Kelly Criterion Risk Management Panel
- Indicatori
- Versione: 1.2
- Aggiornato: 1 ottobre 2026
- Attivazioni: 7
Kelly Criterion Risk Management Panel for MT4
A position-sizing and risk-audit tool based on the Kelly Criterion. It reads your closed-trade history on the current symbol, computes your real win rate and payoff ratio, and converts them into three actionable numbers: maximum lots you may open, how wide your stop can be, and how much risk you are carrying right now. Display-only. It never places, modifies, or closes trades.
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PANEL LABELS (Chinese → English)
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【Header】
凯利公式风险管理面板 = Kelly Criterion Risk Management Panel
保守 1/4凯利 = Conservative — 1/4 Kelly
常用 1/2凯利 = Common — 1/2 Kelly
激进 标准凯利 = Aggressive — Full Kelly
当前模式 = Current Mode
【Historical Trade Statistics】
历史交易统计 = Historical Trade Statistics
当前胜率 = Current Win Rate
当前败率 = Current Loss Rate
盈亏比 = Payoff Ratio (avg win ÷ avg loss)
统计样本 = Sample Size
样本参考度 = Sample Reliability
样本不足(<10笔) = Insufficient (< 10 trades)
低 (10-29笔) = Low (10–29)
中 (30-69笔) = Medium (30–69)
高 (≥70笔) = High (≥ 70)
【Stop-Loss Settings】
止损设置 = Stop-Loss Settings
计算方式 = Calculation Method
历史平均 = Historical Average
固定设置 = Fixed Setting
历史平均亏损距离 = Historical Avg Loss Distance
历史平均盈亏比 = Historical Avg Payoff Ratio
均盈 / 均亏 = Avg Win / Avg Loss
应用止损距离 = Applied Stop Distance
止盈目标倍数 = Take-Profit Multiple
点 = points
【Account Risk Information】
账户风险信息 = Account Risk Information
账户余额 = Account Balance
账户净值 = Account Equity
凯利风险比例 = Kelly Risk Ratio
建议风险资金 = Suggested Risk Capital
占净值 = of equity
【Current Trade Recommendations】
当前交易建议 = Current Trade Recommendations
风险上限手数（可开低于此值） = Risk Cap Position Size (may open below this value)
多单 / 空单 = Long / Short
无持仓 = No position
参考止损 / 参考止盈 = Reference SL / Reference TP
手 = lots
当前持仓风险 = Current Position Risk
按止损价 = based on SL prices
单未设止损 [警告] = order(s) without SL [warning]
极限风险(多空叠加) = Max Risk (long + short combined)
还可承受止损（X手） = Remaining Stop Room (X lots)
请先优化策略 = Please optimize your strategy first
样本不足 = Sample insufficient
策略负期望，暂不建议开仓 = Strategy has negative expectancy — opening not recommended
温馨提示：重仓猛干，迟早完蛋。 = Heavy positions lead to eventual ruin.
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HOW IT WORKS
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1. Kelly Criterion
f* = Win Rate − Loss Rate ÷ Payoff Ratio
Three modes apply 1/4, 1/2, or full Kelly. One-click switch.
2. Risk Cap Position Size
Risk Cap Lots = Suggested Risk Capital ÷ Per-Lot Loss at Stop
Shown with raw arithmetic, e.g. 0.96 lots (155÷160). This is a ceiling, not a target.
3. Current Position Risk
Reads your orders' actual stop-loss prices. Orders without SL are flagged in orange. Net exposure = |long risk − short risk|, so hedged positions are not double-counted.
4. Remaining Stop Room
Remaining Points = Risk Capital ÷ (Current Open Lots × Per-Lot-Per-Point)
Answers the light-position trader's question: given what I'm holding, how wide can my stop be? Updates live.
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KEY DESIGN DECISIONS
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• Minimum 10 trades required. Below that, no Kelly is computed.
• Negative expectancy is shown honestly. No misleading lot size is printed.
• The 10% risk cap is OFF by default. You see the raw Kelly value.
• Reads real stop-losses. If you set a wide stop, the panel tells you what it actually risks.
• Adaptive scaling. One font-size input resizes the entire panel for any screen.
• Docks bottom-left, auto-follows chart resize.
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INPUT PARAMETERS
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History Count = 100 (max closed trades to scan)
Max Risk Percent = 0.0 (hard cap on Kelly, 0 = no cap)
Stop Mode = Historical Avg (or Fixed)
Fixed Stop Distance = 5.0
Target RR = 1.5 (TP = stop distance × this multiplier)
Refresh Seconds = 1
Panel Corner = Bottom-Left
Font Size = 9 (global scale factor)
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WHAT IT DOES NOT DO
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• Does not place, modify, or close orders
• Does not predict direction or generate signals
• Does not compensate for partial closes or grid averaging
• Does not run on MT5 (MQL4 only)
• Does not send alerts, sounds, or push notifications
A mirror for your trading, not a crystal ball. It shows you what the math says about your own record — and lets you decide.
