Looking for patterns - page 133
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Don't blame it on others. That's what I used to think too. And it turns out that the main reason why traders lose is the traders themselves. Even having a first-class trading system does not mean you will trade profitably. I know it myself. I've been trying to increase my deposits for a long time now. As long as I stick to the system the account grows. When I fall off the wagon and start playing around, the account is gone. I just need to hold out for a year and my account will grow by 1000 times. But it's not real yet. The reason is discipline. The maximum result is that I have managed to go almost halfway, to increase the account by 1000 times, the account increased 28 times in 4 months. And the reason for the drain is still the same. My own fault. I got carried away. Here's a look at the account before we lost.
Staying ahead of the crowd
It's time to get ahead of the schedule, not the crowd. )
It's time to get ahead of the schedule, not the crowd. )
It's definitely not going to work out that way.
It's impossible to predict whether there will be more buyers or sellers.
If there is a large preponderance, for example, of the sellers, you can definitely predict - the price will go up
But at the moment when the volumes are almost equal, the regulator's work is felt, it starts to work and control the crowd, you may say, manually
and whether the price will turn around or not, only he knows.
Can I get a screenshot?
Here's a screenshot from earlier, with a slightly longer calculation period.
But that's just a test sketch for now.
Here's a screenshot, with a slightly longer calculation period.
But this is just a test sketch for now.
The sketches look like a grail.
1 tick ahead.
the outline looks like a grail.
1 tick ahead
No, it's too early to think about it, until I achieve a more or less stable variance, over a longer calculation period.
A couple of hours of quiet reflection overnight led to the idea that it is impossible to separate trend and flat online. It cannot be done in a binary way: here is a trend and here is a flat. Because as soon as we make sure it's a trend, it reverses and becomes a flat of another order or continues. It's a continuous process of one thing changing into another. You can only say this: here it is more trend than flat. And to calculate the percentage of probability of one and the residue of the other. Correspondingly, if estimation of the situation is not discrete but continuous, the order opening should resemble a continuous (nearly) process with more or less lot size depending on the probability.
This sounds like overnight nonsense, but.... To think about it, you have to think about it.
And on the issue of the flat indicator, you need to put aside the daytime noise to understand whether the price is going somewhere or not.
Alexei seems to be right again. The market is random. Or almost... or completely.
The market is not random, but it is oscillating. The trend is weekly due to the fact that traders get paid once a week, at the end of the week. Therefore, I understand and like this trend. Next comes the reverse trend, conditioned by the same traders.
The monthly trend has other roots, so does the daily trend.
The main thing, it seems to me, is to understand the physics of the process: why it is so and not otherwise.
The more I think about it, the more I doubt the market's manageability. Why would the promoter banks and other liquidity dispensers want to reverse the price? Why would they set themselves up? Sit on their asses and collect commission. Sell down - commission, buy up commission. Why run a risky probabilistic business when there is a 100% risk-free one? Well, yes, if the stray money comes in handy: closing counter bids, transferring from account to account, and other tricks, why not take it. But the basis - service for money of those who want to make money on the occasional market.
As the Italian classic says, "Bet on black, bet on red, it'll fall out anyway." Yes, the market happens, gentlemen. I was wrong.
By supplying liquidity to a brokerage bank, a market maker, or a group of various market makers-banks (money doesn't just lie around in the market. With private individuals of any kind, all through banks) involved in trading, goes and goes against the market. They do it all the time, lending against commission or swap, or spread liquidity on demand. It behaves martingale, against the market.
And near the very end, at the top or the bottom of the trend, a decent lot is accumulated from those who are constantly coming in and waiting for the moment of fixation, which brings it to the breakeven point for him and to the point where traders start to fix their positions in the trend. He reverses the course with some scares (short-term orders of frighteningly large lot) and reaches his breakeven point with TP.
The TP is not closed immediately, not by a single order. At this point (range) of the rate, traders, seeing a hopelessness of further trend, start reversing operations.
After he makes a profit, he quietly continues to work against the market in the same manner. Most likely, Expert Advisors written not for MQL4.5 are working there.
Those who do not fit into this friendly pattern of reciprocal agreements are out of luck. The inexperienced and negligent ones.
Market makers in London start working with the opening of the London session. The pattern of movement, say GBPUSD, changes.
In short. Personally, I think so. :)
The weekly trend is due to the fact that traders get paid once a week, at the end of the week. Therefore, I understand and love this trend.
I love this forum because you learn a lot of new things.
What comes next is the opposite trend, caused by the same traders.
They drank their salaries and started losing money and the trend reversed.
The monthly trend has other roots, the daily trend has another one too.
The daily trend is clear. You had a hearty lunch - the trend is up, fish day - down trend.
And the monthly trend seems to have gender roots. Female traders turn it on critical days.
I love this forum for learning new things.
The paycheck is gone, the trend has reversed.
Well, daytime, I get it. Had a hearty lunch - trend is up, fishy day - down trend.
And the monthly trend seems to have gender roots. Female traders turn it around on critical days.
Your wit is off the charts.