Trend Reversal Probability Robot MT5

Overview

This EA automates trading based on the logic of the Trend Reversal Probability Multi TF Scanner indicator.

Trend Reversal Probability signal logic

The indicator takes the difference between a fast MA and a slow MA, smooths its upward/downward changes and builds an RSI-style oscillator centered on 0. By default, the two MAs are SMA 5 and 34 on median price (High + Low) / 2; Oscillator Length is 20 and smoothing uses SMMA with the original RMA calculation. An oscillator above 0 indicates bullish momentum; below 0 indicates bearish momentum.

Duration is the number of bars since the oscillator last crossed 0, with a value of 0 on the crossing bar. When a phase ends, the count on the bar immediately before the reset is added to a historical sample shared by both directions. The sample mean and standard deviation (SD) form five reference levels: Lower 1 SD, Average Duration, Upper 1 SD, Upper 2 SD and Upper 3 SD.

Entry mode currently offers only Confirmed Buy/Sell signal. Signals form in two steps:

• Buy: during a negative-momentum phase, duration must be greater than the level selected in Buy Warning Threshold Line to produce a bullish warning. Buy forms only when the oscillator crosses above 0 and the bar immediately before that crossing has this bullish warning.
• Sell: during a positive-momentum phase, duration must be greater than the level selected in Sell Warning Threshold Line to produce a bearish warning. Sell forms only when the oscillator crosses below 0 and the bar immediately before that crossing has this bearish warning.

The two warning thresholds are selected independently from the five statistical levels; both default to Upper 3 SD, meaning the mean plus three standard deviations. Equality is insufficient: duration must exceed the threshold. Warnings also require a valid statistical level and 100 valid duration values. Warnings may appear on several consecutive bars while the conditions remain satisfied.

Warnings on earlier bars are not retained while waiting for a later directional change. If the bar immediately before the crossing of 0 has no corresponding warning, no confirmed Buy/Sell forms, even if warnings occurred earlier. The robot does not use warnings, trend-change dots or Probability levels alone as entry conditions in place of confirmed Buy/Sell. Probability is an estimate from a statistical duration model, not a trading win rate.

Buy signal bar shift and Sell signal bar shift default to 1, meaning the most recently closed bar on the current chart timeframe. With shift 0, signals on the forming bar can change before it closes. Searching for the latest signal across all calculated data provides reference information only; an old signal does not automatically become an entry signal on the bar being checked.

Settings that change signals include Maximum bars to process, the Fast MA, the Slow MA, Oscillator Length, Oscillator MA Method (SMMA = original RMA) and the two options Buy Warning Threshold Line, Sell Warning Threshold Line. The lengths, methods and applied prices of the two MAs alter the momentum series; smoothing alters the timing of crossings of 0. The volume source is used when VWMA is selected for an MA or smoothing. The history range also affects the duration sample and statistical thresholds.

The two groups MTF Filter 1 and MTF Filter 2 have separate timeframes, MA/smoothing configurations, Buy/Sell conditions and shifts. Both are off by default. When enabled with their default conditions, Buy is allowed when the oscillator is above 0; Sell is allowed when it is below or equal to 0, at shift 1 of the filter timeframe. These are momentum-state filters and do not require a fresh warning or Buy/Sell signal on the filter timeframe. The two warning thresholds belong to the main signal configuration, not the MTF filter options.

Signals must be assessed together with the filters and trading controls enabled in the EA. The indicator having Scanner in its name does not mean the robot automatically scans multiple symbols.

This Expert Advisor combines automated Buy/Sell signals with configurable position sizing, exits and entry filters. Its settings let you define how eligible trades are opened, managed and closed.

Begin with a single-position setup and individual Stop Loss and Take Profit, then add the supported management functions that fit your method. Different configurations can use trailing, basket exits, Grid or Hedging, subject to the compatibility requirements in the user guide.

Trade and position management

• Position sizing: fixed lots, balance-based sizing, or risk amount/percentage with a compatible Stop Loss.
• Individual exits: configurable Stop Loss and Take Profit, Reward-to-Risk targets and optional virtual SL/TP.
• Trailing: individual-position or basket trailing in supported configurations.
• Closing rules: Basket TP/SL, closing on signals, or closing before the next eligible entry.
• Volume management: Add, Multiplier or Recover, with the conditions required by each mode.
• Additional-position methods: same-direction Grid entries at configured price distances, or opposite-direction Hedging at a configured loss-distance threshold.

The methods have separate requirements. Recover uses a single-position setup with a valid individual TP and cannot be combined with Grid, Hedging or conflicting basket/signal exits. Grid and Hedging cannot be enabled together. Check Part 4 before combining management functions.

Entry filters and operating controls

Optional technical filters include Moving Average, RSI, Stochastic, ADX, MACD, SuperTrend, Volumatic VIDyA and Predictive Ranges. Enable the filters you need and select the conditions that should confirm the EA's main signal.

Trading controls cover direction, sessions, weekdays, holiday periods, spread, position limits, entries per bar and economic news. Each enabled filter should have a defined role; enabling more filters does not automatically improve a configuration.

Daily drawdown actions, breakeven reference lines and trading panels provide additional monitoring and management controls. Panel functions include Pause and closing controls. Available settings and signal parameters can differ by EA, version and platform edition.

Configuration and testing

Start by checking the signal, lot size and individual exits for the intended instrument and timeframe. Add one compatible management function or filter at a time, inspect the resulting trades and save the configuration you want to evaluate.

Use Strategy Tester to examine supported functions on historical data, then verify operation on Demo. News Filter and News Panel do not operate in Strategy Tester in this EA framework and must be checked separately on Demo. Parts 4 and 5 explain testing, configuration messages and troubleshooting.

Review instrument specifications, account size, spread, commission, swap, margin and execution conditions. Lot progression, Recover, Grid and Hedging require particular attention to total open exposure and exit rules.

The EA does not guarantee profit. Historical results do not guarantee future performance.

Support

For help with configuration, use the product comments or the MQL5 messaging system. Describe the intended entry conditions, lot-sizing method, exit rules and whether additional positions should be allowed. I can explain which settings correspond to that behavior and which combinations are supported.