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[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
==========Economists say February RBA Minutes leave a March rate cut live
Some economists, like Annette Beacher – TD Securities Head of Asia Pacific Research – believe May is the best bet for the next RBA cut. But other economists seem to be cautiously optimistic that another cut at the March meeting is “live.”
The context of “live”, or not, is shaped by the Minutes, which revealed the RBA had the same debate in private that the market and pundits had in public about the timing of the February cut.
Felicity Emmett, ANZ’s co-Head of Australian Economics is relying on history for the March cut and expects, “another 25bp cut at the March meeting given the Bank’s historical tendency towards consecutive moves in the early part of a new cycle and its own research which suggests that the impact of one 25bp rate cut on the economy is negligible.”
The Minutes showed that:
"In deciding the timing of such a change, members assessed arguments for acting at this meeting or at the following meeting. On balance, they judged that moving at this meeting, which offered the opportunity of early additional communication in the forthcoming Statement on Monetary Policy, was the preferred course."
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
=========="The rate of inflation faced by households has fallen to its lowest level on record. The Consumer Prices Index, which measures changes in the prices of the goods and services bought by households, increased by 0.3% in the year to January 2015, down from 0.5% in December 2014.
With the rate of inflation slowing, commentators are considering the possibility of deflation – where prices, overall, become cheaper than they were previously. While some prices (such as motor fuels and food) are lower than they were a year ago, others (such as clothing and furniture) are rising."
GBP/USD’s February Uptrend Holding Even After Weak CPI - Here’s Why (based on dailyfx article)
A quick scan of GBP-related headlines this morning will reveal the dire warning: 'UK Inflation Slows More Than Forecast to Record-Low 0.3%' (Bloomberg). But a look beyond the headline data shows that price pressures are actually building in the UK economy, which may be contributing to seemingly quizzical response by the British Pound in the wake of the data.
The core inflation figure - stripped of the fuel component - actually shows the second consecutive month of increasing price pressures. So while the headline yearly figure dipped to a record low +0.3%, the core yearly figure increased to +1.4% in January from +1.3% in December and +1.2% in November. The data fits in neatly with the Bank of England's diagnosis last week in its Quarterly Inflation Report that, but for dampened exogenous conditions, the domestic environment is perking up and a rate hike shouldn't be dismissed over the coming months.
Sure enough, rate hike expectations are intact after today's CPI data, despite the misnomer that is the 'all-time low' headline figure. The Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps and forward rates, which at a point in January were suggesting a late-Q3' or early-Q4'2016 rate rike, are now pricing in 25-bps into the British Pound over the next 12-months - suggesting the market should be looking for the Bank of England to raise rates in February 2016.
Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (based on dailyfx article)
Another 25.0K contraction in U.K. Jobless Claims may encourage an improved outlook for the real economy, but the lack of stronger wage growth may generate a limited market reaction in GBP/USD as the Bank of England (BoE) remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
As a result, the BoE may retain a wait-and-see approach throughout the first-half of 2015, and we may continue to see a unanimous vote to preserve the current policy until there’s a sharp rise in household earnings.
However, waning business outputs along with the slowdown in building activity may drag on hiring, and a dismal employment report may trigger a near-term pullback in the British Pound as it raises the BoE’s scope to retain the highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Claims Decline 25.0K or Greater Accompanied by Stronger Wages
- Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade
- If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish GBP Trade: Job/Wage Growth Report Misses Market Expectations- Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseGBP/USD Daily Chart
- GBP/USD looks poised for a larger recover as it breaks out of the bearish trend/momentum carried over from back in July.
- Interim Resistance: 1.5500 pivot to 1.5520 (38.2% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.5250 (100% expansion) to 1.5270 (38.2% retracement)
Impact that the U.K. Jobless Claims Change has had on GBP during the last release(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
2014
U.K. Jobless Claims fell more-than-expected as the figure shrank another 29.7K in December, while the ILO Unemployment Rate declined to a 6-year low of 5.8% during the three-months through November. Wage growth outpaced the headline reading for inflation, with Average Weekly Earnings expanding an annualized 1.7% during the same period. Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, it seems as though the Bank of England (BoE) will preserve its neutral stance as the central bank curbs its near-term outlook for inflation. Nevertheless, the better-than-expected print failed to spur a meaningful reaction in GBP/USD, with the pair largely advancing during the North American trade to end the day at 1.6480.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.02.18
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
GBPUSD M5: 60 pips price movement by GBP - Unemployment Rate news event
The European soap opera continues with the new Greece bailout deal! Is it a good thing, or just another Band-Aid on a much bigger problem? Master trader Tim Pesut joins Merlin to take a look at the Euro, Canadian Dollar, Pound, and Aussie dollar. Tim and Merlin analyze the charts and offer their thoughts on currency levels and direction.
[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
==========
FOMC Minutes - Reactions From 10 Major Banks
BofA Merrill: The recent steady stream of Fed speakers advocating for a potential June rate hike led to expectations for relatively hawkish FOMC minutes. The headlines for the minutes surprised to the dovish side, and led to a decline in Treasury yields and the US dollar. However, a closer reading suggested a more modest dovish bent with a lot of disagreement among participants. Thus, attention now shifts to Chair Yellen's Congressional testimony next week, which in our view should elaborate and update the assessment of risks while still leaving a June liftoff in play. We expect persistently below-target inflation delays the Fed until September, but the minutes confirm a fair degree of uncertainty about the timing of the first rate hike.
Credit Agricole: The minutes of the January FOMC meeting were relatively dovish and spelled more caution over the inflation outlook and timing of the rate liftoff. On balance, we continue to expect rate normalization to begin in the Q3 2015.
UBS: The minutes of this FOMC meeting are quite ambiguous. There was no definitive view on the impact of foreign developments. Also, there was no clear view on the outlook or the timing of the first rate hike. This was due, likely in part, to the fact that there was uncertainty about the right inflation measures to look at and what other measures might influence them. Even the phrase "patient" was debated: Would removing it cause markets to adjust the timing of the first rate hike too aggressively?...Unfortunately, all the cross currents give us little direction. Prior to the re-acceleration in wages and the continued strong labor market readings and the rebound in oil prices, it would appear that fading a June hike would have made sense given these minutes. Post these realities, it is not clear. The testimony next week is unlikely to prove too instructive as Yellen testifies on behalf of the committee, which last met on January 28th. For now we will keep our forecast of a June rate hike counting on the still-strong labor market and rebound in energy prices to win the day. We will have to be "patient" to see how this wind blows.
Deutsche Bank: The minutes from the January 27 - 28 FOMC meeting did not indicate any substantive changes to the growth outlook compared to the Fed's most recent projections released last December. The near-term inflation outlook was revised down slightly due to further declines in oil prices. However the staff's inflation forecast for 2016 and 2017 was "essentially unchanged." There was considerable debate over the interpretation of market-based measures of inflation compensation but there were no firm conclusions with respect to the longer-term inflation outlook, which the FOMC still sees as gradually rising toward its 2% target. Moreover, the Fed reiterated the view that low energy prices were a net positive for the economy. In short, there were no material changes with respect to the economic and financial outlook.
ANZ: The minutes from the January FOMC meeting were more dovish than expected although we do not expect there has been a wholesale change in view. The FOMC appears more concerned about risks from offshore and the higher USD and many FOMC members would prefer to keep the fed funds rate at near zero bound for a longer time. In our view, we would not read too much into the term 'longer'. In addition, given many of the offshore risks - such as the Greek and Ukraine situations - now look more likely to be resolved, this should allay a lot of the stated reasons for hesitancy. We continue to look for the first hike around mid-year although we acknowledge the risks of the Fed waiting have increased. Yellen's speeches next week will be important
NAB: The killer paragraph in the minutes of the Fed's January meeting reads as follows: "Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time". In FOMC speak, many is taken to mean a majority, and these words have had the effect of pushing implied money market yields in the fourth quarter of 2015 down by about 5bps on average, and by as much as 10bps further out along the shorter end of the yield curve. It's worth remembering here that the mood music coming from Fed officials ahead of the minutes - but since the meeting itself - had been consistent in suggesting that a June Fed 'lift-off' is still a very live risk. Janet Yellen's testimonies next week now loom large. Trading will be thinner than normal given today is the Lunar New Year holiday and so Greater China is shut.
SEB: It is our understanding that the Fed minutes did not suggest that the FOMC is paving the way for a June rate hike as "many officials were inclined to stay at zero for longer". Moreover, the drop in inflation expectations was apparently worrying since a number of participants emphasized that they would need to see either an increase in market-based measures of inflation compensation or evidence that continued low readings on these measures did not constitute grounds for concern. While we may have a different view after Chair Yellen's semi-annual testimony before congress next week, the minutes are not suggesting to us that "patience" will be dropped as early as in the March statement. Our forecast still is for liftoff a few meetings later, in September.
Barclays: Our main takeaway from the January FOMC minutes is that concern about downside risk to inflation has risen and, consequently, the bar for raising rates by June is higher than it was in December. We maintain our baseline forecast for a June rate hike at this juncture, but the risk of a later takeoff has risen, particularly if downside surprises on core inflation continue. We look to Chair Yellen's comments in front of the US Senate and House of Representatives next week for further clarification on the committee's thinking.
Danske: The minutes from the January FOMC meeting strongly suggest that the FOMC's fed funds rate projections will be lowered at the upcoming 18 March meeting and the minutes were in general more dovish than recent Fed speeches. Data received since the FOMC meeting on 28 January includes the January employment report, which was very strong. However, we doubt that one data point is enough to turn the Committee's sentiment, in particular when inflation indicators continue to be soft. This challenges our call that the Fed will remove 'patient' from the statement in March and raise the fed funds rate this summer If February data on employment continue to show solid improvement and inflation indicators stabilise, we continue to believe the Fed would like to have the flexibility to raise rates in June. Hence, 'patient' should be dropped in March but will be combined with soft comments from Janet Yellen and lower economic projections in order to keep the market reaction moderate.
CIBC: The latest minutes show that many officials felt dropping patient could lead markets to price in too early a move to tighten policy, putting upwards pressure on rates when some sectors like housing are still showing uneven signs of recovery. Notwithstanding that, several members suggested that a "late departure" could result in monetary policy becoming excessively accommodative. Not inconsistent with that view, there was general agreement that the minutes should "acknowledge solid growth over the second half of 2014, as well as the further improvement in the labour market." The minutes overall show that opinion within the FOMC remains deeply split on when the Fed should take the next step on the road to policy normalization. Although inflation has moved down, the minutes also affirm the statement in suggesting that most members continue to see the drop as a transitory consequence of lower oil prices, and therefore not sufficient at this point to warrant a notable delay in moving interest rates up from the lower bound. Today's release does not change our view that June still remains the most likely date for policy lift off. A slight positive for bonds given further signs of the Committee's reluctance to dispense with the key word "patience". The focus now shifts to Yellen's testimony next week for further information on the policy outlook.
The pound held steady close to more than one-month highs against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as the greenback remained under pressure after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting imdicated that interest rates could stay on hold for a longer period.
GBP/USD hit 1.5466 during European morning trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5448.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.5339, Wednesday's low and resistance at 1.5586, the high of January 2.
The British Pound is digesting gains against the US Dollar after rising to the highest level in nearly two months. Near-term resistance is at 1.5551, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1.5737. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1.5322 opens the door for a challenge of a horizontal pivot at 1.5194.
We bought GBPUSD at 1.5373, initially aiming for 1.5551. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close below 1.5194. We will take profit on half of the position and move the stop to breakeven once the first target is reached.
A contraction in U.K. Retail Sales may spur a near-term pullback in GBP/USD as it dampens the outlook for a stronger recovery in 2015.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
However, we may see private-sector consumption outpace market expectations as the Bank of England (BoE) anticipates lower energy prices to boost disposable incomes, and Governor Mark Carney may continue to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank head turns increasingly upbeat towards the economy.
Nevertheless, improved confidence paired with the pickup in job/wage growth may produce a better-than-expected sales report, and a further improvement in household spending may encourage the BoE to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later as heightens the prospects for a stronger recovery.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: Private Spending in U.K. Contracts 0.2% or Greater
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short British Pound trade
- If market reaction favors short sterling trade, sell GBP/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Exceeds Market Forecast- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseGBP/USD Daily Chart
- Lack of momentum to preserve the bullish trend in RSI
may highlight a near-term top in GBP/USD as it fails to push back above
the former support region.
- Interim Resistance: 1.5500 pivot to 1.5520 (38.2% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.5250 (100% expansion) to 1.5270 (38.2% retracement)
Impact that the U.K. Retail Sales report has had on GBP during the last release(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
Trading the News: Canada Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
A slowdown in Canada Retail Sales may spur a larger advance in USD/CAD as the Bank of Canada (BoC) adopts a more cautious outlook for the region.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Following the surprise rate cut at the January 21 meeting, a further deterioration in the growth outlook may prompt BoC Governor Stephen Poloz to relay a more dovish tone for monetary policy and show a greater willingness to further reduce the benchmark interest rate in an effort to generate a stronger recovery.
Nevertheless, easing inflation along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may boost household spending, and a better-than-expected print may push USD/CAD back towards the monthly low (1.2350) as it limit’s the BoC’s scope to implement offer lower borrowing-costs.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish CAD Trade: Canada Retail Sales Slip 0.4% or Greater
- Need green, five-minute candle following a dismal sales report to consider long USD/CAD entry.
- If the market reaction favors a bearish Canadian dollar trade, establish long with two position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bullish CAD Trade: Private-Sector Consumption Tops Market Forecast- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short USD/CAD trade.
- Carry out the same setup as the bearish loonie trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseUSD/CAD Daily Chart
- Need a break of the near-term bearish momentum in RSI to favor a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
- Interim Resistance: 1.2797 (February high) to 1.2800 (38.2% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.2340 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2390 (161.8% expansion)
Impact that the Canada Retail Sales report has had on CAD during the last month(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
2014
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDCAD, M5, 2015.02.20
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
USDCAD M5: 69 pips price movement by CAD - Retail Sales news event