🌟 Trump's 100th Day Presidential Speech and Forex Market Outlook (April 29, 2025)
29 4月 2025, 10:46
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🌟 Trump's 100th Day Presidential Speech and Forex Market Outlook (April 29, 2025)
✅ Key Themes for Today
- Trump’s 100th Day Presidential Speech (Scheduled for tomorrow morning)
→ Focus on whether he can boost his declining approval rating.
→ Watch for announcements regarding progress on income tax cuts. - Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Press Conference (Scheduled 21:30 JST)
→ Attention on early trade negotiation progress reports with India and Japan.
→ Depending on demands like auto tariff relaxation, the yen may react sensitively. - China’s Ministry of Commerce Remarks
→ "Ready to support normal cooperation with U.S. companies"
→ Eased U.S.-China tensions are providing relief to the market.
✅ Key Economic Data Releases Today (Japan Time)
| Event | Importance | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey March Employment Data | △ | Limited market impact expected. |
| Eurozone March M3 Money Supply | △ | Supplementary indicator for inflation forecasts. |
| Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final (April) | △ | Watch for any major revision from flash figures. |
| U.S. March Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) | △ | Minor influence; GDP-related. |
| U.S. February House Price Indices (HPI/S&P Case-Shiller) | △ | Checking resilience of the housing sector. |
| U.S. March JOLTS Job Openings | ◎ | Expected slight decline (forecast: 7.5M); labor market focus. |
| U.S. April Consumer Confidence Index | ◎ | Forecast to drop sharply from 92.9 to 88.0; may strongly impact markets. |
✅ Today’s Market Focus
- First key event: Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks.
- Second key event: U.S. Consumer Confidence Index — A large downside surprise could trigger fresh dollar selling.
- Relief from eased U.S.-China tensions is slightly supporting risk-on mood.
📈 Today's Trade Strategy Notes
USD/JPY
- Range: 142.50–144.00
- Buy Scenario: Break above 144.00 → Target 144.40
- Sell Scenario: Break below 142.50 → Target 142.00
Key Risk: Volatility likely on Bessent’s comments and Consumer Confidence data.
EUR/USD
- Range: 1.0670–1.0750
- Buy Scenario: Break above 1.0720 → Target 1.0750
- Sell Scenario: Break below 1.0670 → Target 1.0630
Key Risk: Soft Eurozone data could accelerate euro selling.
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Range: 2315–2350 USD
- Buy Scenario: Break above 2330 → Target 2350
- Sell Scenario: Break below 2315 → Target 2290
Key Risk: Sensitive to U.S. stock moves and risk sentiment shifts.
✅ Summary of Today's Outlook
- If Bessent sounds optimistic → Risk-on → USD/JPY buying bias
- If cautious tone → Renewed dollar selling risk.
- Watch for Consumer Confidence result for additional confirmation.
- Continue to favor short-term trading only with strict stop-loss settings.
🎯 Tonight’s Short-Term Trade Map (April 29 Night – April 30 Morning)
USD/JPY
| Type | Entry Condition | Take Profit Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Buy | Break and retest 144.00 (entry at 143.90–144.00) | 144.30–144.50 | Below 143.60 |
| ✅ Sell | Confirm break below 142.50 (entry around 142.30) | 142.00–141.80 | Above 142.80 |
Comment:
- Positive comments by Bessent regarding tariffs or exchange rates could strengthen USD/JPY buying.
- Conversely, cautious remarks could push USD/JPY back into the 142 yen range.
EUR/USD
| Type | Entry Condition | Take Profit Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Buy | Break above 1.0720 and retest (entry 1.0715–1.0720) | 1.0750–1.0770 | Below 1.0690 |
| ✅ Sell | Break below 1.0670 (entry around 1.0665) | 1.0630–1.0600 | Above 1.0695 |
Comment:
- Strong Eurozone PMI data could support a euro rally.
- Risk-off mood on weak U.S. data could trigger renewed euro selling.
Gold (XAU/USD)
| Type | Entry Condition | Take Profit Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Buy | Break and retest 2330 USD (entry 2325–2330) | 2350–2360 | Below 2315 |
| ✅ Sell | Break below 2315 USD (entry around 2312) | 2290–2280 | Above 2320 |
Comment:
- Weak U.S. consumer confidence could revive gold buying.
- If equities stabilize, slight downward pressure on gold is possible.
🛡 Tonight's Trading Summary
- First checkpoint: Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks at 21:30
- Second checkpoint: U.S. Consumer Confidence at 23:00
→ If Risk-On sentiment expands:
- Buy USD/JPY, cross-yen pairs, Bitcoin.
→ If Risk-Off sentiment expands:
- Buy Gold, Sell EUR/USD, broader dollar weakness.
