ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations 2022 - page 120
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We should take a closer look at short-term OFZs with a maturity of up to a year and a yield to maturity of more than 20% per annum. I suspect that interest rates will only fall further. Higher interest rates have saved banks from the outflow of funds from deposits, but they have absolutely killed off lending and shaken the financial position of companies with floating-rate loans by increasing the cost of debt service. These very same debt service costs will be compensated by enterprises at the expense of consumers of their products. Of course, I am not a professional in economics, but I think the rate could have been lowered and the outflow of funds from deposits compensated to banks by giving them enough money from the Central Bank at a low interest rate for their current needs. Personally I have not noticed that an increase in interest rate has curbed inflation. The rouble has only strengthened slightly but prices are still going up.
...
Here's an example: OFZ 26209 maturing 20.07.22, the coupon is around 7% p.a. NKD 12,7 RUB. Last time it was traded at 97.85% of face value. Yield to maturity if we count from the last trade 13.34% per annum. At market opening the price may be even lower from it the yield to maturity will be even more. Longer federal loan bonds with longer tenors have probably shed even more. But they are scary to buy. We do not know what will happen next, in a year or more.
Central Bank: President Putin's decree does not prohibit buying foreign shares on the stock exchange
The Central Bank has commented on Putin's decree on buying stakes in foreign companies
Central Bank: President Putin's decree does not prohibit buying foreign shares on the stock exchange
Do you smell that? Two big differences...
Mosbirch will start trading on 21 March with the OFZ market
p.s.
The stock market will open gradually:
only OFZs will start trading on Monday. The Bank of Russia will announce when other sections of the stock market will open additionally.
OFZs will be traded from 10.00-11.00 Moscow time in a discrete auction mode, and then from 13.00-17.00 Moscow time in a normal mode.
Short sales on such instruments will be prohibited, the Central Bank said.
The Bank of Russia itself will buy government debt in order to avoid volatility, ensure liquidity and limit financial stability risks.
Can you smell it? Two big differences...
Yeah, yeah, I'm aware of that.
I just put it in the Decree thread--it doesn't prohibit buying foreign stocks on the exchange.
It's just there's a twisted interpretation on the Internet.
Yeah, yeah, I'm aware of that.
I just put it in the Decree thread ---doesn't prohibit buying foreign stocks on the stock exchange.
It's just there's a twisted interpretation on the internet.
https://cbr.ru/faq/w_fin_sector/#a_tm7095
The Decree does not concern exchange-traded instruments. The document refers to a restriction on direct transfer of funds for participation in what in Russian law is called a "limited liability company", "capital contribution to a company", or "share in a cooperative".
It is possible to buy foreign securities, but payments to foreign counterparties will be made through special accounts.
https://cbr.ru/about_br/dir/rsd_2022-03-18_03/
https://cbr.ru/about_br/dir/rsd_2022-03-18_04/
But I think this is a problem for the NCC and they should be concerned about how the clearing will take place when sales transactions take place between a resident and a non-resident.https://cbr.ru/faq/w_fin_sector/#a_tm7095
It is possible to buy foreign securities, but payments to foreign counterparties will be made through special accounts.
https://cbr.ru/about_br/dir/rsd_2022-03-18_03/
https://cbr.ru/about_br/dir/rsd_2022-03-18_04/
But I think this is a problem for the NCC and they should be concerned about how the clearing will take place when sales transactions take place between a resident and a non-resident.The only problem is that the session starts at 5pm earlier than 5pm, so I don't trade in USA stocks at the opening.
On USA only a teaneck - so far the only problem is that the session starts at 5pm - previously it started at 7am - and for some USA securities at 10am.
Now it is only at 5 pm which of course is a limit :(
Forecasts, scenarios, expectations, so...
Source - BCS, if anything:
The first option is apparently no longer an option, so between the two Iranians for now, there could be something between an embargo and a semi-embargo, in any case both options lead to stock market growth, which Iran itself has proroufed, as much as a 15-fold increase:
Even if life inside an isolated country becomes dim, but the market will grow (based on the analogy) and the profits will be good.
Capitalisation has collapsed to ~13 trillion and excluding frozen non-residents will be around 7, so the announced support of 1 trillion and buybacks will help:
OTC dealing on the week was even slightly above the close, which may suggest that there may not be some super deep bottom, at least not until the frozen ones are unfrozen.
In buying priorities, it should be obvious: everything commodity-oriented, metals, gas, oil, nickel, palladium, gold, as well as chemicals and fertilizers, coal, tickers everyone already knows well, no point in listing the trivial.
There is no point in buying any of the domestic-oriented ones for the self-evidently understandable reasons of its implosion, only resource exports, only hardcore.
The banking sector is also more likely to be among the losers, but Sberchik will survive and regrow almost certainly.
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Who did not have a currency cushion in advance - one can only pity them, of course, the unlearned...
It would be nice to have , for example, bonds with coupons in currencies or FTD notes with good issuers and if you hold them to maturity, you can neglect the interest risk, no matter how wild the candlestick is drawing.
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PS: since discussions of these topics inevitably lead to ultra-painful ideological reactions, and this forum is clearly not the best place for free discussion, so I won't write anything else.
If anyone is interested go to Sect* (the new sect).
Hail Capitalism, Cosmos and Logos, pros and good vibes to all. 🤑
Glory to Capitalism, Cosmos and Logos, pros and good vibes to all. 🤑
What about the factory?
As always,
stop scaring people.