A-B-C-D Trade - page 296
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On the 1-hour, we can see the upswing from the Mar 22nd low (1.03353) to Mar 25th high (1.04906).
The pullback was 38.2% (1.04313) and near the 2/8th MML. Additional tools have the CCI Divergence indicator, and the Fractals indicator confirm pivot at that level.
The GAB turned red during this pullback, while the HAMA_T3 candles remained green for denoting uptrend.
TP1 at 127.2% extension fib + cushion = 1.05290
Entry BUY at pullback + spread = 1.04340
S/L at 50% fib + cushion = 1.04090
Reward/Risk = 95/25
R/R Ratio = 3.8:1
***
If using the 4-Hour HAMA_T3 for guidance, the support from T3 candles held at pullback.
Use of 1-hour T3 candles for trailing S/L, after entry would be tighter.
Chart 2 contains PSQ9 with same fib plot going up. The pullback was right at the Mars 0-degree. The TP was at the 127.2 fib extension, and same as the Mars 90-degree.
****
The next move was an extension to the downside that just hit the 161.8 during the 15:00 period. High = Mar 27th 11:00 and Low = Mar 28th 03:00
The pullback was 23.6%, and touched the T3.
The attached are GOLD charts at GMT +2, with GAB and HAMA_T3 smoothing indicators. We also have the Ichimoku, and SQ9(Price).
The SQ9(Price) 5760 version had been adjusted to provide more lines for larger moves. The start price in this example is the Feb 29th high of $1789.50. The yellow lines are at 45-degree intervals and the gray lines at 22.5-degree intervals.
The first chart is a 4-hour, that can be used as guidance, while the 2nd is more of a trigger chart.
The 4-hour shows the plunge from the High. Price subsequently stayed below the Ichimoku clouds to denote down trend. The 38.2% pullback on Mar 12th was also contained by the Ichimoku cloud.
Price proceeded to make a 127.2% extension (not shown), to $1627 and just above the 360-degree level.
The 2nd chart is a 1-hour, and plots fib from that Low to the 1668.30 high established Mar 26th.
A pullback probed below the 23.6% fib, before extending to the 161.8% fib of $1696 on Mar 27th. This peak is also the 203-degree level. Lurking bounce traders often wait at the 161.8.
As price declined through the Ichimoku, another bounce point was the previous pullback level of $1654.80, which is also the 293-degree. Tight S/L just below the blue 38.2% fib $1652.
The Mar 28th 20:00 bounce up captured a gross of about $10.00, to the 270-degree.
Net R/R = $9/$3 and about 3:1 ratio.
This was a counter-trend trade, and we always point out that it should be reserved for experienced traders. That means you need to practice.
Re-entry opportunity into the downtrend was at the 270-degree during 03:00, and just about at the bottom of the 03:00 T3 candle.
This is a 15-min chart with session colors, MurreyMath1.0 (MML), GAB, and HAMA_T3.
Fib plot: High = 3-28 18:00 .99992 Low = 3-29 06:15 .99720
Price extended upwards to the 127.2 on Mar 29 09:45, and to the 161.8 at 14:30.
When the upper extensions are accurate with price action, we have confidence that the lower extensions will be too.
Price declined back into the fib plot's high/low range. We look for a pullback into the HAMA_T3. This happened during the Mar 29th 17:45 period, as marked by 1st arrow. This level is also the 7/8th MML, and the 78.6% fib area.
The entry for a SELL position would fill at about .99900. The Low of fib plot .99721 can be TP1.
The various fib extensions to the downside would be further TP levels.
Price consolidated after close of New York (tan color box), and touched the T3 several times. The T3 resistance held, and price slipped lower to the 178,6% extension price level of .99509 during the 01:45 period this morning.
Same chart last posted on EUR/USD, on 30-min time-frame. Price just got rejected near recent HIGH(1) level.
The 6/8th MML of 1.33667, the 127.2% fib of 1.33637 and 138.2 of 1.33711 was the resistance zone. The Mars 270-degree also there.
Decline hit the top of T3 candle and 5/8th MML 1.33362 just now.
S/L just above HIGH(2) price of 1.33726 + cushion = 1.33766 for risk of 15 pips.
TP = 25 pips
R/R = 1.7:1
***
We just stated that if one side of the fib extensions was accurate, it should make the other side accurate as well.
The previous post on the 2 fib plot options had the pivot low right at fibs. Therefore, it is likely the extensions to the upside would be accurate. And it was, to the 127.2.
Here's another short, this time on GBP/USD, as illustrated on the attached 30-min with Mars 45-interval and HAMA_T3.
Nice uptrend ridden, with guidance from the T3. Yesterday (Mar 30th) price touched the Mars 90-degree level of 1.60310 during the 06:30 period.
The yellow fibs used a plot: Low = 1.58591 High = 1.59571. There was hardly a pause at the High, prior to the extension to the 90-degree. This is also the 178.6%.
The fib plot was fitted to result in a fib at that peak. The other option for High was the 1.59857, which resulted in the peak as the 138.2% extension.
This was a set-up for the revisit of that peak. That occurred during today's 11:30 candle. Since there was upcoming U.S. data at 12:30, the trade would have to exit by then.
Tight stop-loss would need to make R/R palatable. 10-12 pips was ideal.
Price bounced off our target resistance and declined to the top of the 12:00 T3 candle, at 1.60060.
Net R/R about 20/12 and ratio of 1.7:1.
****
Subsequently, the 12:30 data reaction was a small whipsaw that the S/L would have contained. Data was positive for USD and price declined to the next Mars level down, the Mars 45-degree level of 1.59680.
Experienced bounce traders lurked there for quick BUY scalps prior to end-week.
Here's a 30-min chart on GBP/USD with Ichimoku, PSQ9, and the 2 smoothing indicators GAB HAMA_T3.
The decline on Feb 21st broke through the Ichimoku cloud and the T3 turn color to agree with downtrend. The dotted yellow line is previous S&R at the 1.58186 level.
Entry options, aside from that initial point include at the 50% pullback into the Ichimoku cloud. That was also near the yellow resistance area.
Entry can also be effected at the break of Point B, which is aided by T3 candles turning back to downtrend color.
TP as measured by the ABC tool (fib expansion tool) are at the major FE levels of FE 127.2, FE 138.2, and FE 161.8. The Horizontal Mars level at the 138.2 was also good.
The bottom pivot at the 161.8 also had BAJA bullish divergence, as additional guide for possible change of trend and therefore exit on the SELL.
The version used is the SQ9 22.5 Factor 56. StartPrice = .80646 (May 25, 2010).
After a massive move to the upside, price peaked in Nov 5, 2010, and chopped around for a bit thereafter.
The 1st chart fib plot uses:
High = Nov 5, 2010 1.01819 and Low = Nov 16th .97234.
The pullback was 50% on Nov 22nd, with the HAMA_T3 resistance holding.
SELL entry options include:
Entry1 = next candle open after price dropped below the T3 Nov 12th (.98697),
Entry2 = pullback (.99531),
Entry3 = at break of the Low (.97234).
GAB remained red and T3 remained in downtrend color (pink on our chart). Price made a 127.2% extension (.95483) on Dec 1st, which was also at the SQ9 315-degree level.
With 10-pip cushion, and TP at 138.2% Extension:
R/R @ Entry1 = 311/148 and ratio 2:1
R/R @ Entry2 = 395/35 and ratio 11.2:1 (S/L just above SQ9 405-degree)
R/R @ Entry3 = 365/200 and ratio 1.8:1
R/R @ Entry2 and TP at Low = 219/65 ratio 3.4:1
***
We'll let you calculate the extension to the upside that occurred right after this example on chart 1.
***
Chart 2 shows the most recent down turn from the Feb 29th peak, that had a 50% pullback contained by the T3 on Mar 19th. The SQ9's 540-degree was just above the pullback, and once again provided an opportunity for a tight stop-loss.
Price made a 127.2% extension on Mar 29th, which was also near the SQ9 472.5-degree level.
Entry at 50% pullback 1.06466
S/L at 540-degree 1.6580
TP at 127.2% fib extension 1.03244
R/R = 312/21 and ratio about 15:1
TP at Low 1.04221 had R/R 214/21 and ratio about 10:1
Here is a simple set-up and trade that occurred on USD/CAD 1-Hour. We have the automatic S&R indicator MurreyMath1.0 (MML).
Zooming out, we can see the bigger picture. After a large decline from the Mar 29th peak to the Mar 26th low, a 2nd touch of that low, the next day, was the start of the up trend.
Price peaked on Mar 29th and started to retrace. The fib retracement plot would therefore be:
Low = Mar 27th 09:00 .98995
High = Mar 29th 14:00 1.00178
We know that the major retrace levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. You will need to input those ratios into the fib retracement tool.
There were 2 consolidation levels on the way up to that Mar 29th peak. They were at the 38.2% and 50% levels of our plot.
Although the 38.2% was a good choice for a BUY, the 61.8% was better. Both could have been tried. The 38.2% was a loss trade.
The 4/8th MML level is .99487, and just above the 61.8% fib. This is additional support for the BUY trade scenario.
When you look closer at the MML indicator's text, you will see that the 4/8th is considered major S&R. This because it the the 50% level of the grid generated by the MurreyMath1.0 indicator.
Entry BUY = Mar 30th 02:00 open price .99563, which was next candle after pivot. The RSI(4-Period) also identified BAJA Divergence after the 01:00 candle closed.
TP assessment: Plot another fib retracement, using:
High = Mar 29th 14:00 1.00178
Low = Mar 30th 01:00 .99514
Which major retracement level matches up with a MML level?
The 38.2 and 61.8 are close to the 6/8th and 7/8th MML.
We had mentioned that the 6/8th had consolidation on the up trend. This area which has the 38.2% fib would be the TP for the more conservative trader.
The S/L would be placed below the 1st plot's 61.8% fib 0f .99447. This was also a previous dip/pivot touched on Mar28th 14:00.
Entry = .99563 + spread = .99593
S/L = .99447
TP1 = .99768
R/R 17/15 pips and ratio about 1:1
TP2 = .99924
R/R 33/15 and ratio about 2:1
Note that price dipped back to the low between TP1 and TP2. If trader moved S/L after hit to the 38.2% fib, it would have triggered.
Price gapped up at open of week Sunday. Attached 15-min chart utilizes MurreyMath1.0, and is a simple example of a bounce trade off of a revisit to a recent high or low.
In this case, the Sunday Apr 1st 22:45 candle period hit 1.3375, which was the Mar 30th 06:45 high.
Entry SELL = 5 pips below that significant high = 1.3370
Stop-loss just above +1/8th MML of 1.3382 + cushion = 1.3387
TP just above 6/8th MML of 1.3336 + spread/cushion = 1.3341.
Net R/R = 29/17 and ratio 1.7:1
A tighter S/L at 5 pips above 1.3375 = risk of 10 pips and R/R ratio 2.9:1
Attached is a split-screen of 30-min EUR/USD, with session colors on left and MML or right.
Price made another test of high during early European. Speculation on U.S. data placed pressure on pair ahead of 14:00.
Another bounce (BUY) point at the 4/8th could not withstand the strength to the SELL side.
The wider fib plot from our Mar 28th plot can be seen on the 2nd chart. The 14:30 period low of 1.32760 was revisited today during the 13:00 period and a quick bounce up can be traded just ahead of data.
This level is also the 2/8th MML (1.32750). Measuring retrace fibs from 10:00 pivot high of 1.33610, produced:
23.6 = 1.32970 and 38.2 = 1.33090
R/R to the 23.6 was about 15/10
***
Daily chart with SQ9 22.5 Factor 56, and StartPrice 1.51431 (long-term significant high).
Allows us to see EUR/USD trapped in range between 292.5-degree 1.34044 and 315-degree 1.32750.
Our APF plot (chart 3) that was last pictured on Mar 27th, upon the first revisit of Upper_ML2 resistance. This was again touched at the peak Sunday and today.
***
This is another example of higher time-frame charts providing S&R, short-term charts acting as trigger.