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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.02 11:40
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Construction PMI and 26 pips price movement
2016-03-02 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.
==========
"The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) registered 54.2 in February, down from 55.0 in January and the lowest since April 2015. Although still above the 50.0 value that separates expansion from contraction, the latest reading pointed to one of the weakest rises in construction output seen over the past two-and-a-half years."
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GBPUSD M5: 26 pips price movement by UK Construction PMI news event :
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.02 16:53
Crude Oil Intra-Day Fundamentals: price is testing 36.07 support level by U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 10.4M barrels from the previous week
2016-03-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 518.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 3.7 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 9.9 million barrels last week."==========
Crude Oil M5 price movement by U.S. commercial crude oil inventories news event :
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 08:44
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: Bearish Ranging.
The intra-day price (H4) broke 200 period SMA/100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition. The price is started to be ranging within 1.0825 support level and 1.0880 resistance level.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 10:52
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Services PMI and 39 pips range price movement
2016-03-03 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.
==========
"The headline figure for the survey is the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Services Business Activity Index, a single-figure measure designed to track changes in total UK services activity compared with one month previously. Readings above 50.0 signal growth of activity compared with the previous month, and below 50.0 contraction. The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell to 52.7 in February, from 55.6 in January. This signalled the slowest rise in service sector activity since March 2013. Moreover, the Index was below its long-run trend level (since July 1996) of 55.2. Nevertheless, services output has risen continuously for 38 months, the second-longest sequence of expansion in the survey history."==========
GBPUSD M5: 39 pips range price movement by UK Services PMI news event :
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.01 16:21
Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: 1,890 is important (adapted from the article)
H1 price is located to be above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the bullish area of the chart: the secondary correction was started by the price for trying to break 1,928 support level to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.
SUMMARY : correction
TREND : primary bullishH1 price broke 1,962 resistance to above together with 1,977 resistance level. For now - the price is testing 1,983 for the bullish trend to be continuing:
D1 price is on local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish condition: the priceis breaking 1,977 level to above, and if this level will be broken on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started up to 2,038 level as the next bullish target to re-enter. And 2,100 level is the one for the strong bullish trend to be started (if the price breaks it to above for example):
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 16:00
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Jobless Claims and 22 pips range price movement
2016-03-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
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"A day before the release of the closely watched monthly jobs report, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended February 27th.The report said initial jobless claims rose to 278,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 272,000."
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EURUSD M5: 22 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news event :
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.03 17:21
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and 22 pips range price movement
2016-03-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.
==========
"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 53.4 percent in February, 0.1 percentage point lower than the January reading of 53.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 57.8 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the January reading of 53.9 percent, reflecting growth for the 79th consecutive month at a faster rate.The headline figure for the survey is the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Services Business Activity Index, a single-figure measure designed to track changes in total UK services activity compared with one month previously. Readings above 50.0 signal growth of activity compared with the previous month, and below 50.0 contraction. The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell to 52.7 in February, from 55.6 in January. This signalled the slowest rise in service sector activity since March 2013. Moreover, the Index was below its long-run trend level (since July 1996) of 55.2. Nevertheless, services output has risen continuously for 38 months, the second-longest sequence of expansion in the survey history."==========
USD/JPY M5: 22 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event :
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 09:37
Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ signs of sticky wage growth may encourage the FOMC to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.
Nevertheless, waning business confidence accompanied by fears of a slowing recovery may drag on hiring, and a dismal NFP report may produce increased headwinds for the dollar as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climbs 195K+ Accompanied by Sticky Wage Growth
- Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
- If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD Daily
- EUR/USD may continue to consolidate within the 2015 range following the failed run at the October high (1.1494), but the pair stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds as market participants anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more non-standard measures at the March 10 interest rate decision.
- Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
- Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous monthEURUSD M5: 133 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
Ahead of NFP: levels for EUR/USD
EUR/USD: rally to possible bullish reversal. This pair on the bearish market condition with the secondary bear market rally: the price is located near and below 200 period SMA inside ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the possible bearish reversal. RSI indicator is estimating the rally to be continuing with the secondary ranging condition.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 14:50
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Non-Farm Employment Change and 68 pips price movement
2016-03-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
==========
"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 242,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and private educational services. Job losses continued in mining."
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EURUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event :