ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations 2022 - page 124
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It was given a week to prepare, and according to new data, not only gas but all exports are going to be converted to roubles. The ruble strengthened most likely due to the actions of speculators, they usually react faster to this kind of news.
That is true!
Well, do we expect the USD to rise to its real level in a few years, say, 0.64 kopecks? Or is that too brazen?
50 years ago the exchange rate was 0.64, at least that was the exchange rate for newcomers. The exchange rate was used in general :)
Growth is usually gradual, but it is falling fast.
Great fantasy 😁
:))) 0.64 is just a joke...
like 60 - does not look funny. when the time comes to buy another batch of resources it will really hurt, right?
for example, if you push it up, it will be very unprofitable.
Yes, I saw that news too. Only not to the Europeans, but to everyone on the special list. Interfax published it. I won't write the link. I'm afraid of crossing the line and the moderators will show up.
...
I remembered an anecdote on the subject.
Stirlitz is walking down the street and sees a house painter painting over obscene graffiti on a fence.
- The moderator thought Stirlitz.
The boundaries of the permitted can be crossed more quickly by expressing your views and position. But it's safer to share the link to the fake news than to remember the painters plastering the inscriptions.
:)
It's just a little joke.
:))) 0.64 is just a joke...
like 60 - does not look funny. when the time comes to buy another batch of resources it will really hurt, right?
For example, if you push the gold up, it will be very unprofitable.
If you add up the cost of paper, ink, workers compensation, transportation costs and other costs associated with the printing activities, then yes, about 50-60 rubles a dollar is worth and it does not matter what its face value.
....
I think the dollar is somewhere around 100 stops and gradually will slide to 80 and will continue to stay in this corridor. Our exporters benefit from the cheap ruble. They used to sell for dollars and then exchange them for roubles when needed. The more expensive the dollar, the more roubles they used to get. Now they will get rid of this necessity, but now it will be just the opposite, buyers of our exports will be exchanging dollars for rubles and using them to pay. No matter how you look at it, our exporters will still benefit from a ruble which is cheap relative to the dollar.
If you add up the cost of paper, ink, workers' compensation, transportation costs and other costs associated with printing activities, then yes, approximately 50-60 rubles a dollar and costs no matter what its denomination.
Ie 60 rubles per 100 dollar sheet?
That's about 0.60 kopecks.
sofa level experts 😁 google "average cost per bill printing" before you make such pearls 😉
selling for roubles is an original move but they are depriving themselves of foreign exchange earnings 😃 that's a strategy
That's 60 rubles for a $100 sheet?
That's about 0.60 kopecks.
Not per sheet, but for a note of no matter what denomination.
This is roughly how I estimated the cost of printing one note, maybe a little more expensive I can't say for sure because the paper is especially protected, and even with watermarks.
One opinion is this:
-Exporters and commodity companies will outperform the market:
- Metallurgists (Nornickel, RUSAL, NLMK)
- Gold miners (Polyus)
- Oil & Gas (Lukoil, Rosneft, Tatneft, etc.)
- ALROSA
For them the geopolitical factor is offset by the weak ruble and higher commodity prices. Later, after the opening of all the securities, the coal miners are capable of showing strong dynamics.
- Thefollowing companies, focused on the domestic market, will be worse than the market:
- Banks (Sberbank, VTB)
- Telecoms (MTS, Rostelecom)
- Power industry (Inter RAO, RusHydro)
- Developers (PIK)
With representatives of the IT industry added to the bidding, this sector may also be under pressure.
Of the 33 securities admitted to trading, 17 are export-oriented and 16 are domestic-oriented.
Some securities may open on the lows, which will be widened later. As the MosExchange Index declines by 15%, a discrete auction of all securities could be triggered. In this case, limit bids are collected for 30 minutes and no market-executed bids are accepted and the session resumes after half an hour.
Market support factors
- Purchases by the Russian Ministry of Finance - a programme for RUB 1 trillion has been announced.
- Lack of sales by non-residents. In 2021, their share of stock market turnover on the Moscow Exchange was 48%
- Psychology: if there are purchases by the Ministry of Finance without sales by non-residents, many will have no desire to sell
- Rising commodity prices
- The weakening of the rouble
- Investor desire to buy shares to save money from inflation (important driver!)
- Positive start in OFZ trading Yields were lower than expected. The entire government bond curve is under the key rate of 20%.
Factors in favour of the fall
- General deterioration in the external background and sanctions
- Rising interest rates
- Margin calls which will cause a large overhang of sell orders
What else matters on the first day
- In the first minutes you can assess the scale of the move, while not making hasty decisions.
- After the opening, we will try to assess if there is a big buyer in the blue chips (Ministry of Finance). If there will be support, it is better to buy only the most liquid papers. Thus, in 2008. VEB was buying shares of Gazprom, Sberbank, Rosneft, Lukoil, Nornickel, VTB, Surgutneftegaz, etc.
- After the active phase of closing margin positions is over, the equity market is capable of rebounding significantly. First of all, due to shares of exporters.
- At the beginning of trading there will be a lot of those wishing to make transactions after a long pause. High load on infrastructure of the Moscow stock exchange and brokers is inevitable. Delays with transactions are possible.
- Caution should be exercised when using buy/sell orders "at the market" due to high volatility. It is better to use limit orders (transactions at specific levels).
- The price volatility in the next few days will be high and you should take that into account when deciding whether to use stop orders or not. They can trigger very quickly.
- Make decisions based on long-term plans and expectations. A collapse in certain equities could be an interesting entry point into safe-haven securities for the long term.
The Bank of Russia has ordered that Russian securities should not be traded by non-residents. This restriction is likely to remain in place when the market opens, so sales by non-residents will be prohibited. In 2021, they accounted for 48% of Moscow Exchange's total turnover. These market participants will not be able to sell their assets, but they are unlikely to buy either, given the current restrictions and risks.
High rouble commodity prices are a strong driver for the shares of Russian exporters. MMC Norilsk Nickel, RUSAL, Gazprom, ALROSA, PhosAgro, Akron, oil companies, coal miners and steelmakers are all beneficiaries of high prices. As inflation accelerates, these companies' securities act as protectors, which will create additional demand from investors.
Expensive raw materials and a weak rouble are supportive factors for Russian exporters. As this sector accounts for more than 60% of the structure of the Moscow Exchange Index, in fact, the entire market will also receive support.
The combination of factors suggests that the market will split apart. Of the 33 securities, half will look stable and the other half will be under pressure.
At the same time, an all-out fall with a broad front, as happened on European platforms with almost "zeroed out" depositary receipts, will be avoided. With no sales by non-residents and with a big potential buyer in the hands of the Ministry of Finance, investors will look cautiously towards purchases, with the main focus being on exporters' shares.
Bank stocks may drop significantly (more than 20%) if there is no ironclad support from the Ministry of Finance. Oil & gas stocks in the aggregate are capable of shedding 5-20% on margin calls, but then are able to rebound. And non-oil and gas exporters, mainly due to the resilience of NorNickel, will resist a big drop.
Some securities, in particular metals and oil and gas stocks, could be on the upside by the end of the session. Surgutneftegaz prefs are highly likely to rise, benefiting both from high oil prices and the ruble's revaluation.