A-B-C-D Trade - page 297
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GBP/USD 1-Hour with indicator PSQ9 using Mars and Moon at 45-degree intervals.
We show 3 weeks, and the focus is on the 1st week's Moon 180-degree, which is highlighted by aqua blue trendline.
The diagonal Moon levels change with each new week. We kept the trendline (TL) across all 3 weeks for resistance. The 2nd week had a hit to this resistance TL on Mar 27th, and proceeded to make a 161.8 extension to the downside.
The end of that week also saw another approach rejected. The horizontal Mars 90-degree also acted as resistance there, and price declined into the T3 and next Mars level down (Mars 45-degree).
This week Moon 135-degree is in the same place as the TL, and it again rejected an approach today during 08:00.
Entry SELL = 1.6053 about 30-minutes after GBP data, at open of 09:00.
TP = 1.6002 (at the next Moon level down, the Moon 90-degree) + cushion/spread = 1.6007.
S/L options include 200% fib 1.6072 + cushion = 1.6077.
This was derived from fib plot using April 1st high 1,6025 and Apr 2nd low 1.5978.
R/R = 46/19 and ratio about 2.4:1
Here is AUD/USD 1-Hour with PSQ9 Moon and Mars at 45-degree intervals.
We extended (yellow) the Moon 90 and 0-degree lines from 2 weeks ago, and they line up with this week's 45 and 315-degree lines.
Blue horizontal fib plot uses last week's High = 1.05566 Low = 1.03551
Price retraced 23.6% before dipping to the 127.2 extension on Mar 29th 14:00.
Data events today at 04:30 (AUD Interest Rate Decision ), 09:00 (EURO) and 14:00 (USD).
Although interest rate was unchanged, we can see a large whipsaw 04:00 candle. It made a 2nd hit to the resistance at the Moon 45-degree, which is the yellow trendline as well.
After the 09:00 data, which can indirectly affect this pair through cross-correlation, we must wait for a possible window of opportunity prior to the next data event at 14:00.
One opportunity came at the Low of fib plot, which was touched during the 11:00 period. This level was key support area last week.
A bounce trade TP assessment is measured with a fib plot from the high 10:00 period of 1.04641 and the 11:00 low of 1.03520. Add cushion of 5 pips, entry = 1.03570.
Since the Horizontal Mars 315-degree (1.03760) is near the 23.6% (1.03785), we can target that as our TP1, while keeping an eye on the time.
This price level was hit during the 13:00 candle period. The 14:00 period was a whipsaw candle that had a drop back down to the low.
S/L just below Mar 30th 20:00 low 1.03464 + cushion = 1.03424.
R/R about 18/10 and ratio 1.8:1
The hawkish 18:00 FED Minutes resulted in USD strength. This is the week with a lot of data, including BOE and ECB rate decision/verbiage, and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls with Unemployment rate on Friday.
Have to be patient and pick your spots. Attached is 4-hour USD/CAD. Pair attempting to breakout from .99270 resistance.
The MurreyMath1.0 (MML) has previous S/R at the 6/8th MML .99487. That would be a SELL bounce trade opportunity, provided we dance around any data.
USD/CAD....use the 15-min MML for better intra-day S/R. Price just bounced off the 15-min 3/8th MML of .9933
Today's numerous data releases made it difficult to squeeze in a trade. The 1st chart shows HAMA_T3 candles providing support on the way up.
No bounce at the 4/8th MML of .9948, as discussed. Instead shorts entered at 10:00 period peak of .9944, and gained a modest 11 pips. Speculation on data for USD strength simply too strong.
Next level of congestion and bounce down was at the 5/8th MML. However, data events could have affected pair in opposite directions.
The 2nd chart is a 5-min with session colors and MML. Fib plot:
Low = .9912 High = .9941
161.8% and 200% extensions to the upside were hit, with bounces. Trendline at dips provide support. Set-up for potential profit taking (SELL) end European or U.S session(s).
This version of the SQ9 indicator measures larger increments. The attached daily chart is an update on our plot that used StartPrice = 1.26229 (Jan 13, 2012 low), and direction = up.
Fib plot: High = 2-24 1.34853 Low = 3-15 1.30027
We have resistance cluster at the 135-degree level of 1.33892 that is about same as the 78.6% retrace fib.
1st hit occurred on Mar 27th, and revisit on Mar 30th.
When we look closer at the RSI (4-Period), we can see the cluster of candles on the 2nd hit to resistance have a much lower number than the 1st hit.
Yesterday (Apr 4th) saw price decline to the 90-degree level 1.31313, which is near the 23.6% fib. RSI(4) at end of day closed at a 14 reading denoting oversold.
Reward = 250 pips
The S/L should not exceed half-way between the 135-degree and 158-degree levels. That equates to 65 pips + cushion = 70 pips risk.
R/R ratio = 3.5:1
Trailing your stop can of course result in a lesser R/R.
The NFP figure came in surprising lower than forecast, generating 120K jobs versus anticipated 200K. March Unemployment inched up to 8.2% from 8.3% (8.3% was also forecast).
EUR/USD spiked up about 60 pips, but muted somewhat by lower volume due to the Good Friday holiday.
Attached is 1-Hour USD/CAD, which saw USD strength on data. We used the same SQ9(Price) 5760* indicator as previously posted
StartPrice - the March 2009 high of 1.30630. Direction down.
Fib plot: Low = Apr 3rd .98873 High = Apr 4th .99726
Price made a 127.2% extension to the upside on Apr 5th early European. Thereafter, positive CAD Unemployment data drove price back down.
Today's spike up faced resistance at the High of fib plot, probing to the 3588-degree.
We drew pink lines at 3 levels that can be good S&R entry scenarios next week.
1) The 2565-degree of 1.00087. This is also just above the 138.2% extension to the upside.
This would be a SELL scenario. S/L just above the next SQ9 level 2543-degree and 1.00337. A tighter S/L option is just above the Mar 29th 14:00 high of 1.00178.
TP at the High of fib plot = .99726. Add cushion on both ends, and make sure R/R is adequately above 1:1.
2) The 2655-degree level of .99089, which was location of recent Apr 5th pivot.
This is a Buy scenario. S/L just below next SQ9 level of 2678-degree .998840. TP 2610-degree .99587. This is a gross R/R of 2:1. But adding cushion, and/or trail stop will reduce R/R.
3) The 2700-degree of .98592, which is between the 127.2 and 138.2% extension to the downside.
This is a BUY scenario. Once again, S/L just below the next SQ9 level down, which is the 2723-degree .98344.
TP1 = Low of fib plot and same as 2678-degree .98840.
TP2 = 2655-degree .99089.
* This version of the SQ9(Price) was adjusted to accommodate many more levels. This allows us to use a more historic significant high/low as StartPrice, and use the S&R levels for the lower time-frame charts, such as the 1-hour.
Cheers
USD/CAD made a hit to the 127.2 extension fib (.99958) to the upside during today's 12:00 period, and declined back to the High of the fib plot. That bounce represented about 23 gross pips.
This resistance level is near the round parity price of 1.0000 and a psychological barrier.
Our target to upside was just above that, at the SQ9 2565-degree price of 1.00087, and can still be a play.
***
Attached is a 1-Hour EUR/USD chart with PSQ9 Mars at 45-degree intervals. Fib plot uses Apr 3rd to 4th swing: High = 1.33664 Low = 1/31057.
After a small 23.6% pullback on Apr 5th, pair extended down to the 127.2 of 1.30348.
Consolidation on Good Friday. Open of new week saw a revisit to the 127.2, and the opportunity for a BUY bounce trade. Tight S/L just below the Mars 0-degree 1.30210, made risk = 17 pips with cushion.
TP1 at Mars 45-degree 1.30780 R/R = 35/15 and ratio of 2:1 (hit 07:00)
TP2 at Low of fib plot 1.31057 R/R = 65/15 and ratio of 4.3:1
EUR/USD with a strong push to the upside, hit TP2.
Next resistance, and a short opportunity, is at the Mars 90-degree price level of 1.31350. This is also the 78.6% retrace fib based on plot:
High = Apr 5th 1.31632 Low = Apr 9th 1.031315
S/L options include tight just above this resistance, let's call it risk = 12 pips.
TP targets include back down to the 1.3100 round number level, and previous TP on BUY 1.31057, + cushion = 1.3109.
R/R = 22/12
The short off 1.3135 area was successful as our assessment was within 3 pips at top and bottom of trade distance traveled 17:00-21:00 GMT.
Thereafter, pair made a higher high of 1.3143, but registered lower on the RSI(4-Period), forming BAJA bearish divergence.
We inserted the indicator camarilladt, which has its H3 SHORT level at the same as our resistance of 1.3135. However, that is for today, April 10th, and based on the previous day's price action.
This means another short opportunity was for today. The attached chart shows R1 level 1.4150, which can be used as the S/L.
Alternatively, entry can be effected when price dropped back below 1.3135. This scenario can use the high of 1.4143 as the S/L + cushion.
Price declined into previous congestion area near the Mars 45-degree of 1.3080, which was a TP option.
R/R = 50/15
***
The yellow fib plot used Low = 1.3031 High = 1.3143