investors are already on holiday

• New position building is extremely limited

• Even small flows or official remarks can trigger price swings

The key point, however, is this:
Moves do not turn into trends.

Prices may move, but with no follow-through participation:

➡ moves lack persistence
➡ reversals come quickly

This is the classic year-end, low-liquidity environment.

■ FX Focus: Euro and Pound Dormant, Yen the Only Nervous Currency

◉ Euro & Pound

• Lacking independent catalysts

• Fully range-bound versus the dollar

• “No reason to initiate trades” currencies

→ These pairs are zones best left untouched into year-end.

◉ Yen: The Sole Exception

The yen remains in a uniquely sensitive position, shaped by overlapping forces:

• BOJ rate hike to 0.75% failed to trigger yen appreciation

• Structural yen selling via carry trades persists

• At the same time, strong verbal warnings from the government and MOF

👉 Resulting in a market that is:

Easy to sell, but difficult to sell out completely

An exceptionally tricky environment.

■ Tomorrow’s Key Event: BOJ Governor Ueda’s Keidanren Speech

Wednesday, December 25
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at Keidanren.

Key points to watch:

• How he views post-hike yen weakness

• His distance from further rate hikes

• Whether any sense of urgency toward yen depreciation is expressed

In ultra-thin liquidity, markets tend to react not to what is said, but to:

wording, tone, and nuance

➡ Prices can spike easily
➡ And reverse just as fast

This is one of the most difficult trading environments of the year.

■ Early London Price Action: Small Moves, No Direction

In Christmas Eve London trading, price action remains muted and directionless:

• EUR/USD: Softened toward 1.1780 before stabilizing

• GBP/USD: Small back-and-forth moves around 1.3500

These moves feel less like genuine market decisions and more like
prices being nudged by thin flows, offering little trading value.

■ Today’s Economic Data & Events

Economic Data

• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (forecast: 224k)

Events

• U.S. Weekly Oil Inventory Report

• U.S. 7-Year Treasury Auction ($44bn)

👉 None are likely to define market direction.

■ Summary: Today Is Not a Day to “Win”

• Western markets are effectively in year-end holiday mode

• Euro and pound remain firmly sidelined

• The yen may react to headlines, but moves lack durability

In low-liquidity conditions:

The most dangerous moment is right after a one-way move.

Conclusion

Today is a classic “standing aside is a valid position” market.

Not a day to add exposure —
a day to wait quietly for tomorrow’s Governor Ueda speech.

No chasing.
In year-end markets, the most important skill is not losing money.