Regularity or Randomness - page 58

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Alexander_K:

Consequently, the Market is able to break anyone's back.

The market is totally indifferent to you, it doesn't care if you exist or not. The market is not malicious and it is not going to break anything. He does not see you at all, you are not in his life.
You break your own backbone with your own hands). It's not the locomotive's fault that it ran over anyone.
The stupidity is off the charts).
 
Yuriy Asaulenko:
The market is totally indifferent to you; it doesn't care if you are there or not. The market is not malicious and it is not going to break anything. He does not see you at all, you are not in his life.
You break your own backbone with your own hands). It's not the locomotive's fault that it ran over someone.
Stupidity is off the charts.)
Look, if he doesn't share the grail, you'll be biting your elbows.
 
In general what is clear at the moment:

1-there is an algorithm that the price develops, it is not known (there is no formula to generate a price chart). After the same number of iterations, the chart will take the same shape on any instrument.

2-Instruments differ by types: commodity - there is emission and consumption; shares - no emission, no consumption, currency inflation; currency - there is emission, which leads to inflation. Correspondingly, the model should be corrected for the instrument type.

3 - the chart shape is distorted by incorrect discretization by time. If we discretize by ticks, it's wrong too. Ideally, it should be discretized by the number of iterations, and then each symbol will have similar areas.

4 - the market is self-similar, the patterns that can be met on a large scale can also be met on a small scale. The closest analogy is the Weirstrasse function, but it's only suitable as an analogy because it is also self-similar.

What is not clear:
1 - what to take for iteration? A transaction or any operation of placing/removing orders
2 - iterations may be performed not only in the market, when the market is closed, the asset price may be overestimated and there may be a gap at the opening.
3 - is it possible to get rid of sampling noise and how? That is, how can we restore the original signal shape when we have high redundancy?
 
Uladzimir Izerski:

I don't know. Can it be considered a pattern if price bounces off the next level?

Continuation of the picture from post.


There is only one reason why these price channels work. I calculated the data of the main trading sessions - European and American for the last 10 years. Altogether it turned out that on a daily timeframe during descending and ascending movement of the market the price opens almost exactly at 50% of the previous movement and then goes further in the direction of the trend.
And the number of trend candlesticks of this type over the last 10 years on EURUSD is 87.5%. Therefore, the probability that the price bounces back more than 50% from the previous day on a daily timeframe is less than 12.5%.
This evident probability is absent in any other timeframe, only in the daily one, and only if we analyze only the European and American trading sessions.
And these same pullbacks just mark the boundaries of price channels.
The problem is that they are very difficult to identify in time and correctly...
The only way to make a profit is to predict those exact channel edges based on the preceding price movement. Once the boundary is formed, its effectiveness is reduced.
 
Martin_Apis_Bot Cheguevara:
Such price channels work for one reason only. I calculated the data of the main trading sessions - European and American for the last 10 years. It turned out that on the downside and upside movement of the market on the daily timeframe the price opens almost exactly at 50% of the previous movement and then goes further in the direction of the trend.
Moreover, the number of trend candlesticks of this type over the last 10 years on EURUSD is 87.5%. Therefore, the probability that the price rolls back by more than 50% from the previous day on the daily timeframe is less than 12.5%.
This evident probability is absent in any other timeframe, only in the daily one, and only if we analyze only the European and American trading sessions.
And these same pullbacks just mark the boundaries of price channels.
The problem is that it's very difficult to determine them in time and correctly.
The only way to make a profit is to predict those exact channel edges based on the preceding price movement. When the boundary is formed, its efficiency decreases.

There is a formula for constructing such channels. But I can't put it on the public display. That would be wrong.

What are these channels good for? Limiters and the first time the price touches the boundary.

That's right.Once the boundary is formed, its effectiveness is reduced. Short stops will help. Better yet, a good oscillator.

 

Some time ago I started writing about how demo ==real.

Today, I am an ardent opponent of this expression.

Demo and real are completely different things, like Heaven and Earth, despite the same price. The real price is copied on the demo but it is exclusively formed on the real.

This is a pattern that I would emphasise with particular importance.

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

There is a formulaA for building such channels. But I can't put it on public display. It wouldn't be right.

What are these channels good for? Limiters and the first touch of the boundary.

That's right.Once the boundary is formed, its effectiveness is reduced. Short stops will help. Better yet, a good oscillator.

Those mysterious formulas again:)
 
Renat Akhtyamov:

Some time ago I started writing about how demo ==real.

Today, I am an ardent opponent of that expression.

Demo and real are completely different things, like heaven and earth, despite the same price. In spite of the fact that the price is the same in spite of the fact that your orders are similar.

This is a pattern that I would emphasise with the utmost importance.

Explain the practical value of your statement...

Everyone knows that the DC has internal mechanisms to DELAY your orders ... + spread ...

So what gives the OVERALL TRADER a negligible delay in price appearance...even the Scalper...?

 
Serqey Nikitin:

Explain the practical value of your statement...


These data can shed light on one of the vexing mysteries of modern cosmology: why the values ofthe Hubble constant obtained by different methods differ from each other.

 
Serqey Nikitin:

Explain the practical value of your statement...


Really?

The man came in from the factory, had a few beers and thought I'd write something clever on the forum.

Didn't turn out clever.

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