Terminator v2.0 - page 39
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Some research info I did about diary movements and worst movements
Data was taken from 01/01/2005 to 10/31/2006
EURUSD
Average day range : 106
Worst Day Range : 248
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 596
USDCHF
Average day range : 122
Worst Day Range : 273
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 608
GPBUSD
Average day range : 150
Worst Day Range : 363
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 755
USDJPY
Average day range : 99
Worst Day Range : 351
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 636
AUDUSD
Average day range : 77
Worst Day Range : 168
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 390
USDCAD
Average day range : 102
Worst Day Range : 268
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 532
NZDUSD
Average day range : 76
Worst Day Range : 183
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 393
EURJPY
Average day range : 108
Worst Day Range : 368
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 742
EURGBP
Average day range : 36
Worst Day Range : 93
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 212
EURCHF
Average day range : 51
Worst Day Range : 159
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 276
EURCAD
Average day range : 128
Worst Day Range : 251
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 632
EURAUD
Average day range : 124
Worst Day Range : 304
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 655
GBPJPY
Average day range : 164
Worst Day Range : 581
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 1190
GBPCHF
Average day range : 145
Worst Day Range : 419
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 735
CHFJPY
Average day range : 73
Worst Day Range : 189
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 354
AUDJPY
Average day range : 73
Worst Day Range : 232
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 399
AUDCAD
Average day range : 85
Worst Day Range : 162
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 384
AUDNZD
Average day range : 83
Worst Day Range : 267
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 587
Its cleary that this EA cannot survive those "Worst Movements" and they are more frequently than we think.
Now what solution or disaster plan do you suggest ? except the ones I give in the firsts pages of this thread.After the recent swings in the US$ and with the current settings on Terminator 2.02, an idea has been going thru my mind.
O.K. we know Terminator is vulnerable to the large swings. It can be going fine for months on end, then all it takes is a sudden swing to wipe an account out as we'd seen with Tom's demo account.
What i believe can be a solution to this is the following:
We adjust the TP, Pips & Secure settings to higher volumes. For example a simple test i did with these settings all set to 100 had Terminator pull thru the swings and produced NO losses for the past couple of months on ALL currency pairs, even the volatile GBPUSD & GBPJPY (i have no access to longer periods, any advice where data that goes back a couple of years or more that i can get access to would be much appreciated..for free of course...hehe).
If Project1972 can produce a similar table as the one above of what the maximum movement was with the minimum pullback so we can adjust accordingly these parameters would be much appreciated. For example, above Project1972 has found the following for the EURUSD:
EURUSD
Average day range : 106
Worst Day Range : 248
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 596
So taking the above statistics what if we set the TP, Pips & SecureProfits settings all to 70. That way we have a 700pip swing Terminator can cope with where hopefully within that window there has been a 70pip pullback.
If we can find the optimum pip settings that take into account these large swings, i believe we'd be closer to having the perfect EA.
Another example with the above data is say for the AUDUSD:
AUDUSD
Average day range : 77
Worst Day Range : 168
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 390
Imagine if we used a TP, Pips & SecureProfit setting of 50 for this.
It should be able to handle the large sudden swing and pull thru OK.
These are the data I'd like Project1972 to analyze or if he can show me where i can go to find this type of data, it would be much appreciated. Once we find these optimum settings for each currency pairs, we'd have IMO the closest thing to perfect as a EA goes.
Now having said the above, it also means that the EA will have much less trades. But, what this also leaves us with is the fact that we don't go thru the Martingale progression as fast with these settings leaving more equity to trade with. So where in the past Tom was trading about 7-8 currencies on the 100k account, we would now be able to trade 11-13 currencies since our equity wont be used up as fast, thus, we end up making a bit under the same returns as previously, but, our EA is much more safer to trade with.
Of course all trading will have to be done in positive swap direction as once these trades are initiated they could last a while.
Regards,
hades291
After the recent swings in the US$ and with the current settings on Terminator 2.02, an idea has been going thru my mind.
O.K. we know Terminator is vulnerable to the large swings. It can be going fine for months on end, then all it takes is a sudden swing to wipe an account out as we'd seen with Tom's demo account.
What i believe can be a solution to this is the following:
We adjust the TP, Pips & Secure settings to higher volumes. For example a simple test i did with these settings all set to 100 had Terminator pull thru the swings and produced NO losses for the past couple of months on ALL currency pairs, even the volatile GBPUSD & GBPJPY (i have no access to longer periods, any advice where data that goes back a couple of years or more that i can get access to would be much appreciated..for free of course...hehe).
If Project1972 can produce a similar table as the one above of what the maximum movement was with the minimum pullback so we can adjust accordingly these parameters would be much appreciated. For example, above Project1972 has found the following for the EURUSD:
EURUSD
Average day range : 106
Worst Day Range : 248
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 596
So taking the above statistics what if we set the TP, Pips & SecureProfits settings all to 70. That way we have a 700pip swing Terminator can cope with where hopefully within that window there has been a 70pip pullback.
If we can find the optimum pip settings that take into account these large swings, i believe we'd be closer to having the perfect EA.
Another example with the above data is say for the AUDUSD:
AUDUSD
Average day range : 77
Worst Day Range : 168
Worst Movement without 30 pips pullback : 390
Imagine if we used a TP, Pips & SecureProfit setting of 50 for this.
It should be able to handle the large sudden swing and pull thru OK.
These are the data I'd like Project1972 to analyze or if he can show me where i can go to find this type of data, it would be much appreciated. Once we find these optimum settings for each currency pairs, we'd have IMO the closest thing to perfect as a EA goes.
Now having said the above, it also means that the EA will have much less trades. But, what this also leaves us with is the fact that we don't go thru the Martingale progression as fast with these settings leaving more equity to trade with. So where in the past Tom was trading about 7-8 currencies on the 100k account, we would now be able to trade 11-13 currencies since our equity wont be used up as fast, thus, we end up making a bit under the same returns as previously, but, our EA is much more safer to trade with.
Of course all trading will have to be done in positive swap direction as once these trades are initiated they could last a while.
Regards,
hades291My 2 cents worth....there's no static fix to this problem with these 10Point3 based EA's (or any EA that uses fixed TakeProfit/PipStep settings for that matter). The thing that really kills accounts are the fixed pipstep settings...make them to large and you sacrifice getting into good trades 75% of the time. Make them too small and you get murdered when the deadly towering fastbars appear or the trend shifts for a 250 pip drop without a retracement. You can't win. It's amazing how many posts you see from guys piddling around trying different settings, trying to find that sweet spot.
I've found what I believe is a good solution to this issue which I'm implementing in Goblin II. I think the key is to dynamically size the pipstep intervals during a lot progression based on an algorithm that measures near-term price volatility. In my testing, this has worked extremely well. PM me if you'd like more details.
My 2 cents worth....there's no static fix to this problem with these 10Point3 based EA's (or any EA that uses fixed TakeProfit/PipStep settings for that matter). The thing that really kills accounts are the fixed pipstep settings...make them to large and you sacrifice getting into good trades 75% of the time. Make them too small and you get murdered when the deadly towering fastbars appear or the trend shifts for a 250 pip drop without a retracement. You can't win. It's amazing how many posts you see from guys piddling around trying different settings, trying to find that sweet spot. I've found what I believe is a good solution to this issue which I'm implementing in Goblin II. I think the key is to dynamically size the pipstep intervals during a lot progression based on an algorithm that measures near-term price volatility. In my testing, this has worked extremely well. PM me if you'd like more details.
Hi Bluto,
Not sure if was clear in my post.
What i am saying is:
Say the biggest trend in one direction of a currency is 500pips.
If we then set the EA settings to - TP=60, Pips=60 & SecureProfit to 60 (if this is eventually found to be the optimum settings i asked for, btw SecureProfits is made redundant with what i am asking), then the EA can withstand the historical 500pip swing since we have a 600pip window with the progression, where that 60pip retracement is also encountered. The 60 setting might just as well be 70 or 80 or 95 or 100 depending what historical data we come up with. What we are looking for is say a 70pip retracement in a 700pip window or a 95pip retracement in a 950pip window or a 50pip retracement in a 500pip window, etc, etc.
This will not hinder the EA from opening trades as the same rules still apply. It would still open trades regardless whether the settings were 50, 60, 80 or 20 which they are currently set at, since same indicators are used.
What will happen though is that since once a trade is open it will remain open longer than usual since it has to achieve a higher profit target. That's why i am saying that since it remains open longer, it also doesn't open new orders in the progression that often as now we have a higher setting of say every 50, 60, 100 pips in the pipstep. This eventually leaves more equity available for us where we can add more currency pairs for the EA to run on.
The only drawback to what i am suggesting is if a new record swing is made without the adequate retracement.
Your Goblin II sounds interesting also. Send me some info please.
Regards,
hades291
Hi Bluto,
Not sure if was clear in my post.
What i am saying is:
Say the biggest trend in one direction of a currency is 500pips.
If we then set the EA settings to - TP=60, Pips=60 & SecureProfit to 60 (if this is eventually found to be the optimum settings i asked for, btw SecureProfits is made redundant with what i am asking), then the EA can withstand the historical 500pip swing since we have a 600pip window with the progression, where that 60pip retracement is also encountered. The 60 setting might just as well be 70 or 80 or 95 or 100 depending what historical data we come up with. What we are looking for is say a 70pip retracement in a 700pip window or a 95pip retracement in a 950pip window or a 50pip retracement in a 500pip window, etc, etc.
This will not hinder the EA from opening trades as the same rules still apply. It would still open trades regardless whether the settings were 50, 60, 80 or 20 which they are currently set at, since same indicators are used.
What will happen though is that since once a trade is open it will remain open longer than usual since it has to achieve a higher profit target. That's why i am saying that since it remains open longer, it also doesn't open new orders in the progression that often as now we have a higher setting of say every 50, 60, 100 pips in the pipstep. This eventually leaves more equity available for us where we can add more currency pairs for the EA to run on.
The only drawback to what i am suggesting is if a new record swing is made without the adequate retracement.
Your Goblin II sounds interesting also. Send me some info please.
Regards,
hades291Ok, I see what you're saying. Yes, you most definitely could end up with a healthy inventory of open orders which again would exhaust your maxtrades setting and keep further trades from occuring until sufficient retracement occurs to close out those big intervals. The effect from what I can see would help protect from those infrequent but scarey big moves, but what you're having to sacrifice is the nickel/dime trades during ranging and low volatility periods. Once again, I still think a dynamic PipStep sizer is the answer to these martingale progressions. I'm going to PM you with something to look at.
Hi Bluto,
I agree completely with your idea of an adjustable pipstep for this system.
I posted a similar idea in this thread some time ago: (see post #280):
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/174859/page19
What do you think about implementing this?
Dynamic pipstep
Ok, I see what you're saying. Yes, you most definitely could end up with a healthy inventory of open orders which again would exhaust your maxtrades setting and keep further trades from occuring until sufficient retracement occurs to close out those big intervals. The effect from what I can see would help protect from those infrequent but scarey big moves, but what you're having to sacrifice is the nickel/dime trades during ranging and low volatility periods. Once again, I still think a dynamic PipStep sizer is the answer to these martingale progressions. I'm going to PM you with something to look at.
I was thinking about something similar solution that I would have liked to propose to code into a new EA or a new version of an EA.
The dynamic pipsteps should generate dynamic Take Profit settings and the EA should hold a proportion between these two variable.
The third variable could be the lotsize that also could be adjusted in accordance with the volatility.
There are some good volatility indicators that could give the sign to the dynamic pipstep and Take Profit settings.
Regards,
Chrisstoff
P.S.: Bluto, I sent you a PM a few days ago but never received a reply.
terminator v2.3
hello tom ,i've change the lot digit to 2 and now it 's ok for my real account.....
thank you
While a dynamic pipstep seems the way to go, i thought i'd run a few simulations in the Strategy Tester just to give us an indication of some swings. Using data from Alpari datacenter dating back from June 2004 to today.
With a 89.43% modelling quality.
The below is just to give us an indication for further developing the EA.
Starting with $5500. Default settings with the only things changed being the lot sizes to represent micro lots, TP, Pips & SecureProfit. OrderstoProtect being 8, the following is what has been seen with static pipsteps. Maybe the data can give us an indication for the dynamic pipstep parameters.
EURJPY (Long). 55 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $8434.56 from June '04 till today.
12.80 lots was largest lot size during the period which occurred twice.
EURGBP (Short). 40 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $7112.31.
12.80 lots was largest lot size which was encountered once.
USDCAD (Long). 50 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $8271.56.
12.80 lots was largest lot size which occurred 3 times.
EURCHF (Long). 30 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $6844.19.
12.80 lots was largest lot size which occurred once.
USDJPY (Long). 40 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $ 9347.41.
25.60 lots was largest lot size which occurred twice and 12.80 lots which occurred twice also.
AUDUSD (Long). 50 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $7450.82.
12.80 lots was largest lot size which occurred once.
USDCHF (Long). 65 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $8894.88.
12.80 lots was largest lot size which occurred twice.
EURAUD (Short). 40 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $9181.79.
25.60 lots was largest lot size which occurred twice and 12.80 which occurred once.
GBPCHF (Long). 70 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $9400.12.
12.80 lots was largest lot size which occurred twice.
For the EURUSD pairs i ran it with 2 pipstep settings.
EURUSD (Short). 45 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $9269.32.
Largest lot size was 25.60 which occurred once and 12.80 which occurred twice.
EURUSD (Short). 50 for TP, Pips & SecureProfit. Turned $5500 to $ 9096.63.
Largest lot size was 12.80 which occurred twice.
The above should also give us an indication of how many currency pairs can work within an account utilizing an EA. A simple example would be that for a $5500 account to work safely using micro lots, 2 pairs can for example be EUR Long and two pairs can be EUR Short. Reason being that this gives two currency pairs the ability to both be simultaneously 25.60 lots into the progression as it's approximately equivalent to one currency pair being into a 51.20 lot progression.
Hopefully the above data can somehow be utilized for a dynamic pipstep environment.
hades291
Just a heads up for the Terminator 2.03 with Fib progression.
Whilst running some test it ends up losing some money the higher into the progression sequence it goes. In other words once say it's gone to the 7th stage of the progression out of say the 10maxtrades, if that is closed once it hits it's profit target, it's profits will not be enough to cover the losses of the previous lots opened in the sequence.
hades291
hades 291
hello hades 291, i prefer terminator v2.03 with my real account,it's more safer than v2.02,my pips step is 6,8 or 10,it depend the market.....and my take profit is very short (15 is the best for M5)......
