🟣 Market Shifts Into “Relief Rebound” Mode — USD/JPY Locked in a Mid-154 Tug of War
🟣 Market Shifts Into “Relief Rebound” Mode — USD/JPY Locked in a Mid-154 Tug of War
Market Flow: Risk Concerns Temporarily Recede
As U.S. lawmakers move closer to an agreement to avert a government shutdown,
global markets have entered a “worst-case scenario avoided” relief phase.
Equities saw buying return—particularly in tech—and risk assets broadly recovered.
In FX, yen-selling has re-emerged, though USD/JPY continues to face heavy resistance at 154.40–154.60,
a zone where upside momentum has repeatedly stalled.
Meanwhile, the new Takai administration has signaled no rush toward policy normalization,
which has reduced BoJ tightening expectations and reinforced structural yen weakness.
💱 Current FX Positioning
| Pair | Level | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 154.20–154.35 | Stable but capped — firm support below, heavy resistance above |
| EUR/USD | High-1.15s | Directionless, flow-driven |
| GBP/USD | Low-1.31s | Outlook weighed by UK growth concerns + BOE rate-cut expectations |
| Cross JPY | Gradual yen weakness | Risk-on + BoJ stance supportive |
🔍 Key Focus Today
The U.S. Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day, meaning:
-
Lower liquidity
-
Smaller headlines can cause outsized moves
Additionally, U.S. fiscal headlines are likely to be the primary market driver today.
| Time | Event | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Germany ZEW Sentiment | ★★ | Likely short-lived reaction |
| Ongoing | U.S. shutdown bill headlines | ★★★★ | Main directional catalyst |
🎯 Short-Term Trading Strategy
| Strategy Type | Entry Zone | Target | Stop / Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preferred Sell Zone | 154.45–154.60 short | 154.00 | Above 154.80 |
| Dip Buy Zone | 153.80–154.00 long | 154.35–154.45 | Below 153.55 |
| Medium-Term View | Maintain buy-on-dips | Gradual move toward 155 | — |
Do not chase breakouts.
Do not panic-sell breakdowns.
This is a two-way rotation market — top-sell & bottom-buy is the most efficient approach.
📝 Summary
-
Shutdown concerns have eased → market stabilizing
-
BoJ normalization expectations remain low → yen stays weak
-
USD/JPY’s key resistance remains 154.40–154.60
-
Low-liquidity session → volatility may spike unexpectedly
➡ Underlying bias: Yen weakness continues
➡ But upside stalls easily → best strategy is tactical “buy lows, sell highs” rotation
