🗓 [June 27, 2025] Trump Comments Trigger Renewed Dollar Sell-Off — Market Shaken by Fed Chair Speculation

🗓 [June 27, 2025] Trump Comments Trigger Renewed Dollar Sell-Off — Market Shaken by Fed Chair Speculation

26 6月 2025, 10:39
Masayuki Sakamoto
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🗓 [June 27, 2025] Trump Comments Trigger Renewed Dollar Sell-Off — Market Shaken by Fed Chair Speculation

📉 FX Market Focus: Trump Remarks Raise Concerns Over Fed Independence

  • WSJ Report: Trump may nominate a replacement for Fed Chair Powell between September and October

    • Potential candidates: NEC Chair Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, former World Bank President Malpass, and current Fed Governor Waller — all seen as Trump-aligned

  • Market Reaction: Fears over weakened central bank independence spark broad-based dollar sell-off

    • USD/JPY: Drops below 145.00, plunging into the mid-144s

    • EUR/USD: Surges above 1.17 — highest since September 2021

    • DXY: Hits new year-to-date lows

🌐 Market Context: Ceasefire Holds, Risk-On Sentiment Continues

  • Middle East ceasefire keeps overall market sentiment stable

  • Equities remain strong

  • Bitcoin sees renewed buying

  • Crude oil faces growing selling pressure on rebounds

💬 Key Speakers & Events (Tonight)

Speaker/Event Focus
ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, Fed Governor Barr (all day) Outlooks on rate cuts and policy stance
President Trump (at NATO Summit) Watch for further comments or announcements on Fed nomination

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (Today)

Indicator Notes
Real GDP (Q1 Final) Expected minor revision (-0.2%); limited impact
Durable Goods Orders (May) Volatile but key for business sentiment
Initial Jobless Claims Forecast: 243K; a rise could fuel further dollar weakness
Pending Home Sales (May) Watch for signs of housing slowdown due to rate hikes

💹 Trader’s Strategy Notes

Asset Outlook Strategy
USD/JPY Heightened downside risks due to Fed leadership uncertainty Cautious on rebounds; favor selling into strength
Bitcoin Boosted by dovish Fed expectations and risk sentiment Continue buying dips amid safe-haven unwind
Crude Oil Stalling after ceasefire and inventory data Sell on rallies; downside risk remains

🔍 Summary
Trump’s Fed-related comments have triggered renewed fears over “credibility of the dollar.”
In the short term, USD selling, EUR and JPY buying may persist. The market narrative is shifting back to political leadership risk.

Tonight’s catalysts: Policy-related speeches and U.S. labor data.
Strategy: Stick with the prevailing trend and look to sell shallow pullbacks.