✅ FX Options Market Summary (December 18)

✅ FX Options Market Summary (December 18)

■ Spot Prices (Reference Levels)

• EUR/USD 1.1744

• USD/JPY 155.84

• GBP/USD 1.3366

• USD/CHF 0.7949

• USD/CAD 1.3774

• AUD/USD 0.6605

• NZD/USD 0.5762

• EUR/GBP 0.8784

■ Currency-by-Currency Options Landscape

🔵 EUR/USD

Key Zone: 1.1750 – 1.1800 (Very Large Strikes)

• Dec 18

  • 1.1750 (€3.0bn)

  • 1.1800 (€2.6bn)

• Dec 19

  • 1.1800 (€3.3bn)

  • 1.1900 (€2.6bn)

Implications

• Spot is sitting inside a massive option cluster

• Moves in either direction are likely to be
  👉 pulled back toward 1.1750–1.1800

• Even after ECB / CPI events, the pair is prone to range trading

Strategy

• Favor mean-reversion over trend-following

• Upside likely capped unless 1.1800 breaks decisively

🔵 USD/JPY

Mega Cluster Between 153 and 158

• Dec 18

  • 155.00 ($3.5bn)

  • 156.00 ($3.2bn)

  • 157.00 ($4.3bn)

• Dec 19

  • 153.00 ($3.3bn)

  • 155.00 ($2.4bn)

  • 158.00 ($2.3bn)

Implications

• 155–157 is a strong option “magnet”

• Ahead of the BOJ meeting,
  👉 sharp moves are likely to be absorbed

Strategy

• Above 156: beware of stop runs followed by fade

• Prior to BOJ, focus on short-term rotations, not breakouts

🔵 GBP/USD

• Dec 18: 1.3400 (£575m)

• Dec 19: 1.3200 (£939m)

Implications

• Option strikes are widely spaced
  → event-driven volatility risk

• After BOE, price action may gravitate back toward strikes

Strategy

• Avoid chasing the initial BOE move

• Look for exhaustion and reversal setups

🔵 USD/CHF

• Dec 18: 0.7800 ($751m)

• Dec 19

  • 0.7900 ($900m)

  • 0.8000 ($545m)

  • 0.8100 ($740m)

Implications

• 0.79–0.80 forms a heavy congestion zone

• CHF tends to resist directional dollar moves

🔵 USD/CAD

Heavy Resistance Zone: 1.3825 – 1.3900

• Dec 18

  • 1.3600 ($562m)

• Dec 19

  • 1.3825 ($2.9bn)

  • 1.3850 ($1.9bn)

  • 1.3900 ($2.0bn)

Implications

• Upside is well defended

• Without a strong oil-driven catalyst,
  👉 rallies into the 1.38s are likely to fail

🔵 AUD/USD

Main Battleground: 0.6500 / 0.6675 / 0.6700

• Dec 18

  • 0.6550 (AUD 1.4bn)

  • 0.6650 (AUD 1.2bn)

  • 0.6675 (AUD 1.1bn)

• Dec 19

  • 0.6500 (AUD 1.4bn)

  • 0.6675 (AUD 1.3bn)

  • 0.6700 (AUD 1.6bn)

Implications

• 0.6675–0.6700 is a critical resistance band

• Even in risk-on conditions,
  👉 a clean breakout is difficult

Strategy

• Near 0.67:
  profit-taking and short-term fade opportunities

🔵 NZD/USD

• Dec 18

  • 0.5650 / 0.5690

• Dec 19

  • 0.5600 / 0.5630

Implications

• Options concentrated on the downside

• Downside is cushioned, but upside remains limited

🔵 EUR/GBP

• Dec 18

  • 0.8650 / 0.8700

• Dec 19

  • 0.8800 (€1.4bn)

Implications

• 0.88 is the key defensive line

• After BOE/ECB, price may
  👉 gravitate toward 0.88 or reverse lower

■ At-a-Glance Key Takeaways

• EUR/USD: Massive strikes layered at 1.1750–1.1800

• USD/JPY: 153–158 dominated by option flows

• AUD/USD: 0.6500, 0.6675, 0.6700 define the battlefield

• USD/CAD: 1.3825–1.3900 is a heavily armored zone

■ Overall Assessment

This is not a market for strong directional conviction ahead of the BOJ.

• Options are actively
  👉 dampening price momentum

• Effective approaches:

  1. Fade extended moves

  2. Trade rejection around option-heavy zones

The optimal timing for trend judgment comes
👉 after the BOJ meeting.