I'm done. I will wait for another opportunity later in the week.
Posting with no feedback is weird and will obviously lead to a person posting less and less. So if you have any questions just ask.
Reminder for self:
Below: 1.1201 Bearish to Forecast monthly Low: 1.1078
1.1201 no man's land.
Above 1.1213 Bullish to Forecast monthly High: 1.1323
For the monthly forecast there are a number of ways to set the stop-loss. I will explain over the weekend.
Scenario one is in play.
90% probability 1.1170 or 1.1223 will be hit today. Which will give us our trade direction for tomorrow. Based on yesterday's price action probabilities favor 1.1170 opening the door to a much deeper fall, no guarantees, the boss does as she pleases.
Short term: we are caught between scalpers heaven zones of 1.1196 to 1.1201 to 1.1213. Scenario one.
One for the swingers: Go short: Stop loss at 1.1225, profit target at the forecast monthly low. The stop-loss is too large for my taste.
Note to self:
Week beginning 5/5/19:
Forecast range: 158 PIPS
Forecast High: 1.1282
Forecast Low: 1.1144
Bull/Bear Dividing line: 1.1213
It is Wednesday, based on the Law of Large Number; price has to make a play for the forecast high/low by the end of play Friday. Probabilities still lean to the downside. We need to destroy the daily pivot at 1.1196!!!! Otherwise we are trapped in scalper's paradise.
1.1196 was broken but held but does create a new confirmed down swing/trend micro market structure on the 5min. If the boss can be so kind as to lock in as many buyers as possible then plummet price like a large rock off a Mountain top...I'm okay with that. :)
Fibonacci 1.1618 extenstion is at approx' 1.1170 which coincides nicely with our forecast daily low.
So I am looking ahead thinking about take profit levels. I've been leaving far too many pips (or points to the new school) on the table. I have 1.1170 to take profits or do I hold back since price may reach the forecast weekly low at 1.1144. Hmmmmm....I think the logical approach is to take profits should price reach 1.1170 then to reenter the short should price have a Fib retrace of 0.618 to 1.1195 to target 1.1144. Scenarios complete. No guarantee price will reach 1.1170 because the boss does whatever she wants.
Taking profits too early:
However, I am very out of practice!! And we are still doing quite well. On the positive side, the interpretation of the GBPJPY runaway gap (in a post earlier and see Dr. Mircea Dologa's book for the definition) was very much on point!!!
State of the forex union:
GBPJPY: One last time before assigning the trade to the past and a learning experience.
Bagged a few pips. Moved stop-loss to break-even+commission on the remainder. Opted to bag a few so I can re enter short again should price move back to retest the 1.1200 area. The boss may decide to retest the 1.1204 to 1.1194 twenty or thirty times before tanking south, who knows? All we know is we need deposit load availability to take advantage should that scenario come to fruition.
Personally, I think the price is going to tank (go down) HARD AND FAST; but who cares what I think...I am just an employee of the boss: I follow, she leads.
Short stopped out at breakeven.
Stop move to BE (break-even) plus a few pips.
I want to buy higher up, I prefer straight into profit quickly moves. Stopped out for a few pips at the white line 5min chart. REMEMBER: price pivots do not form easily in a strong directional move.
Move stop within a few pips of the entry price. Looking to add one more short. Too much thinking and work today for my taste.
Second short filled @ 1.12016 - 2 pip SL (or 20 points)
The monthly Pivot still prevents the price moving directionally. At least we know when the price finally break away from it's magnetic grip, it is likely to continue in that direction. Scalpers' paradise.
Down 0.3% today. No big deal. I have a 2% daily loss limit.
Today, I've placed too many trades in anticipation of the break away from the monthly pivot; this error will cost me some demo time. I have 2 shorts open, if stopped out that will bring me close to my daily loss limit. Basically, no more trades for me today. Tomorrow, I will only trade if price has moved far enough away from the monthly Pivot (1.1201) because it's magnetic influence is simply playing havoc with my analysis. 90% probability of price touches either 1.1170 or 1.1223 at some point today, you guess is as good as mine. Today has pretty much been the scalpers' paradise described this morning.
To sum up: monthly Pivot has led to horrid price action. I'll wait for price to escape it's grip before making any trades tomorrow. Account in the green overall but down for today (probably around 1.6% down).
Note: Tim Morge use to trades for Countries...yes entire Countries via Sovereign Funds. Even Tim has losing days.