How many of you are successful ? - page 5
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Maybe I am a little pessimistic because my EAs went down by 15% last week (they are still in profit, don't know for how long
Well, they're still in profit. You expect some losses .. it's all a matter of how big they are, whether you can laugh about them .. or whether they wipe you out.
Good luck .. and I'll see you on that island!
Well, they're still in profit. You expect some losses .. it's all a matter of how big they are, whether you can laugh about them .. or whether they wipe you out. Good luck .. and I'll see you on that island!
Well, we are talking not just about profit, we are talking about constant and sustainable profit. For example, look at Firebird_v65 EURUSD statements. You can find some periods (2006.07.03 - 2006.07.07 for example) where this EA is enormously profitable. But total result is negative. So I am thinking now - is this an end of short profit period, or just a bump on the road
Well, we are talking not just about profit, we are talking about constant and sustainable profit. For example, look at Firebird_v65 EURUSD statements. You can find some periods (2006.07.03 - 2006.07.07 for example) where this EA is enormously profitable. But total result is negative. So I am thinking now - is this an end of short profit period, or just a bump on the road
I've been forward testing Firebird, but wouldn't use it live. It seems to do fine, accumulating modest gains ... then WHAM! it takes a massive hit. On 2007.02.08 gbpusd 1.00 lot it lost 1480.00, then the next day it lost 520.00. It's still running, but it made a huge dent in the capital.
EAs in general
Newdigital is doing a massive and very useful work here with his forward testing. Thanks to that I noticed one thing - how many EAs, which are well finetuned, fixed and "approved", actually generate loss in long term. There are spikes in their performance, which are very visible in weekly statements - like, say, e-Friday EA - it did +25 pips last week, but total to date is -646p. So I take this as a message to all EAs lovers including me - be VERY careful. There is never too much forward testing, too much analysis and too much effort to understand. I started the whole EA thing with a hope that one day I will be able just to sit back and relax, and my only worry would be if my cocktails will come to me not too warm. Now I see this thing as a neverending improvement and testing project, where one can never sleep without fear that over night his EAs will wipe his account clean because of unexpected. This is probably the main reason why you cannot find in forums people who would be using EAs for years, have seven or more digits acocunts and could share some thoughts how this became possible; instead, we have bunch of fortune seekers, hoping to hit this sweet spot. Good luck to all of us, and lets share our views how to manage this thing towards bright future
At the risk of sounding dumb...
In the performance reports: I see several EA's listing their performance since testing began in the several hundred even thousand pip range...wouldn't this suggest that they are making money at least for the 6 months or a year newdigital has been testing them??
In the performance reports: I see several EA's listing their performance since testing began in the several hundred even thousand pip range...wouldn't this suggest that they are making money at least for the 6 months or a year newdigital has been testing them??
You may look at excel file in rar archive here
Some EAs are more risky, some of them less.
I think one of the reasons we are all looking for some majic EA to trade for us is because we lack the discipline to trade manually. At least thats how its been for myself and others i know. There is nothing more frustrating than having a system which you know will generate 6 out of 10 trades which are winners but you always give it back due to poor discipline or greed. The hardest part of trading is overcoming yourself, if you can remain cold and fearless you will come out ahead (assuming your method is sound). This is why i am here. I have an ea which is working great at the moment and am confident it will continue to do so, i think that for the most part people complicate trading with indicators which are mostly crap. My tip is to stick to the KISS theory in trading and dont be greedy anything which generates 5 - 10 % per week/month is awesome. The good thing about ea's is that you can keep it simple; the less you have to code the easier you can sleep. BTW im looking for a real good coder to program my manual system any out there??
PS. one more thing, just remember as soon as you give up you have lost
Ea's
I think everyone needs to foreward test and try lots of different parameters.
I know I would not run firebird the way it setup at the default, not on certain currencies and not on a number of time frames.
People seem to give up a little easy if the backtest doesn't pan out on these ea's. that is a mistake. Cybertrader, for example, has an awesome backtest (it can turn a $1000 into 1.5 million on the euro in less than 2 years on the 30 minute). Run it live and your dead! It is not a good ea unless you really play around, of which, I hope someday it works. That might be an ea someone could rename and sell on the internet showing the backtesting results!!! he he. Also, new digital does not have the time to foreward test all these ea's on all time frames. Alot of this is going to be trial and error and hopefully it can work out for some traders.
I'm too emotional to trade manually. I demo trade manually to test a system for a few days and then I find a lot of strengths and weaknesses in it. Once the bugs are out of the system and there aren't many "unknowns" left, then I turn it to code. An idea is *not* ready to become a program. I like the idea of writing code once in a while and then letting the system trade for me.
I do suggest you go with Phoenix 5.7.0 instead of the contest versions because there are many bugs in many features. Most of the bugs were uncovered by having 1000's people try out the code and we found a few dozen brokers and settings that didn't work. There are still bug fixes being written for 5.7, and the code will be maintained. It is not the way I like to write my code though.
I have not yet entered the Forex market. I have done about $10k worth of work in the past 9 months, and been paid on approximately $2500 of that total. So little to live on for 9 months doesn't leave much room for investment. I stopped writing code for other people, now I am only writing code for myself (and Phoenix). I have an EA going through rigorous optimization tests now. The goal is not to find "profitable" settings but to find settings that stay profitable. I like the EA because it trades fractals of support and resistance, and it can scale up to 3 trades per year or down to a few hundred trades per currency per month, profitably. The all important profit factor is hovering between 2-3 in testing now. (1.01 is profitable EA, 1.0 is break even, 0.99 is a loss.)
In regard to your post vs view count, don't sweat it. We have thousands of downloads (millions of dollars being made for people) and about 6 regular posters in the Phoenix community.
Hi guys. This is my story. It is very interesting to hear real life stories, we learn alot.
I started trading in 1999 trading stocks. I lost around 20.000 euro.
Then in 2001 I discovered Forex. I thought I would become a millionaire in a year. My capital was 20K. In one month I had 28K. I thought I was I genious. I was trading together with a friend using Elliot. In the next coming months my account dropped to 800 euro!
I told my friend that our little project had to stop and I started trading alone.
Since then I have learned so many things from this site and spending $$$ on books.
My background academically was good (MBA's. Master the whole deal) but they do not teach you about speculation. I have learned more here than my MBA.
Now I am doing ok. I am not trying to forecast the price anymore. I am trading risk. If the risk is not appropriate I do not trade. For example I am aiming at 1.5% average per day, with 1:1 R/R and 70% success rate. I am targeting 13-15 pips that's all. Use the compound formula in excell to see what I am talking about.
I am sorry but I can't believe people that claim to make 100-300 pips average. It means that they would be billionaires in a few years.
My humble advice is do not look for the perfect indicator or ea to make a killing. Believe me 10 pips a day average, with proper money management can turn into a very big fortune.
I am looking forward to hear your views.
Thanks
McDuck