Trading the Andrews Pitchfork with Max - page 4

[Andrea Connelly]

Max Brown:

I'm done.  I will wait for another opportunity later in the week.

Posting with no feedback is weird and will obviously lead to a person posting less and less.  So if you have any questions just ask. 

Cheers

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Reminder for self:

EURUSD:-

Below: 1.1201 Bearish to Forecast monthly Low: 1.1078

1.1201 no man's land.

Above 1.1213 Bullish to Forecast monthly High: 1.1323

• let profits run;
• don't widen stops; losing 2 pips pays in the long run;
• respect the pivot;
• consider market structure; consider market profile overlay;
• reset account size daily by withdrawing profits;
• let the price come to you; don't chase price.

Hi Max, 

I would like to thankyou for the posts, I am trying to absorb all the information you are providing. With the above monthly forecast where would you set the stop loss? 

Note to self points not pips 😊

Once again I am grateful to all your work

Andrea

[Max Brown]

Andrea Connelly:
Hi Max, 

I would like to thankyou for the posts, I am trying to absorb all the information you are providing. With the above monthly forecast where would you set the stop loss? 

Note to self points not pips 😊

Once again I am grateful to all your work

Andrea

Hi Andrea,

For the monthly forecast there are a number of ways to set the stop-loss.  I will explain over the weekend.

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Scenario one is in play.

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90% probability 1.1170 or 1.1223 will be hit today.  Which will give us our trade direction for tomorrow.  Based on yesterday's price action probabilities favor 1.1170 opening the door to a much deeper fall, no guarantees, the boss does as she pleases.

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Short term: we are caught between scalpers heaven zones of 1.1196 to 1.1201 to 1.1213.  Scenario one.

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One for the swingers: Go short:    Stop loss at 1.1225, profit target at the forecast monthly low.   The stop-loss is too large for my taste.

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Note to self:

• keep the Cat out of the office;  it has a tendency to jump on the mouse and keyboard mid trade!  :)
• even the boss respects the Law of Large Numbers!!  MOST OF THE TIME!!!
• many times it is better to sell lower and buy higher!

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[Max Brown]

Week beginning 5/5/19:

Forecast range: 158 PIPS

Forecast High: 1.1282

Forecast Low: 1.1144

Bull/Bear Dividing line: 1.1213

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It is Wednesday, based on the Law of Large Number; price has to make a play for the forecast high/low by the end of play Friday.   Probabilities still lean to the downside.  We need to destroy the daily pivot at 1.1196!!!! Otherwise we are trapped in scalper's paradise.

1.1196 was broken but held but does create a new confirmed down swing/trend micro market structure on the 5min.  If the boss can be so kind as to lock in as many buyers as possible then plummet price like a large rock off a Mountain top...I'm okay with that.  :)

Fibonacci 1.1618 extenstion is at approx' 1.1170 which coincides nicely with our forecast daily low.

So I am looking ahead thinking about take profit levels.  I've been leaving far too many pips (or points to the new school) on the table.  I have 1.1170 to take profits or do I hold back since price may reach the forecast weekly low at 1.1144.  Hmmmmm....I think the logical approach is to take profits should price reach 1.1170 then to reenter the short should price have a Fib retrace of 0.618 to 1.1195 to target 1.1144.  Scenarios complete.   No guarantee price will reach 1.1170 because the boss does whatever she wants.

[Max Brown]

Taking profits too early:

However, I am very out of practice!!  And we are still doing quite well.  On the positive side, the interpretation of the GBPJPY runaway gap (in a post earlier and see Dr. Mircea Dologa's book for the definition) was very much on point!!!

[Max Brown]

State of the forex union:

• I wanted to enter short at A but was prevented taking the entry because of the potential support by PF median line B.
• I opted to take the short at a lower price after B had been broken and price managed to break a little market structure at D.
• Sell limit: I will add to the position at E, since the penetration of both B and D was so convincing.  If I manage to get my sell limit filled at E, I will have two profit targets: 1.1170 and 1.1144.
• ALL protected by a stop-loss 1 pip above A.  We prefer to be alive tomorrow.

[Max Brown]

GBPJPY:  One last time before assigning the trade to the past and a learning experience.

[Max Brown]

Bagged a few pips. Moved stop-loss to break-even+commission on the remainder.  Opted to bag a few so I can re enter short again should price move back to retest the 1.1200 area.  The boss may decide to retest the 1.1204 to 1.1194 twenty or thirty times before tanking south, who knows?   All we know is we need deposit load availability to take advantage should that scenario come to fruition.    

Personally, I think the price is going to tank (go down) HARD AND FAST; but who cares what I think...I am just an employee of the boss: I follow, she leads.

• or do I think the EURUSD is going to tank because of the a lingering impact of cutting the GBPJPY profits short!!!  Why do I mention this?  You need to be aware that not following plans resulting in missing opportunities or being stopped out too early etc...is likely to have a negative influence on short-term future trading decisions whether you're aware of it or not.  The best we can do is to follow plans as closely as possible thereby minimising the negative influence on future decisions.

[Max Brown]

Short stopped out at breakeven.

1. Surprisingly the boss is telling me to go long, I have no choice, orders must be followed - H4 (Don't become a prisoner of what you think will or would like to happen):
2. Secondly, stop-losses should be placed at the precise location you'd be willing to take the opposite (flipped) position.
3. Can you see how the focus on the winning percentage completely removes the trader's operational flexibility and leads to decision paralysis?
4. I think we have to conclude: although the monthly Pivot at 1.1201 has contained and resisted price quite well since Monday, it is weakening.  If is was an insurmountable obstacles, price should have tested it followed by a very strong price rejection (price going down fast).  This has not happened, each test penetrates the monthly pivot by a greater degree.  The boss is telling me that buying strength is growing and the bears are almost exhausted.  However, no guarantees because I may have misinterpreted her instructions. 

[Max Brown]

Stop move to BE (break-even) plus a few pips.  

I want to buy higher up, I prefer straight into profit quickly moves.  Stopped out for a few pips at the white line 5min chart.  REMEMBER: price pivots do not form easily in a strong directional move.

• Short again!  Remember when I wrote place stop-losses at the precise location you'd be willing to reverse your trade?  I'll take a break after this trade.
• Do you remember the thing about winning percentage and flexibility.  I do not care about winning percentage only account growth with minimal drawdown.
• The clues are mirky today so switching to a Dr. Timothy Morge perspective.  I will only focus on the latest (newest) Andrews Pitchfork and disregard the others (30min).
• Dr. T Morge's method gives us a profit target of 1.11685 and stop-loss of 1.12079: short entry at 1.12016.  I will simply leave this trade to do it's thing and I will go do other things, Morge styleeee!!!

[Max Brown]

Move stop within a few pips of the entry price.  Looking to add one more short.  Too much thinking and work today for my taste.

Second short filled @ 1.12016 - 2 pip SL (or 20 points)

The monthly Pivot still prevents the price moving directionally.  At least we know when the price finally break away from it's magnetic grip, it is likely to continue in that direction.  Scalpers' paradise.

Down 0.3% today.  No big deal.  I have a 2% daily loss limit.

Today, I've placed too many trades in anticipation of the break away from the monthly pivot; this error will cost me some demo time.  I have 2 shorts open, if stopped out that will bring me close to my daily loss limit.  Basically, no more trades for me today.  Tomorrow, I will only trade if price has moved far enough away from the monthly Pivot (1.1201) because it's magnetic influence is simply playing havoc with my analysis.  90% probability of price touches either 1.1170 or 1.1223 at some point today, you guess is as good as mine.  Today has pretty much been the scalpers' paradise described this morning. 

To sum up: monthly Pivot has led to horrid price action.  I'll wait for price to escape it's grip before making any trades tomorrow.  Account in the green overall but down for today (probably around 1.6% down).

Note: Tim Morge use to trades for Countries...yes entire Countries via Sovereign Funds.  Even Tim has losing days.