A-B-C-D Trade - page 291
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Pair traded with today's events, including 15:00 Bernanke testimony.
Attached is 30-min with Gann_SQ9. Obvious High/Low boundaries from 24th/27th bracketed range. Price reversed off the 24th high, the resistance point mentioned earlier.
Price declined in accordance to each data/event today, pausing at each Gann interval. The recent pivot low is at the 27th low and is area of the 90-degree level.
This low is also the 127.2% extension to the downside, when plotting with Feb 28th Low while maintaining today's High.
***
USD/CAD's move off aforementioned support was less spectacular. We are detecting a gap down now.
We omitted USD/CAD's bounce off support was yesterday 08:30 when price reached .9940 and within 5 pips.
Looking at the fibs on that chart, we can see bounce halt at the 38.2. Plot used Feb 20th/22nd Low/High. Max gain about 35 pips.
Attached is a 15-min with session colors, MurreyMath1.0 (MML), and HAS candles. Fib plot uses Asian High/Low.
Breakout of Asian Low 1.32642 during 08:30 candle period. S/L options include placement above just above 3/8th MML 1.32751, + cushion for 15-pip risk.
Conservative TP levels:
127.2 extension 1.32456 (about same as 2/8th MML) for +18 net pips
138.2 1.32382 for +24 net pips
Medium-impact data at 10:00 (EZ PPI). We can see the pair pivot up at the conservative TP levels.
If targeting gains below conservative levels, tight S/L in Forex often doesn't allow enough room for even mild fluctuations.
Price/retrace held at the Asian Low resistance, but would have taken out stops if tightened to a price below the Asian Low.
Other pivots occurred at the 1/8th MML and the 200% fib extension levels.
Switching the time-frame to 30-min reveals HAS candles all red en route down.
The Ehler's Fisher Transform indicator at the bottom is a histogram version. It is an all-purpose indicator.
When price is below the zero line, it acts like a HAS. The opposite color blue bars, when below the zero line, indicate small fluctuations in the short-term. This tells us the main trend is still to the downside.
Using the indicator HAMA T3 (not shown) would give a similar picture for main trend.
We've adjusted this to add more levels, past the 720.
Plot highs/lows on higher time-frames such as the daily. This indicator generates S&R Gann levels for day-trading or swing trading on lower time-frames.
If you are triggering off the higher time-frames, the other version SQ9(Price) 22.5 Factor 56 will offer a better view, with larger intervals between levels. That indicator should be in the Gann Is The Man thread.
...and the automatic version is the Gann_SQ9, which works off zig-zags.
Using the Bumasoft Aspectarian indicator, which can be downloaded free at their site, we plot turning points on the EUR/USD daily chart.
The 1st application uses setting of Mercury and Moon.
Set Planet 1 = 1 and Planet 2 = 2.
Aspect_angle is left at default 0 (zero).
Again, we filtered signals with RSI(4-Period), with 75/25 Overbought/Oversold levels, on the preceding day.
Vertical lines were placed by us at turning points that met the criteria. 8 out of the last 9 signals were successful.
The most recent signal, on Feb 26th, was also a turning point for our 2nd application of the indicator. This one is set on Mercury/Mars 180-degree aspect_angle.
Planet 1 = 2
Planet 2 = 4
Dates of the last 9 signals:
Aug 15, 2010
Oct 10
Feb 3, 2011
Mar 7
July 4
Aug 3
Oct 30
Jan 24, 2012*
Feb 26
Obviously it is up to the individual if they want to use other supporting tools. It all depends on the trading acumen of each trader. This is a basic and easy to understand application method.
Other signal dates were also valid but did not meet the preceding candle RSI OB/OS condition. Yet, an experienced trader can apply other tools to further assess their merit.
Fib plot using Low = 1.26314 High = 1.33212
Pullback was 50% during Feb 15th. Peak on Feb 24th 2012 was near the 127.2% extension. This would qualify as another confirmation, in the form of a fib extension and resistance level.
The Feb 26th candle was also a Doji, although the 2 hours of Sunday price data minimizes this impact.
Other options, that can also be used for the S/L, are the various SQ9 and Murrey Math indicators.
Applying the AstroIndicator4 (A4) to the same chart as just posted, set on Moon (body 1) and Mercury (body 2), generates turning points just one day earlier.
The A4 also provides an additional turning point in between. We posted application of this indicator in a previous EUR/USD daily chart on Feb 15th.
Attached are before and after pics of EUR/USD daily.
We plotted retracement fibs (yellow) based on last rally from 1.29732 to 1.34853.
We also have the MurreyMath1.0 levels (MML), and the A4 (Mercury-Moon) as recently posted using natal date 01.01.1999.
Fib time zone tool (white vertical lines) plotted from Feb 8th to Feb 23rd. These were the last 2 extremes on the A4 readings. This plot projected the 161.8 expansion to Sunday March 4th.
The Sunday candle was also at the 2/8th MML, and the 61.8 horizontal retrace fib, for support.
The 2nd chart shows price rising to the current 50% horizontal fib 1.32293, for a gain of approximately 60 pips for conservative exit.
Next resistance at the 38.2 1.32897. A red TP level is at 1.32750 to point out that level during past days.
EUR/USD with a large red candle in reaction to some mixed EU data at 10:00.
fib plot uses yesterday's low/high, which can be expressed as the B-C swings. Price made a 138.2 extension.
If using today's 04:00 low, then the 10:00 pivot low is the 200% extension. We refer to this as a "directional" plot, since the A-B swings (high/low) are in the direction of the move.
This is the week that contains several high-impact data releases, including BOE and ECB Interest Rate Decisions (and potentially market-moving verbiage).
The biggest is Friday's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate.
The Murrey Math indicators and methodology uses 1/8th, and was taken from Gann. We like to use the version MurreyMath1.0.
On the attached 1-hour USD/CAD, we also made a wide fib plot using the obvious Feb 27th high and Mar 1st low.
We saw yesterday's stall at the 6/8th MML .9948, and near the 50% fib. This was a previous support level, as marked by the white checks.
The precision "scalpers" would have tried to short there. With the TP at the 38.2 fib or 5/8th MMLL, which was about 24 gross pips.
A larger probe above the 6/8th would take out tight stops. Price did pop 10 pips above that level.
One technique is to enter when price drops below the 6/8th, after the probe. For stop-loss, add 3 or 4 pips above the .9958 high for spread/cushion.
Net R/R about 20/14. Pairs with USD at the end, such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD have a fixed $10 per pip value. Use an on-line calculator to get the exact dollar amount R/R for USD/CAD. You should still learn how to calculate manually.
We refer to this type of technique as "trading between the fibs", or between S&R.
***
USD/CAD just made it to the 78.6 retrace fib during the 10:15 period, probing to the 8/8th MML. We can see further effectiveness of the MML levels in the bounce down to the 7/8th.
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