+191,827 USD Achieved! RBA Rate Cut & U.S.-Japan Trade Talks Hold the Key!
📈 Weekly Performance Report | May 12–16, 2025
💰 Total Profit: +191,827 USD!
Markets turned risk-on following news of U.S.-China tariff easing, with the Australian dollar reacting particularly strongly. But the real game begins now—RBA rate cuts and U.S.-Japan negotiations are key.
📰 Market Overview
■ USD/JPY
Surged to 148.65 on tariff easing news but dropped sharply to the 145 range amid speculation over “yen depreciation correction” in U.S.-Japan talks. Short-term movements remain volatile.
■ EUR/USD
Lacked clear direction, moving in line with USD trends. Rebounded to 1.1266 but faced heavy resistance.
■ GBP/JPY & CAD/JPY
Briefly hit new YTD highs on risk-on sentiment but lost momentum alongside USD/JPY’s pullback.
■ AUD/JPY
Supported by U.S.-China talks and domestic political stability. Hit a new YTD high on May 13, but gains paused with USD/JPY's decline.
■ ZAR/JPY
Despite power outage and inflation concerns, remained firm. Support came from SARB and finance ministry policy adjustments.
📌 Key Focus for the Week Ahead | May 19, 2025
🔹 USD/JPY
- Focus on U.S.-Japan trade talks & currency correction debate
- Agricultural tariff discussions may introduce market risks
- Watch PMI flash data on May 22
🔹 EUR/USD
- Eurozone PMI & IFO may drive ECB rate cut speculation
- Lacks strong direction; likely to react to economic data
🔹 GBP/JPY
- Key data: May 21 CPI, May 22 PMI flash, weekend retail sales
- BOE rate cut expectations could shift depending on inflation
🔹 CAD/JPY
- G7 finance minister meeting headlines may trigger yen buying
- Watch Canadian CPI and retail sales for BOC guidance
🔹 AUD/JPY
- Focus on RBA rate decision on May 20
- Progress in U.S.-China trade may support external demand and interest rate outlook
🔹 ZAR/JPY
- May 21 South Africa summit may reignite land reform issues
- CPI, retail sales, and political developments to watch
📊 Summary & Strategy
- USD/JPY: High volatility due to political risks; headline sensitivity remains high
- EUR & GBP: More movement expected if data surprises
- AUD: Watch for market reaction post-RBA rate cut
- ZAR: Complex due to mixed political and data-related factors
✅ Key Takeaways:
📉 USD/JPY: Sharp drop (−365 pips) – Yen strength from U.S.-Japan negotiations
📈 AUD/JPY: Rise (+102 pips) – Boosted by tariff deal and political calm
⚖️ EUR/USD & ZAR/JPY: Slight gains with limited direction
🔄 GBP/JPY & CAD/JPY: Brief rally but faded with USD/JPY's pullback
Going forward, monitoring FX negotiations and policy rate decisions will be essential for strategy adjustments.
