💹 +89,248 USD Profit Drivers & Post–Jackson Hole Strategy
✅ Trading Results (Aug 18 – Aug 22)
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Weekly Total: +89,248 USD
📌 Key Profit Drivers
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Gold (XAU/USD): Captured the sharp rally following Powell’s dovish tone and U.S. yield decline. Took profit across multiple positions in the 3370–3378 zone.
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EUR/USD: Benefited from dollar weakness after payrolls and PCE outlook → Euro rebound above 1.17 was well timed for profit-taking.
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GBP/JPY: Took advantage of post-CPI resilience as BOE cut expectations faded. Entered on dips, exited just below 200.00, locking steady profits.
👉 Weak point: Failed to fully capture gains in USD/JPY retracement; left some unrealized profit.
🔹 Strategy by Asset (Week of Aug 25)
USD/JPY
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Drivers: U.S. PCE deflator (8/29), Fed chair succession speculation, Japanese politics (PM Kishida/leadership changes).
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Technicals: Support 146.20–146.70; resistance heavy above 148.
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Strategy: Favor selling rallies near 147s; a break below 146.00 risks 145.00.
EUR/USD
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Drivers: German Ifo, ECB minutes, Eurozone growth concerns.
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Technicals: Support 1.1600; resistance 1.1740–1.1800.
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Strategy: Buy dips around 1.1650–1.1700; if USD weakens, target 1.18+.
GBP/JPY
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Drivers: UK PMI & retail sales; CPI has eased BOE cut bets.
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Technicals: Support 197.50; resistance 200.00.
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Strategy: Buy dips in the 197s; take profit near 200.00.
CAD/JPY
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Drivers: Softer CPI, U.S.–Canada trade tensions, GDP (8/29).
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Technicals: Below 106 = bearish bias; 105.50 downside target.
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Strategy: Sell rallies around 107.
AUD/JPY
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Drivers: RBA minutes, Aussie CPI, China data.
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Technicals: Support 95.50; resistance heavy in upper 96s.
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Strategy: Sell rallies below 96.50.
NZD/JPY
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Drivers: Ongoing RBNZ easing bias; NZ retail sales (8/25).
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Technicals: Near-term low at 85.00.
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Strategy: Sell rallies.
Gold (XAU/USD)
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Drivers: Post-Powell buy trend; focus on PCE.
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Technicals: Support 3360; resistance 3380–3400.
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Strategy: Buy dips at 3350–3360; partial take profit above 3400.
📝 Overall Assessment
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Strengths: Caught the gold rally & euro rebound.
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Weakness: Missed full profit capture on USD/JPY retracement.
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Next Week: Expect dollar weakness to persist, but U.S. PCE and European/UK data will be key swing factors.
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Bullish bias: Gold, EUR/USD.
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Sell rallies: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY.
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📌 Range Forecast (Aug 25 Week)
| Pair | Expected Range | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 145.50 – 148.50 | U.S. PCE, Fed succession news, Japan politics |
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 – 1.1800 | German Ifo, ECB minutes, U.S. PCE |
| GBP/JPY | 197.00 – 200.50 | UK CPI/retail, fiscal risks, U.S. events |
| CAD/JPY | 105.50 – 108.00 | GDP (Aug 29), trade tensions, oil prices |
| AUD/JPY | 94.50 – 96.50 | RBA minutes, Aussie CPI, China data |
| NZD/JPY | 84.50 – 87.00 | NZ retail sales, RBNZ easing bias |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 3350 – 3420 | U.S. PCE, dollar trend, yield outlook |
📜 Afterword | “Balancing the Gut, Balancing the Market”
This week’s key takeaway is that profits came from riding the gold rally and capturing the euro rebound—but discipline slipped with USD/JPY.
Interestingly, I came across a medical article noting that the gut is not just for digestion, but also the foundation for immunity, metabolism, and mental health. With proper balance—through fiber, fermented foods, and nutrition—the whole body performs better.
Trading is much the same. Flashy strategies and quick profits are tempting, but stability comes from the basics: capital management, risk control, and calmness. If these are in balance, turbulence can be absorbed. If not, even small shocks can cause collapse.
As one doctor put it: “Perfection isn’t required—progress is enough.” In trading, too, consistent small improvements strengthen the foundation.
Next week, let’s keep our trading “digestion” steady and build sustainable performance.
See you in the next report!
