Unfortunately, I am unable to create
a blog so I have created this thread until blog services are fixed, at which
point this thread will be transferred to my blog.
I used to be a manual trader for a long time: https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/179446
However, I no longer
enjoy the relentless screen time and general stress that goes hand in hand with
manual trading. My solution was to
become very good at translating my manual trading knowledge to the creation of
automated trading systems. Most good and
a few bad: 90% good, 10% bad.
A second approach I recently attempted was to diversify some
manual traded signals for sale on this website: MQL5.COM. I subscribed to them
and was quite shocked. I was not shocked
by the drawdown, which was more than I am used to, but I was shock by the
absence of the foundations of trading skill:
No risk to return mentality
an absence of the significance of support and
no awareness of market structure encapsulated in
the notion of the higher high, higher low, lower high lower low.
The list is very long and I do not want to bore you...too
Probability theory alone tells you a blind Monkey with
Herpes can have a run of trading success for months if trading with no
stop-loss and a relatively small profit target between 5 to 100 pips. The run of success will end of course,
normally in a painful way.
This thread is educational and the aim is to educate thread
members in the correct way to manually take pips from the market. It will be suited to all grade and types of
It will suit the busy professional who only has
15 minutes before breakfast to place his/her trade before leaving for the
It will suit the busy mother/father who has to
be up and down feeding the baby and cleaning the house;
It will suit the trader who has the commitment
but has never been shown the direction;
It will suit those who are tired of getting
their account blown by service providers;
it will suit those who are tired of blowing
their own account.
It will not suit those with large egos who have an
irrational desire to feel more important than others; if you fit into this
group, please find another thread...you know who you are!
Basically, this is a course for all. You know the old clique that goes something
like: "Give a (wo)man a fish, and you feed (her) him for a day. Teach a
(wo)man to fish, and you feed (her)him for a lifetime." Allow me to teach you how to fish for pips so
you don't have to suffer ridiculously high draw downs by the trading hands of
There are methods and techniques the professional use to
fish for pips. One of these methods is
the Andrews Pitchfork. I am a long-term
student of Dr. Timothy Morge and Dr. Mircea Dologa; they are in turn long-term
students of Dr. Alan Andrews the father of the Andrews Pitchfork. This will be a fast-paced blog and this is
the only acknowledgement I can give to the three trading mentors.
Normally, course on the Andrews Pitchfork start off by
explaining how to correctly draw a Pitchfork.
I find that students lose valuable time starting at this point and it is
something you will pick up as you watch my analysis and trades. I draw my Pitchforks using the manual tool
supplied in MetaTrader. For this course,
I will be using the FREE JJN-AutoPitchfork found at this location: https://www.mql5.com/en/code/10213
Market structure visuals will be draw using the semafor
indicator attached to this post.
It will be good for you if you spend 5 minutes downloading
the JJN-AF & Semafor and attaching
it to a chart. You don't have to
understand it at this point, just find out how the indicators works.
The analysis that leads to trading decisions will be
conducted here. The trades made will be
tracked here in a signal. . You
will get the most from the posts if you subscribe to the signal so you are able
to read the posts then see the trades executes in real time ; this approach
will truly embed the material in your mind.
A less effective alternative is not to subscribe and review the trades
after they appear in the history; there will be a lag between the posts and the
trades using the second approach which may lead to the reader always trying to
catch up. The choice is yours.
The trading focus will be the following pairs in this order:
EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, USDCHF. I
normally just look at the EURUSD but if no opportunity exists on the Pitchfork
we may have to look elsewhere. However,
we deliberately keep the pair list small so we can develop analytic expertise
that relates to this small group.
Development of expertise would not be possible with a large list.
We are small stop-loss traders:
we say thank you to the market when it presents
us with an opportunity to lose 2 pips but gain a high probability 10 to 20 pips
we say thank you to the market when it offers us
terms of 5 to 10 pip loss for a high probability 20 to 50 pip gain;
we say thank you to the market when it offers us
terms of 10 to 15 pips loss for a high probability 50 to 100 pip gain;
on rare occasions the market will offer 1 to 2
pip loss terms for 100+ pip gain.
As Pitchfork traders we take those trades and when stopped
out chuckle and say "wow that was one good offer" I am looking
forward to the next one. We know the
stop-loss is just part of this lucrative game and we disassociate from traders who
think having a winning percentage of 95% with a drawdown percentage of 60% to
95% is the way to enduring wealth. The
only one who gets wealthy from such a percentage is the signal provider; in
many cases if you sum the gains of the subscriber winners with the losses of
the subscriber losers it will equal zero minus commission and swaps.
When our PLANNED stop-losses are hit, we pat each other on
the back. We have no time for the 95%
winning percentage gang in here.
Pitchfork traders take steps to control their emotions. The primary step I use is to trade a very
small balance account between £50 to £100, I then use a free trade copier on a
VPS to copy my small balance trades to my main account using the money
management scheme of 15 pips stop-loss and risk 1.5% a trade. Again, trading is not an ego game; it is a psychological
money game. I have no interest in
viewing my real-time gains and losses on my main account because it increases
the probability of influencing my trading decision; I am interested in having
the correct trading plan and accepting the best terms, the market offers.
At the beginning of each month, I'll will post scenarios for
On Sundays, I will publish the week ahead scenario clearly
stating the Pivot above which is long only and below which is short only. Each day I will give the bull bear dividing
price and two levels, one above and one below price; the price will touch one
of these levels 90% of the time.
The above is a simple introduction to this education
thread. I hope you enjoy the journey and
I would be grateful if we all can be respectful and polite. I am not here to compete or play big ego
games, such things just get in the way of pip generation.
View the signal subscription fee as a monthly course fee; subscribers'
get preferential treatment with regard to the speed of direct message replies
etc. I am a capitalist after all.
Price pivots general exist at the swing low and swing high. However, they appear in many other places as well.
GLOBAL (Monthly, Weekly, Daily) BUT ACT LOCAL (H4, H1, M30, M15)!!!
range: 245 PIPS
Dividing line: 1.201
Monthly we chart.
1. We can see price approach the Pitchfork Median BLUE Line and fail to extent above it, instead price formed an upward sloping failure and produced a price pivot. The general rule at this point is price will proceed to move lower to test the lower Pitchfork blue medium line. In order to test the lower median line price has to pass through a multi-year balancing point highlighted in the white rectangle. Price attacked the balancing point last month and was beaten back which confirms the market is aware of the multi-year balancing point.
2. The monthly bull/bear dividing line is 1.1201 and the week ended 2 pip above that level at 1.1203. It is a strong level so price making it above that level with momentum points to a move up next week in the direction of the forecast monthly high at 1.1323.
EURUSD: THINK GLOBAL (Monthly, Weekly, Daily) BUT ACT LOCAL (H4, H1, M30, M15)!!!
Week beginning 5/5/19:
Forecast range: 158 PIPS
Forecast High: 1.1282
Forecast Low: 1.1144
Bull/Bear Dividing line: 1.1213
There is a 90% probability that either 1.1282 or 1.1144 will be touched next week.
I'm sure we are all aware of the ugly FORMING head and shoulder pattern on the weekly. If not it is a good thing to keep in the back of your mind.
The more recent weekly bars are interesting. It is interesting the way the price action is respecting the Pitchfork like an obedient husband or wife. HOWEVER, the thing that jumps out the most to me is the price inside the circles named "compare". Each weekly low crossed over the Pitchfork media line, the penultimate bar hand a real stab at crossing over but failed BUT LOOK AT THE LAST BAR. A clear buying strength gap between the weekly bar and the median line.
So I am basically building a picture of price using the global time frames. PLEASE NOTE: using the yellow SEMAFOR starts as your guide it can be clearly seen no bullish price swings have occurred yet. Yes price has moved higher but we haven't enjoyed a period of swing higher highs and swing higher low. We are waiting for price to move higher than the last swing high to confirm the trend reversal. This is the case for all timeframes except the M1. In this context the above early scenarios are counter trend plays and a significant number of probability points have to be deducted for all counter trend plays.
Reviewing the charts the GBPUSD also has the same issue: there are good signs of a bull move but we'd need to trade against the trend.
The above scenarios are still valid for the gunslingers. However, it is prudent to move to a more accommodating pair like the USDCHF or GBPJPY until the EURUSD trading setups match the direction of the prevailing trend or in otherwards we'll only consider long plays when when we have a confirmed bullish swings. And EURUSD short are off the table until price is below 1.1201.
That's a lot of analysis for no trade but better this than a 20% to 40% drawdown, right?
USDCHF or GBPJPY will be looked at tomorrow.
I created a demo MT4 account to track random trades with a profit target of 4 pips. Let's see if this no skill random strategy can last longer and generate more return than some who claim to have 76000 hours of screen time. I'll post performance here on weekly basis.
Pitchfork scalping starts each day at 17:00 GMT. I am not sure how much I'll be able to post while scalping so let's see how it goes.
A few points to help re-establish your rationality and sanity which must have been completely screwed up following many BMWH signals.
I hope the above points resonate with a few of you.
Warming up for London Open:
I'm still finding my feet, remember the market is the boss. The market gives us the direction and we follow, normally the market will pay you a very generous salary. HOWEVER, if you try to direct the market, the boss will invite you to the shower room!!
What you should be asking yourself is: "why the f*&k have these fools got me in position without any stop-loss protection when it is easy to only risk 2 to 5 pips for a 15 to 30 pip payout." Well, that is what the smart are thinking.
THE OBJECTIVE OF THE GAME IS NOT TO MAKE MONEY REGARDLESS OF RISK!!! THE OBJECTIVE OF THE GAME IS TO BE IMMEDIATELY IN A PROFITABLE POSITION, TO MOVE THE STOP TO BREAK EVEN AS SOON AS THE MARKET TELLS YOU THEN TO MAKE 2 TO 2O TIMES WHAT YOU RISKED IN THE FIRST PLACE...WAKE UP!!!!!
Stopped out!!! Who cares? A few pips lost for a good setup to gain a potential 30 pips. Thank you Mr. Market for the opportunity to gain from such a wonderful setup.
Controlled loss accepted.
The thing about trading for 10 times your risk, the small losses really become a triviality. The price may then turn and go in the correct direction but who cares? There will be dozens of these opportunities each week. No point beating yourself up for protecting your capital and then watch the price move to what was your profit target, no point at all. This is part of the low risk trading game. Would you prefer no stop-loss and to hope and pray price will move in your direction? If yes, the market is waiting for you in the shower-room, don't miss the appointment.
It is worth repeating: below the monthly pivot of 1.1201 and weekly pivot at 1.1213 and daily pivot at 1.1192 = NO LONG TRADES WILL BE TAKEN AT THIS LEVEL. EYEBALLS ON THE POTENTIAL LOW OF THE DAY AT 1.1157!!!
NOT MY ACCOUNT: This is the sort of thing that happens when traders haven't learn to be comfortable taking losses or have the misguied notion that being right is more important than protecting capital: 68% drawdown:
21% Drawdown - I cannot begin to understand why anyone calling themselves a "trader" would allow a position to move 400 pips against them for a potential 60 pip gain; 20 PhDs not require to understand that right? Fear of taking losses and more important to be right then to protect capital even if that means losing all the capital:
Draw the dotted micro pitchfork for short-term clarity and scenario generation. Price may break for the horizontal white line then reverse downwards.
However, below 1.1188 (blue line) short has to be entered. Well after price breaks then retests it.
FOR THE SWINGERS: