Harmonic Analysis - page 246
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audnzd on monthly low
H4 Cypher
Hello friends, I would like your parere.Come would run the Stop Loss, in this beautiful CRAB BULL. After entering long extension perfectly 1,618 to the price of 1.5135, I took the SL of 40 pips. Immediately after the price has broken down and I gained about 100 pips. I behaved like a true beginner. I am very angry. Technically where you would have placed the SL?
Thank you.Carney refers to the Crab pattern as a "precise" pattern, however I could not find his description of how much tolerance to give, or what SL to tolerate.
I would just show some options, and please let me know your preferences/experience so we could learn together from the case. Take it as I am just thinking out loud here...
1. go with the crab specification with its internal confluences for the PRZ - as you did probably
In this case you went with it and lost it, which happens. Check:
Harmonic Patterns In The Currency Markets
or
HArmonic Crab Pattern
For additional calculations you could enter the paremeters of the crab AB and C into the pattern calculator excel sheet to make sure you do not forget any minimum requirements in the internal structure.
2. look left.. obviously you did that as well, and adjusted your stop to the previous low (even by adding an extra 20 pips risk was not enough)
3. if you take your potential taget of the pattern TP1 and recalculate it to the SL required to achive that, will be OK in many cases, but it will be now around the double, i.e. 80 pips.
Are you willing to take that much? It is either not guaranteed you will get it!
4. Look left/or go higher TF and draw supply/demand or support/resistance levels there to match the possible extent of the PRZ
obviously you have to consider the same things based on RR:
- if you know the next possible demand/support, would you enter where you did, knowing the new RR profile? If not do not enter, or enter in 2 portions.. one at the higher level, and one at the lower... wether SL is the same or you close your first entry and will rather reenter, will be a calculation.
5. search for other confluences, other supporting evidence for finalizing the entry and SL zones...
like additional 4 point or 5 point patterns, oscillators OS on MTF, divergence etc.. according to what you succeed with...
6. you might get to a LTF and stick to the screen manage entry closely, and when you are out with BE or small profit, work hard on reentering, since you know this case is a good pick after all. It will take a lot of energy, I do not think this is the best thing to do.
It seems to be definitely easy to say afer the fact, but these are the things I am considering..
And even if you go through all these
a. there are no guaratees that price will follow your plan
b. you still have to be very firm on how much risk you are willing to take, or skip the specifc business -BECAUSE THERE WILL ALWAYS BE A NEXT LEVEL also there will always be a next opportunity...
Please let me know your thoughts.
Tnx
audnzd on monthly low
H4 Cypher
Other potentials.
Hammer candle + harmonics
A bullish bat failed while a bullish hammer worked.
Bullish butterfly, ABCD, bullish hammer failed. The bullish hammer was weakly constructed.
Bullish hammer + ABCD.
A bullish bat failed while a bullish hammer worked.
Ryushin, some people call that working zone of the "hummer" a " demand zone" have a look at that concept of supply and demand, might improve even harmonic performance...
I tried to reproduce the time, I am bad at it, but I think your hummer is close to represent the demand zone at X of and below the failed bat...
I have not drawn the zones mannually correct as of which one is fresh or sed, just to show where those were expected.
For the reason of showing the past situation, I did not draw any of the present zones either...
Bullish butterfly, ABCD, bullish hammer failed. The bullish hammer was weakly constructed.
Probably the same as above... was a potential level from a demand zone perspective as well, but if you counted on it and failed, the demand zone was minimizing the risk, and shows the next levels just by itself...also does not mean will work for sure, need to analyze HTF situation D1, W1 for that.
and there will be waves up and down,m that is how bulls and bears are losing and winning in any situation, but on HTF I still have this picture on mind:
Maybe it is just me and not the market, one never knows.
USDCAD broke below HTF up TL and currently forming a bull bat.