[Weekly Profit: +$71,939] Market Shaken by Fed Chair Ouster Rumor & Next Week’s Key Drivers

Trading Summary (July 14–18, 2025) & Outlook for July 21 Week

✅ Weekly Performance

• Net Profit: +71,939 USD

• Main Driver: Successful crypto buying during the risk-on rebound

🔍 Week in Review

This week saw heightened volatility after reports that Fed Chair Powell could be dismissed, triggering sharp moves in FX markets. However, the subsequent denial by former President Trump restored stability, and the dollar regained its strength.

Additionally, strong U.S. retail sales data supported investor sentiment, fueling a risk-on recovery. Timely entry into the crypto market significantly boosted overall returns.

📊 Market Outlook for the Week of July 21

USD/JPY

• Key Factor: Japan’s Upper House election (July 20)

  • If the ruling coalition loses seats → expectations for tax cuts could lift equities & weaken JPY

  • If results are stable → risk of yen short-covering

• Market Note: Tokyo markets closed on July 21 for Marine Day → thin liquidity & volatility risk

• Policy Outlook: Both the Fed (FOMC July 30–31) and BOJ (Aug 1) expected to maintain current stance → yen weakness bias remains

• Risk: Renewed uncertainty over Fed leadership could affect dollar confidence

• Event to Watch: Powell speaks at a conference on July 22

EUR/USD

• ECB Meeting: Likely to pause rate cuts

• Market Sensitivity: Lagarde’s comments will guide expectations for future easing

• Key Drivers: U.S. tariff policy progress & U.S. long-term yields

• EU Data Highlights:

  • HICP Revision (July 17)

  • ZEW Economic Sentiment (July 18)

GBP/JPY

• Focus: July PMI (manufacturing & services), June Retail Sales

• Backdrop:

  • CPI surprised to the upside recently, but rising unemployment keeps BOE cut expectations alive

  • Fiscal risks and ongoing U.S.–UK trade issues remain key headwinds

CAD/JPY

• Key Data: Canadian Retail Sales (July 24)

• Biggest Risk: Outcome of U.S.–Canada trade negotiations

  • If tariff removal talks stall → CAD could face selling pressure

  • Coordination with Mexico may provide partial support

AUD/JPY

• Pressure Points:

  • Weak labor data strengthens expectations of another RBA cut

  • Futures pricing in 25 bps cut in August

• Key Event: Q2 CPI (July 30)

• Bias: Rate-cut sentiment dominates → sell on rallies remains favored

✅ Summary

• USD/JPY: Multiple event risks (Upper House election, Powell’s speech, U.S. trade policy) → overall bias toward yen weakness.

• EUR/USD: Sensitive to ECB and U.S. yield dynamics → choppy trade expected.

• GBP/JPY: Domestic indicators and fiscal concerns cap upside potential.

• CAD/JPY: Watch trade negotiations for directional cues.

• AUD/JPY: Policy easing expectations weigh on AUD → selling pressure likely to persist.