Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 4

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.19 16:48

Forecast for Tomorrow: intra-day levels for USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

USD/CAD: ranging bullish. This pair is ranging to be above Ichimoku cloud within key support/resistance levels to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing or for possible bearish reversal to be started.

  • if the price breaks 1.5605 resistance so the primary bullish market condition will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1.4431 support level on close H4 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary correction will be started within the primary bullish market condition;
  • if the price breaks 1.4218 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud in this case);
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.


Resistance
Support
1.56051.4431
N/A
1.4218

EUR/USD: ranging for direction. The price for the pair is located above and near Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition ranging on the border between the bearish/bullish reversal area waiting for the direction of the trend.

  • if the price breaks 1.0984 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging condition;
  • if the price breaks 1.0804 support level on close H4 bar so reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish condition will be started up to 1.0770 re-enter target;
  • if not so the price will be ranging between the levels.


Resistance
Support
1.09841.0804
N/A
1.0770

USD/JPY: waiting for big news to start big movement. Intra-day H4 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud and near 'reversal' Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) and with the symmetric triangle pattern which was broken by the price to above for the possible bullish trend to be started.The price is ranging within 118.10/117.00 as intermediate s/r levels and within 118.83/116.50 as the key s/r levels.

  • if the price breaks 118.10 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing up to 118.83 as the next target to re-enter;
  • if the price breaks 117.00 support level so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.


Resistance
Support
118.10117.00
118.83116.50

 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.20 13:35

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting for the direction to break the levels

M30 price is located near SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the ranging condition waiting for the direction to break the levels.

  • If the price will break 1.0975 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0859 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
1.09751.0859
N/AN/A

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0859 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0975 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.20 16:06

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: US Core CPI and 37 pips price movement

2016-01-20 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for energy and food both declined for the second month in a row, leading to the decline in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The energy index fell 2.4 percent as all major component energy indexes declined. The food index fell 0.2 percent as the index for food at home decreased 0.5 percent, led by a sharp decline in the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs."

==========

EURUSD M5: 37 pips price movement by USD - Core CPI news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.21 09:59

Trading News Events: ECB Interest Rate (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The deviating paths for monetary policy continues to encourage a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD especially as the Federal Reserve pledges to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016 but, the single-currency may face another short squeeze should President Mario Draghi endorse a wait-and-see approach for the first-half of 2016.

Nevertheless, bright signs coming out of the real economy may push the ECB to the sidelines, and the Euro may face a similar reaction to the December rate decision should the central bank scale back its willingness to implement more non-standard measures.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Boosts Bets for More Non-Standard Measures

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the policy statement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.
Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Attempts to Buy Time
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • Even though the long-term outlook remains tilted to the downside, EUR/USD stands at risk of facing choppy prices ahead of the ECB rate decision as it remains stuck in a narrowing range; single-currency stands at risk for another short-squeeze should the central bank talk down bets for more monetary easing.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

EURUSD M5: 22 pips price movement by ECB Interest Rate news event :


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.21 15:02

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey and 109 pips price movement

2016-01-21 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

==========


"The diffusion index for current activity increased from a revised reading of -10.2 in December to -3.5 and has now been negative for five consecutive months (see Chart 1 above). The index for current new orders remained negative but increased 10 points, to -1.4. Firms reported an increase in shipments to begin the new year: The shipments index increased 12 points, its first positive reading in four months. Firms reported continued declines in inventories: The inventories index remained negative and decreased 10 points. Firms’ backlog of unfilled orders also declined this month, and delivery times were shorter, according to the responding firms."

==========

EURUSD M5: 109 pips price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event :



 

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging for direction

H4 price is on ranging condition to be moved aroud Ichimoku cxloud waiting for the direction for breakout or for breakdown.

  • Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging bearish market condition by the direction.
  • Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  • The nearest support level for H4 price is 1.0777.
  • The nearest resistance levels are 1.0920 and 1.0984.
Resistance
Support
1.09201.0777
1.0984N/A


If H4 price will break 1.0777 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.0920 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0920 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0777 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.23 08:01

EURUSD: watching for support in the mid-1.0600s (based on the article)


  • "EUR/USD has been holding its long term trendline support since March 2015 (even the January low is right on the line). November and December trade produced a tweezer bottom (reversal candlestick pattern…bullish in this case) as well. 2 scenarios seem most likely from the current juncture; a continued range (with roughly 1.15 resistance) or a bullish base that leads to an eventual breakout into the 1.20s."
  • "Near term, we suggest watching for support on the shorter term median line (bold black line on the chart above) in the mid-1.0600s. The market has been in a tight range since December."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.24 07:52

Forex Weekly Outlook Jan. 25-29 (based on the article)

Market mood before it became better in a very busy week. Will the Fed and the BOJ go dovish? Apart from these rate decisions, we have GDP data from the US and the UK as well as other key releases.

  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German business sentiment declined slightly in December, falling to 108.7 compared to 109 posted in November going below analysts’ predictions of 109.2. The current conditions section reached 112.8, lower than the 113.4 points booked in November amid weakness in external conditions. The outlook index remained unchanged at 104.7, a bit lower than the 105 estimated by economists. However, the German economy continued to grow in the third quarter amid robust domestic consumption, while the ongoing immigration wave also provided a little boost. Business climate is expected to decline further to 108.5 this time.
  2. Draghi speaks: Monday, 18:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt. He may speak about the ECB decision to see a darker picture and may reveal clues about the chances for a change in the monetary policy at the next meeting in March. Market volatility is expected. His words impact not only the euro, but as we’ve seen, the whole market.
  3. Carney speaks: Tuesday, 10:45. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in London about the Financial Stability Report. He may explain his objection to raise interest rates despite the Federal reserve move on December 2015. Market volatility is expected. Any mention about the EU referendum and its implications could also move markets.
  4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. American consumer confidence rose in December amid improving labor market conditions. The index increased to 96.5 in from 92.6 in the previous month, beating expectations for a 93.9 reading. Both present conditions and the 6- month outlook improved. The US economy expanded 2% in the third quarter, also expecting a similar reading for the final quarter. Job growth averaged 210,000 in 2015 pushing the jobless rate down to 5% in November. Consumer confidence is forecasted to reach 96.6 in Janyary.
  5. Australia inflation data: Wednesday, 0:30. Australian inflation increased 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, lower than the 0.7% rise predicted by analysts. The lower than expected rate was one of the main reasons for the rate cut in December. The weak inflation data “was broad-based, except for housing-related items. The weakening in underlying inflation may lead to further cuts in the near future. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.3% this time. This is key to the RBA decision in the following week, and will be watched by other central banks.
  6. US rate decision: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve took the plunge and raised its key interest rate from a range of 0% to 0.25% to a range of 0.25% to 0.5% on its December meeting. The raise affected investors, home buyers and savers. The increase was widely anticipated as the US economy continued to improve making a full recovery from the Great Recession. The Fed noted that future rate hikes will be gradual to avoid killing the economic recovery. No change is expected now and also the implied probability for a move in March looks slim. The big question is: will the Fed acknowledge the recent weakness and hint on a hiatus in rate hikes, joining the other dovish central banks.
  7. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:45. The central bank of New Zealand cut its benchmark rate for the fourth time since June 2015 on its December meeting, unwinding former increases. Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler noted that the economy weakened due to lower diary prices and rising unemployment following a surge in the number of immigrants. Inflation remained below the Bank’s target of 1%-3%, but Wheeler expects export prices to strengthen in 2016 raising inflation to the middle target range.
  8. UK GDP data: Thursday, 9:30. The UK economy eased its expansion rate to 0.4% in the third quarter according to the final read. The Service sector gave its best performance in nearly a year with growth of 0.7%. Construction output fell by more than 2% while industry contracted for a third consecutive quarter. The mild increase suggests the BoE will not be in a hurry to raise rates any time soon. However some economists claim the slowdown in the third quarter is not enough to hamper rate hikes in mid-2016. Economists expect GDP to rise 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
  9. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 13:30. Orders for long lasting factory goods remained unchanged in November. Economists expected orders would decline 0.6%. Business investment plans fell in November. The strong dollar continued to weigh on manufacturing and spending cuts in the energy sector showed little sign of abating. Meanwhile core orders excluding transportation items declined 0.1% while expected to rise 0.1% in November. Durable Goods Orders is predicted to decline 0.7% in December, while Core orders are expected to remain flat.
  10. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 293,000 last week, suggesting a setback in the labor market amid economic slowdown and major stock market selloff. The 10,000 rise was contrary to analysts’ expectations, predicting a drop to 279,000. Although layoffs have picked up in recent weeks, it does not necessarily suggest a downward trend but might be attributed to seasonally adjustments. The four-week moving average of claims increased 6,500 to 285,000 last week. The number of new claims is expected to reach 281,000 this week.
  11. Japan rate decision: Friday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary stimulus target in December but decided on operational changes for its purchases of government bonds, exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts. Governor Haruhiko Kurodasaid the changes were designed to make it easier for the BOJ to maintain the current policy and didn’t constitute additional easing. However, Kuroda reaffirmed that he wouldn’t hesitate to adjust monetary policy if needed. The Japanese currency has lost about 30% of its value against the dollar despite calls for companies increase their investments. Recent hints from both the central bank and the government talked about more stimulus. Japan certainly does not like the strength of the yen against the dollar, the yuan and even the euro.
  12. Canadian GDP data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economic output remained unchanged in October after contracting 0.5% in September. Mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction expanded as well as the public sector, while manufacturing, utilities and retail trade offset this expansion, suggesting the Canadian economy weakened in 2015. Economists forecasted an expansion of 0.2%. Analysts also expect flat growth in the fourth quarter.
  13. US GDP data: Friday, 13:30. U.S. economy expanded at a pace of 2% annually according to the final read for Q3. Businesses gained $56.8 billion worth of inventory in the third quarter, the smallest since the first quarter of 2014 and down sharply from $113.5 billion in the April-June period. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 3.2% after expanding at a 3.6% in the second quarter indicating solid domestic demand. Analysts expect GDP to reach 0.8% in the fourth quarter. It is important to note that the Fed may already have the data before we do.

 

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 24.01 - 31.01: bearish breakdown

Daily price located below Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart: price was inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging bearish market condition. It was good breakdown movement in the end of the week, and the price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed from the ranging bearish to the primary bearish condition with 1.0777 support level as the nearest bearish target in this case.

If D1 price will break 1.0777 support level on close bar so the bearish market condition will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If D1 price will break 1.0984 resistance level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.0984 for possible buy trade.
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0777 support level for possible sell trade.
  • Trading Summary: bearish breakdown.
ResistanceSupport
1.0984 1.0777
1.1059 N/A



SUMMARY : breakdown

TREND : bearish market condition
 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.24 17:58

The most interesting pair you can make money with - EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD: breakdown to bearish reversal. Daily price for the pair is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction to be started. Chinkou Span line broke the price to below for good breakdown to be started and to be continuing in the near future, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be started. The price broke two key support levels during the breakdown with 1.4940 support level as the target in this case for example.

There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the next 3 weeks: 

  • the breakdown will be continuing in case the price breaks 1.5331 support level on close daily bar;
  • the bearish reversal will be started in case the price breaks 1.4940 support level to below;
  • or the ranging within the primary bullish s/r levels will be started.

There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/CAD price movement for the week:

  • 2016-01-25 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
  • 2016-01-25 18:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]
  • 2016-01-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
  • 2016-01-27 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
  • 2016-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]
  • 2016-01-29 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Retail Sales]
  • 2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
  • 2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]


ResistanceSupport
1.59571.5331
1.61031.4940

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