A-B-C-D Trade - page 289
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Here's the continuance of our 1-hour plot with SDC, HAS candles, and MML.
We can see price dip breifly below the SDC lower channel (green) during the 08:00 period when it was revealed that Greece was working on a bridge loan.
It hugged that level until the 15:00 U.S. data. This was the time to exit the position of move S/L to break-even.
The positive U.S data outcome pushed price down. When we look to the left, we can see the previous Feb 10th low of $1703, which was at the 2/8th MML.
That was the next support level, for a BUY bounce opportunity. This move has since made it to $1721 as we speak.
A 15:30 entry, after waiting 30-minutes for things to subside from data, was at BUY price of $1706 + spread/cushion = $1707. That is a very workable price, as S/L was $1701 or thereabouts.
R/R thus far $14.00/$6.00 and ratio of 2.3:1
Targeting the 4/8th MML price of $1718 was $11.00/$6.00 and 1.8:1
edit-add: the 30-min chart view, with candlewicks turned off. We can see the SDC change, now with its lower channel at 1708. The HAS candles bounced right off of that.
Market apparently reacting to Bernanke dovish speech on "frustrating slow recovery" and keeping low interest rates. Thanks to fxstreets, and bloomberg t.v.
Attached is EUR/USD split-screen. On left is 15-min with session colors, MML, and fib plot utilizing European session low/high. Price broke out after European close, and now at 6/8th MML 1.3123 and 161.8 extension.
Chart on right is 1-hour with PSQ9, and fib plot using Feb 15th high/low (yellow). Price bottomed at the 138.2 extension, and intersection of Mars 315 and Moon 225-degree.
Price now at 50% fib and near Mars 45 Moon 315 intersection.
EUR/USD
Keeping eyes on volume, we see the 1-hour have 2 red (decline volume) bars for the 15:00 and 16:00 periods.
This means the surge is unsustainable, at least for the short-term. At the very least, effective as early as the 17:00 period, a retrace is a natural course.
The amount of retrace is undetermined, and we need to follow the information our tools are trying to tell us. The 100% (high of fib plot on 15-min) is a TP target.
The declining volume comes during transition from European session to 2nd half of U.S.
Obviously, the exuberance of the market psychology plays a role here. We are focusing on that deflating.
Gold generally trades in the same direction as EUR/USD.
This 30-min has session colors, MML, and wider fib plot using yesterday's high and today's low.
Price made a Doji at the 61.8% fib on the 17:00 candle, closing at 1723 (Entry). The decline has started and at 1720 thus far. Plot retrace fibs and/or use above fib plot for TP options.
S/L of course just above 1724 Doji candle high. The 4/8th MML of 1718 (+ spread/cushion)would be a conservative TP.
Reports of Greek bond swaps circulated starting around 17:00 hour. This resulted in small pop up in Euro pairs, and may gain steam at some point.
Shorts should consider this.
Meanwhile Gold regained upward momentum, after a small retrace to 1720.
Positive 07:00 EU CPI. German President resigns. Greek debt swap by ECB confirmed.
Choppy ascent by EUR/USD make breakout of Asian High difficult iusing tight SL.
We have 2 charts of EUR/USD attached.
Chart 1 is a 15-min with indicator camarilladt. GMT offest both at 0 for chart that are based on that setting (GMT = 0). Indicator takes previous day's high/low and projects levels for BUY, SELL, and breakouts.
The H3 SHORT level is 1.31769 (Entry for SELL)
R1 is 1.31983 (S/L or Entry for SELL)
We also have indicator Murreymath1.0 (MML), for additional guidance on S&R.
Entry = 8/8th MML 1.31836 is close to H3
TP = 4/8th MML 1.31531
The Reward/Risk Ratio depends on which entry was used.
Chart 2 is a split-screen comparing the camarilladt and another version Carmarilla_AlertFibs. Both indicators are attached herewith.
This version with alert has the same H3 price level, but sometimes different fib resistance levels. The pivot at 1.3086 were the same on both, as was the L3.
***
Whichever version you feel comfortable using is a matter of personal choice. Our main point is to use other confirmation tools. The MML is a good one. And as usual, measure the R/R prior to commitment.
Cheers
Here is AUD/USD 1-Hour with camarilladt, MML, HAS, Keltner Channel (KC).
It gets a little cluttered, but if you have been following, it should be manageable.
We have the H3 SHORT level at 1.07841.
R1 at 1.07994 (entry or S/L)
6/8th MML = 1.08032 (entry or S/L)
Entry at H3 or R1, or 6/8th MML.
HAS candles bounced off mid-channel of KC, and the red turned to 2 blue candles. This pair proceeded to decline after pullback, and hit the TP options:
Pivot = 1.07220
3/8th MML = 1.07117
Lower Channel of KC at the L3 1.07138
etc.
Here is a 30-min chart on USD/CAD. The L3 LONG level .9941 was hit precisely twice.
The 12:00 candle was the first hit, and produced a 15-pip bounce up.
After waiting for 13:30 U.S. data, price bounce up off this L3 level and rose to the area of the 2/8th MML .9979, for a 38-pip gain.
S/L options include just below:
2/8th .9934
S1 .9930
A R/R of about 30/15 and ratio 2:1 was realistic.
Here is 30-min view of Gold with camarilladt, and supporting tools. You can save whatever works for you as a template.
We labeled the 13:30 GMT U.S. data, and can see market repsect the H# SHORT level of 1733.26.
S/L just above:
8/8th MML = 1734.38
R1 = 1735.27
Therefore the opportunity had a tight S/L. However, if we waited for things to subside a little after 13:30 data, the 14:00 GMT open price was 1732.50, which was still very attractive.
If we rode the HAS down, a large again to the 4/8th MML of 1718.75 was hit during the 16:00 candle period.
This aggressive scenario had a R/R of about 12.00/4.00 and ratio of 3:1.