Intraday trading signal - page 214
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AceTraderFx Dec 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
03 Dec 2015 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro erases part of its overnight gain in Asian morning following yesterday's intra-day rally from a fresh 7-1/2 month bottom of 1.0550 (interbank low) to 1.0627.
However, lack of following through buying in Australian morning prompted short-term specs to sell the euro in Asian trading.
Looks like we have seen a near term range set for now n euro is expected to 'gyrate' inside abovementioned New York range until ECB monetary policy announcement at 12:45GMT n then ECB President Draghi's press conference at 13:30GMT.
If Draghi over-delivers in ECB's stilumlus measures, then another round of euro bashing should follow, however, if no major surprise is announced, then euro may jump on active broad-based short covering.
Until then, price may swing after a slew of services PMIs from Italy, France, Germany and EZ are released during European morning.
Offers are noted at 1.0620/30 and more above with stops reported at 1.0650 and more stops are building above 1.0690/00. Bids are touted at 1.0580-70 and more below.
As mentioned in recent updates, there is market chatter of solid bids by macro fund from 1.0550 all the way to 1.0500 and huge option barrier is reported at 1.0500.
So looks like buying euro on dips ahead of Fri's U.S. payrolls is recommended.
AceTraderFx Dec 3: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 03 Dec 2015 02:32 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0597
Despite euro's intra-day selloff in New York session on upbeat U.S. data and then marginal break of Monday's 1.0558 low to a fresh 7-1/2 month trough of 1.0550 following hawkish comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Subsequent swift rebound on short covering to 1.0627 suggests a temporary bottom has possibly been made and choppy consolidation is expected ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting.
Above res at 1.0637/42 would bring stronger retracement of recent downtrend to 1.0689 whilst below 1.0550 yields weakness towards next daily chart sup at 1.0521 before prospect of a much-needed correction
AceTraderFx Dec 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Dec 2015 06:15GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading after yesterday's sharp fall to a 7-month trough of 1.4896. Although traders citing initial wave of selling emerged n knocked the pound from 1.5080 to 1.5033 after downbeat UK construction PMI, intra-day decline gathered momentum shortly after New York open on active broad-based selling in sterling vs eur and yen, then release of robust U.S. ADP private employment data, cable eventually tumbled to 1.4896 after Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish comments before rebounding to 1.4957 in tandem with euro on short-covering.
Looks like cable would find temp. respite, at least in early European trading, however, pay attention to release of key U.K. services PMI at 09:30GMT, street forecast for November reading to come in at 55.0 vs previous figure of 54.9, if actual is weaker then forecast, expect another rebound of sterling bashing but if the reading beats estimate, allow for a modest rebound before sellers emerge.
For now, some bids are noted at 1.4920-00 with light stops below 1.4890.
Offers are reported at 1.4955/65 and more above with stops touted above 1.5000.
AceTraderFx Dec 4: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2015 02:27GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Although dlr pared o/n steep losses at Tokyo open as Japanese importers bought the greenback, offers at 122.85 checked intra-day bounce, suggesting sideways trading above yesterday's New York low at 122.30 would continue.
Having said that, intra-day broad-based decline in Asian stocks with the Nikkei index falling the most in 1 month in early trading suggests selling the dollar for yen is the way to go, at least ahead of release of the key U.S. jobs report later in the day.
Looking ahead, as market has already priced in a modest hike in the Fed rate at the next FOMC meeting, we reckon not even a robust U.S. payrolls report will be able to move dlr above its November's 12-week high of 123.77.
Initial offers are noted at 122.85 and more at 123.00/10. Some bids are reported at 122.30-20 are with fairly large stops touted below there.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia retail sales, Japan consumer confidence, Germany industrial orders, Swiss CPI, Canada labour productivity, participation rate, unemployment rate, employment change, trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, average earning, international trade, and unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Dec 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2015 03:15GMT
GBP/USD- ..... Cable finally retreated in Asian trading after yesterday's rally from European morning low of 1.4902 to a 1-week high of 1.5160 near New York close as intra-day 4.35% surge in euro vs the usd triggered broad-based usd's weakness in hectic NY session.
Cable's intra-day pullback from 1.5160 suggests range trading below said temporary top would be seen ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data at 13:00GMT and as street forecast is looking for a decent 200k increase in jobs growth following previous surprise 271k gain, active buying is cable is therefore not expected and position players may look to buy cable on dips if the jobs number is strong.
No U.K. data is due out today, so the pound is expected to follow intra-day swings in eur/usd.
Offers are reported at 1.5155/65 n more above with stops building above 1.5200.
Some bids are noted at 1.5100-80 area with stops below 1.5050.
AceTraderFx Dec 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2015 03:25GMT
EUR/USD- ...... Euro bears are licking their wounds n even the most die-hard euro bears will be eating humble pies instead of Christmas pudding after yesterday's spectacular surge in the euro from a fresh 7-1/2 month bottom of 1.0523 to as high as 1.0981.
Yesterday's 4.34% gain was the biggest single-day rise seen in 6-1/2 years n technically speaking, euro's rally on Thursday marked a 'key reversal' day, so more gains are expected for the rest of this month as early CFTC report showed large speculators built up large short euro positions the most since May, this explains why the single currency was able to rise so much in New York session.
Euro's intra-day pullback to 1.0899 suggests a minor top has been made at 1.0981 and price may probably trade below there as traders are keeping their powder dry until release of key U.S. jobs data.
Before that, we have German Oct industrial orders at 07:00GMT, unless actual reading is much higher than forecast of 1.2% (versus prev.reading of -1.7%), euro bears may hope for an upbeat U.S. jobs report to knock the euro down and then cover their uncovered shorts (pun intended).
Offers (profit taking) are noted at 1.0980-1.1000 are with stops touted above 1.1000.
Some bids are noted at 1.0900-1.0890 and more below, suggesting buying euro on dips ahead of U.S. payrolls report is still favoured.
Report on Fed Chair Yellen's comments which suggest a rate hike at next FOMC's meeting is a done deal. Reuters reported Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, speaking the day before a key employment report, said on Thursday the U.S. economy needs to add fewer than 100,000 jobs a month to cover new entrants to the workforce, setting an implicit floor for the jobs growth policymakers want to see.
Yellen in her testimony was generally upbeat, spelling out how the economy has largely met the criteria the Fed has set for its first rate hike. Unemployment is low, growth continues at a modest pace, and Yellen said she is confident inflation will return to the Fed's target over time.
Though weak global growth remains a drag, she said the United States is far more dependent on domestic consumption and investment which, at least so far, is strong enough to produce growth that is slightly above trend.
The Fed's first rate hike, expected to be 25 basis points, will start what is expected to be a slow cycle of policy tightening that may see rates remain below normal for years to come.
Yellen noted that one reason not to delay a rate hike too much longer is to avoid the need for faster increases that could be more disruptive to the economy than the gradual rate path policymakers prefer.
The Fed's job is already challenging, given the moves by other major central banks to continue easing financial conditions. Such a divergence could pose a drag on U.S. growth by pressing up the value of the dollar beyond its already high level.
Yellen thought markets have largely priced in the separation between financial conditions among the world's large economies.
AceTraderFx Dec 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 04 Dec 2015 03:09 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0909
Euro's spectacular 3.45% rally from yesterday's fresh 7-1/2 month bottom of 1.0523 to as high as 1.0981 near New York close confirms recent downtrend has indeed formed a low there and 'choppy' trading is seen ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report later today.
As long as 1.0848/53 holds, outlook remains supportive for further gain towards next daily chart objective at 1.1073.
A daily close below said sup area would suggest 1st leg of correction is over, then risk of a stronger retracement towards 1.0752 50% r) can't be ruled out before prospect of another rise next week.
AceTraderFx Dec 7: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
07 Dec 2015 01:19GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Despite Friday's swift retreat from 123.38 to 122.72 in volatile trading post the release of U.S. jobs report, the greenback found support and rebounded to 123.29 in New York afternoon before easing.
Renewed buying in New Zealand today has pushed price higher n the pair continues to trade with a firm undertone in Tokyo morning.
Since there is no major eco. data due today, price is likely to carry on its trading patter post the release of Friday's jobs data.
Bids are now seen at 122.90/00 and more below at 122.70/80 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 123.40/50, suggesting choppy trading would be seen.
Data to be released:
Japan coincident indicator, leading indicator, Germany industrial output, euro zone's Sentix index and U.S. employment trend on Monday.
New Zealand mfg sales, Japan current account, economy watchers poll, GDP, U.K. retail sales, industrial output, mfg output, Australia business conditions, business confidence, China exports, imports, trade balance, France budget balance, exports, imports, trade balance, euro zone's GDP, U.S. business optimism, Redbook, Canada house starts and building permits on Tuesday.
Japan machinery order, Australia consumer confidence index, housing finance, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and New Zealand interest rate on Wednesday.
New Zealand retail sales, Japan survey index, corporate good price, Australia employment, unemployment rate, France non-farm payroll, CPI, industrial output, inflation ex-tobacco, Swiss interest rate, U.K. housing survey, trade balance, BoE monetary policy decision, U.S. initial jobless claims, export prices, import prices, Federal budget, Canada capacity utilization and new housing price index on Thursday.
New Zealand mfg PMI, China, urban investment, industrial output, retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, Italy, industrial output, U.S. retail sales, PPI, University of Michigan sentiment preliminary and business inventories on Friday.
AceTraderFx Dec 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Dec 2015 02:22GMT
GBP/USD- ....... Despite falling to 1.5082 in New York afternoon on Friday, the British pound pared its losses and rebounded to 1.5117 in late New York afternoon.
Price met renewed selling ahead of Asian open and retreated in tandem with euro to 1.5098 at Asian open and continues to remain under pressure.
Since there is no major eco. data due today, price is likely to track euro's intra-day movements closely.
Having said that, one should keep a keen eye on eur/gbp cross.
Bids are now lowered to 1.5070/80 and more below at 1.5050/60 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5130/40, suggesting st traders should look to sell on minor recovery but position trader should buy on dips for a resumption of recent uptrend.
AceTraderFx Dec 7: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 07 Dec 2015 08:22 GMT
USD/JPY - 123.35
Despite the greenback's strong retreat from 123.68 (Wed) to 122.30 last Thursday, subsequent rebound on the release of upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests consolidation with upside bias remains and above 123.68 would yield a re-test of November's fresh 12-year peak at 123.77, break would extend towards 124.00/10 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 122.64 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 122.30.