A-B-C-D Trade - page 288
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AUD/USD just made its 161.8 extension. The attached chart is a 30-min with Keltner Channel (KC) HAS, and MML.
Although price is outside of the channel, and making a small retrace, why not hold out for the better bounce opportunity?
That would be the Feb 13th high of 1.0777, which is near 5/8th MML. Tight S/L and TP1 option back down to 4/8th of 1.0742.
Footnote: Reversal HAS at the 20:00 candle period.
Same indicators on GBP/USD. You can save it as a template of course.
This pair had BAJA bullish divergence at the bottom 19:30. Candle bodies respected 1/8th MML. Price re-entered Keltner Channel and turned blue starting with the 20:30 candle.
Low for S/L = 1.5643 (19:30)
Entry = 1.5653 + spread (20:30)
Peak thus far = 1.5734 (05:30)
161.8 extension = 1.5727 (05:30)
07:00 had mixed German GDP data. 09:30 through 10:30 contain other high-impact data. Be guided accordingly.
China just voiced support for Europe, naming possible investment in bailout fund.
AUD/USD just made its 161.8 extension. The attached chart is a 30-min with Keltner Channel (KC) HAS, and MML.Although price is outside of the channel, and making a small retrace, why not hold out for the better bounce opportunity?That would be the Feb 13th high of 1.0777, which is near 5/8th MML. Tight S/L and TP1 option back down to 4/8th of 1.0742.Footnote: Reversal HAS at the 20:00 candle period.
Here's the 30-min chart action on that reversal. Move just arrived at the 61.8% retrace fib (plot using Feb 15th 01:30 low). This fib can be seen on the 2nd chart split-screen.
Chart with HAS shows volume bars red on 4 blue candles during leg up to top, before decline.
An automatic trade can be used for these set-ups.
Our alarm sounded off as price approaching level for short.
Wolfe Wave on 4-hour. APF plotted on Points 1-3-4. That projects an upper fork line at about 1.0033. This is the resistance for short. Add AML_v1-1 for interior fibs.
Can add S&R with MML and/or retrace fib plot. Drop down to lower time-frame to get more levels on the MML.
Here's a 1-hour Standard Deviation Channel (SDC) plot, using Feb 3rd and Feb 8th highs.
The attached chart uses HAS candles with the wicks turned on. Price is approaching the SDC lower channel of 1715.
The MurreyMath1.0 generated 3/8th MML level at 1711, which acted as support on Feb 14th. S/L can be placed just below that.
TP targets include 5/8th MML 1726.
The CFD QQQ (Index for Nasdaq 100) Daily chart has Wolfe Wave's leg 5 just hitting upper 1-3 trendline today.
It has come down 100 points thus far. Plot APF at 1-4-5 with interior fibs for S&R.
As 08:00 is approaching, we has developing 4-hour Doji candles or almost colorless, on Gold and USD/CAD. Gold BUY did trigger per recent post.
With the European session also set to open at 08:00, we understand things can change very quickly. Check full economic calendar as usual.
The breaking new is Greece is seeking a bridge loan to make upcoming debt payments.
This means EUR/USD (and correlated pairs) and Gold pressured down.
USD/CAD rises.
This is negative both our examples. This is a world event and trumps the technical analysis, for now.
After the initial news on Greece and a possible bridge loan, market knee-jerked, but settled back into its course.
We outlined a plan for USD/CAD, with the Wolfe Wave indicator providing 4 swings on the 4-hour chart. We preceded to use that plot for our Andrew's Pitchfork (APF), plotting on Swing 1-3-4.
The short off the APF's upper fork at 1.0033 had to deal with the breaking Greece news and kneejerk. Waiting it out, the trader saw price drop back down below the upper fork.
That 4-hour chart is on the right of the attached split-screen chart. The retrace fib plot was of course form the low of swing 4 and peak of 1.0050.
We can see on this chart, price make a direct hit to the APF's middle fork. Knowlegable bounce traders also lurk in these locations.
The chart on the left is 30-min with PSQ9. We used the fib channel tool (FC) to plot extension levels in the downside direction, which was the anticipated direction.
The plot used the near-horizontal Mars 45 and 0-degree levels. The 15:00 candle closed at the FC 100, which is the 100% expansion. It is also the next Mars level down, the Mars 315-degree.
The diagonal Moon 225-degree slices through that area as well.
When we zoom in on this chart, we can see price close at the FC 31.4 during the 13:30 candle, which contained U.S. data release. That event was positive USD, and propelled pair further down.
The conservative trader:
- Entered at 11:00 about 1.0038, when price opened below the Mars 0-degree. This is basically the same price level as the Wolfe Wave's Swing 3.
- Exited at that FC 31.4 level 1.0019, ahead of data.
S/L just above high of 1.0050 + cushion = 1.0055. Risk = 17 pips
Reward = 19 pips.
Alternatively, the aggressive trader would move S/L to break-even before 13:30, and attempt to ride a possible further decline.
Taking profit at/near the APF middle fork (ahead of 15:00 data) .9993 + cushion = .9998 was reward of 40 pips.
Scenario 1 = R/R 1:1
Scenario 2 = R/R 2:1