My FX strategy - PipMachine. - page 4
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For all people who are interested in this pip machine method of FXguy2000, that is a posting that I made on the sbfx forum. I think you should read the whole topic over there before you putt anymore time or energy in this method.
The very same happend also on the oanda forum. So don't say that you were not warned....
reagards...iGoR
FXguy2000 and others,
Lets put some things straight.
It is not my intention to be harch or negative in any way. I admire and respect people who are willing to share their findings, systems, methods, strategys or ideas so we could all learn from it.
BUT we have to be correct, sincere and honest in every way and have to prevent to be misleading in any way because there are to many newbies who would jump on any system that they see.
And this misleading is what happend with this method.
I say method because a set of rules who change according the situation can hardly be called a system.There is NOTHING misleading with this strategy at all. And there is no rule changing.
You seem to fail to understand that there is more than one way to interpret a signal.
You thought things were misleading because of the images shown the other day to you, that if one pair had different EMA setting where the other one had a different EMA setting, you naturally jumped to the gun, shouting "contradiction", "rule changing" and all that farse.
People have asked, what EMA's can you use with this system/strategy. And I have said many times, people can use any settings they wish, so I showed people and you the examples of different settings you could use with this system/strategy. But no matter how many times I explained to you, you still insisted that rules were changing and there were contradictions in the system/strategy.
What is a (mecanical) system ?...It is a strategy that you write down on a piece of paper ( a set of rules) and you can give this paper to someone. If the one who receives this paper does exactly what's on that paper then after a longer period of time, the one who gave the paper and the one who received that paper should have exactly the same result ( a few pips difference for spread and broker).
yes you can. There are a large handful of people who have used this strategy exactly as I have typed out many times to people and they're doing just fine!
A system is also a set of rules that one can programm in to trading software. This software generates signals or automated executions. Also here the results will always be the same between al those who would use this system ( again a few pips difference for spread and brokers).
If on the other hand a strategy has rules in such a way that a software programm could not execute the trades because rules the are in contradiction with each other then we call this a discretionary method.Well, there aren't any contradictions. And you haven't even proven that there are. And if they're are contradictions like you say, then why does it work then? By a way of miracle? nah... you're just hung up on this different ema example I showed on another forum and saying there are contradictions.
That brings us to the question can the FXguy200 strategy be called a (mecanical) system?....
The way it was brought to us over the last 2 days we can absolutly not call this a system. As paultx explained in posting # 100 the rules are contradicting with each other (for an entrance: the MACD should be bellow the zero line a lillte bit later the MACD does not have to be bellow zero)( for an exit: easiest of all, close when MACD exits out of histogram. A litlle bit later on one of his charts there were 3 occasions were this happend but there were not taken because when not taken the profit was bigger).That is not a contradiction. One needs to check for the current instance first to see if it's true, if it is, then execute the rule based on that condition.
If the condition is not true, then excute the other rule.
For instance. IF a long trade is open, then the macd doesn't need to be below 0.00 or exiting out of the histogram, why? because if it's already above 0.00, we're in an uptrend any way. So that condition if met, is ignored and the next condition is looked into to see if it's time to close that long trade or not, ie, has the EMA crossed over, or has the ADX shown signs of divergence, or has the Macd exited out of the upper part of the histogram, or ie, started to come down from above 0.00.
So they are not contradictions, they are conditions. A set of rules based on its present situation.
It could be that this was some mistake of the author (we all make mistakes) but then the least what the develloper of a system can do is say : sorry guys I was wrong. Indeed I stated some rules and what I show now on an image is in contradiction with what I staded previously.
To prevent that same problem in the future, he can post again what the rules are ( or macd bellow zero line or above zero line but never the 2 possiblitys because this way one can explain every move in his favour).I have already stated what the rules are, I'm sorry you're finding it hard to understand.
About the indicators one has to use. There is nothing wrong to have severall MA's. But again in the rules they should be explained how and when to use them. The rules should explain for ex. that one has to use the 6 and 10 on the gbp/usd and that a 5 on high and 7 on the eruo/usd and again some other values on the eur/jpy. That is also what you need to do if you program this in a software programm. You can't say to a software programm: Use the MA's wich you find the best to use. THAT DOES NOT WORK. NOT FOR A SOFTWARE PROGRAMM NOT FOR A HUMAN. If you stay with the idea that indeed one CAN implement MA's according not clearly specified situation then we call this a discretionary method and then it is possible to explain every move as a profit at the end of the day.
Here we go again, your gbp/usd 6 & 10,and eur/jpy 5 & 7 nonsense... it's quite obvious now that you do not want to understand that they were just examples. And as I said before, if I knew you were going to be so picky on which currency pair I showed the example on, I would of shown the 5 & 7 and 6 & 10 ema on the same pair, just so that it would fit in your conscience that there were no contradictions, or different rules for each currency pair.
You can tell a EA what EMA's to use, by a pre-defined set of variables. The user enters then into the EA. But those settings must be used for each pair.
So what is the solution to this misunderstanding or whatever one wants to call it:
the perfect solution would be for you to start understanding. You're the only one here that is misunderstanding what I have said. I'm not sure why you keep refusing to understand that those gbp/usd and eur/jpy were just examples. And as I said, if I knew you were going to be so picky and jumpy over all of this, I would of shown the same currency pair for different ema settings when a person asked what ema settings should one use.
I strongly believe that this method or system contains a good backbone and I hope that the develloper can see this method as a system and that we could all see the results and trade accordingly.
friendly greetings...iGoRYou say it contains a good backbone, make your mind up Igor, you were trashing me on another forum, saying that this system/strategy of mine doesn't work.
I have to agree with Igor. This is a method and not a system. It is impossible to automate the way FXGUY explains it.
This is why I did not waste my time with Ninas CatFX50. It had no clear exit strategy and used to have the entry strategy that was constantly changing. The results posted were misleading as they were hypothetical.
FX Guy
See the attached EA using the ADX rules. I think I incorporated most of your rules. I think the performance is worse that before. ADX can be used as a trend strength measurement device, but I think it is makes a lousy system.
Anyway, the system is here for you to mess with. By the way, traditional indicators don't work too well as systems when used in the conventional ways.
Good luck,
Maji
For all people who are interested in this pip machine method of FXguy2000, bellow is a posting that I made on the sbfx forum. I think you should read the whole topic over there before you putt anymore time or energy in this method. The topic is called "this looks like a winner"
The very same happend also on the oanda forum. So don't say that you were not warned....
reagards...iGoR
FXguy2000 and others,
Lets put some things straight.
It is not my intention to be harch or negative in any way. I admire and respect people who are willing to share their findings, systems, methods, strategys or ideas so we could all learn from it.
BUT we have to be correct, sincere and honest in every way and have to prevent to be misleading in any way because there are to many newbies who would jump on any system that they see.
And this misleading is what happend with this method.
I say method because a set of rules who change according the situation can hardly be called a system.
What is a (mecanical) system ?...It is a strategy that you write down on a piece of paper ( a set of rules) and you can give this paper to someone. If the one who receives this paper does exactly what's on that paper then after a longer period of time, the one who gave the paper and the one who received that paper should have exactly the same result ( a few pips difference for spread and broker).
A system is also a set of rules that one can programm in to trading software. This software generates signals or automated executions. Also here the results will always be the same between al those who would use this system ( again a few pips difference for spread and brokers).
If on the other hand a strategy has rules in such a way that a software programm could not execute the trades because the rules are in contradiction with each other then we call this a discretionary method.
That brings us to the question can the FXguy200 strategy be called a (mecanical) system?....
The way it was brought to us over the last 2 days we can absolutly not call this a system. As paultx explained in posting # 100 the rules are contradicting with each other (for an entrance: the MACD should be bellow the zero line a lillte bit later the MACD does not have to be bellow zero)( for an exit: easiest of all, close when MACD exits out of histogram. A litlle bit later on one of his charts there were 3 occasions were this happend but there were not taken because when not taken the profit was bigger but that is easy to explain after the facts).
It could be that this was some mistake of the author (we all make mistakes) but then the least what the develloper of a system can do is say : "sorry guys I was wrong. Indeed I stated some rules and what I show now on an image is in contradiction with what I staded previously."....
To prevent that same problem in the future, he can post again what the rules are ( or macd bellow zero line or above zero line but never the 2 possiblitys because this way one can explain every move in his favour).
About the indicators one has to use. There is nothing wrong to have severall MA's. But again in the rules they should be explained how and when to use them. The rules should explain for ex. that one has to use the 6 and 10 on the gbp/usd and that a 5 on high and 7 on the eruo/usd and again some other values on the eur/jpy. That is also what you need to do if you program this in a software programm. You can't say to a software programm: Use the MA's wich you find the best to use. THAT DOES NOT WORK. NOT FOR A SOFTWARE PROGRAMM NOT FOR A HUMAN. If FXGUY stays with the idea that indeed one CAN implement MA's according not clearly specified situation then we call this a discretionary method and then it is possible to explain every move as a profit AFTER THE FACTS.
So what is the solution to this misunderstanding or whatever one wants to call it:
There ONLY 2 possiblitys:
1) the explenation of the method is adjusted in such a way that there are severall MA's one can use and severall rules wich can be implement according not specified situations and that this is clear for every one that this is a discretionary method were a smart and experrienced trader will make a lott more money then a newbie. That a newbie can even lose money in situation were an experienced trader will make profit.
2)The explenation of this system contains cristal clear rules wich need to be followed 100% in this way that every one should have the same result at the end of the week. Every one stands for newbie or experienced trader or an oanda follower or an SBFX follower. And in no way should the develloper post misleading charts wich contain entrys or exits in cotradiction with the rules or indicators that have parameters different that the those who were discribed in the rules.
Hopefully one of those 2 solutions will see the day light and hopefully we will not get a mixture of solution 1 and 2.If the develloper would choose for solution 2 it would help to post indeed images to support some questions been asked and the results at the end of each week so every one can see that if they would have taken every trade according the rules, what the results would have been. This rapport should contain every trade (winners and losers).
I strongly believe that this method or system contains a good backbone and I hope that the develloper can see this method as a system and that we could all see the results and trade accordingly.
friendly greetings...iGoR
Well, there aren't any contradictions. And you haven't even proven that there are. And if they're are contradictions like you say, then why does it work then? By a way of miracle? nah... you're just hung up on this different ema example I showed on another forum and saying there are contradictions.
proven ??...not only me tryed to proof this but also the person who opend the topic on the sbfx forum with your system proved it:
This is what Paultx ( this is the person who initially brought this system from oanda to the sbfx forum after reading it on oanda. He was at first positive about this system, thats why he brought this system to the sbfx forum. But after 2 days reading the post of Fxguy on the sbfx forum he made some conclusions) wrote:
Quote:
by the way using systems in day trading has a huge advantage and this edge is that with few years' data ( about 10, for example ) we can backtest over some thoudands of trades. This is impressive compared to the limited amount of sample trades deriving from trading systems on daily bars, where you get only few hundreds trades even with some decades of data !
I think the advantage in statistical reliability is simply huge !
So, why not to take advantage of this possibility ?
Because it is not possible with this "system".
Example;
Here is the MACD confirmation rule, for entrance, as stated by FXGuy:
Quote from FXguy2000:
***Wait for the confirmation of the Macd. What you should be looking out for and mainly paying attention to is the red dotted signal line. The buy signal appears whenthe signal line has just EXITED out of the LOWER part of the histogram, i.e., under 0.00. When I say exited out of the histogram, I mean when it comes out of the right hand side of it and the histogram bars are getting smaller
Here is what FXguy2000 wrote yesterday:
Quote:
the macd does not need to be below the zeroline to instanstiate a long signal.
Here is the exit as stated in his rules:
Now, here’s the easiest part of all, when to close the trade.
Quote by FXguy2000
Just simply wait for the Macd to exit out of the histogramand get ready to open another trade when you have confirmations of the others above.
So if you’re long on a trade, keep note of the red dotted line of the Macd’s signal line, wait for it to exit out of the top half of the histogram at the top section. And visa versa for a short trade. This will allow you to scoop up more pips rather than waiting for the opposite signal to be created first before you close the trade.
In his analysis yesterday, in 3 occasions the exit rule was there but he did not take itand waited for one that hind-sight proved to be at the top of the move ??!!...
http://img266.imageshack.us/my.php?...ample1hr3nq.jpg
You cannot program contradictions into an automated backtester and expect meaningful results.
This may be a great system, but we need an updated set of rules. The ones we have do not match FXGuy's analysis.
PS. I haven't even looked at the MAs Igor mentioned, but if he'll bet his farm, I'll bet my house. He has my confidence. Yes, I know him to be a professional trader and fund manager.
The PS from paultx about MA's is were I found out that fxguy uses each time different EMA's on different charts or different occasions to explain moves wich are in his favour. If he would have used each time the same ema he would have lost a lott of money. After fxguy denyed severall times that he changed the EMA's I stated that I 'll bet my farm on it that he changes his ema's continiously. After my "I'll bet my farm on it" statement he had to admit that indeed on 3 different charts he used 3 times differnent EMA's. So if one can change continiously the EMA's (after the facts) this can hardly be called a serious aproach or method.
iGoR
You fail to understand AGAIN Igor.
They were two set of rules.
Let me explain, AGAIN!
--------
Quote from FXguy2000:
***Wait for the confirmation of the Macd. What you should be looking out for and mainly paying attention to is the red dotted signal line. The buy signal appears when the signal line has just EXITED out of the LOWER part of the histogram, i.e., under 0.00. When I say exited out of the histogram, I mean when it comes out of the right hand side of it and the histogram bars are getting smaller
-------
This is WHEN YOU DO NOT HAVE A TRADE OPEN AND YOU ARE LOOKING TO OPEN A TRADE.
========
Here is what FXguy2000 wrote yesterday:
Quote:
the macd does not need to be below the zeroline to instanstiate a long signal.
=========
THIS IS WHEN YOU ARE IN A LONG TRADE. The problem is, you're not following these threads properly, so when someone asks a question and I reply to it, I know what they are referring to, but you're not taking into light if they have a trade open or not. If a long trade is open, then you don't need to concentrate on the lower part of the histogram. You only concentrate on the upper part of the histogram.
And if any of the other indicators let you know there is going to be a trend change, then act on those to close the long trade. Thus, not needing to wait for the zeroline to instanstiate a long signal.
And EVEN IF the long trade hasn't been open yet, and the macd hasn't confirmed a LONG signal, don't worry about it, if the EMA and ADX show a long signal and assuming that the ADX is a strong signal, then act off it.
Not all the indicators give you the signals at the same time, but when they do, you know you're in for a huge win.
The PS from paultx about MA's is were I found out that fxguy uses each time different EMA's on different charts or different occasions to explain moves wich are in his favour. If he would have used each time the same ema he would have lost a lott of money. After fxguy denyed severall times that he changed the EMA's I stated that I 'll bet my farm on it that he changes his ema's continiously. After my "I'll bet my farm on it" statement he had to admit that indeed on 3 different charts he used 3 times differnent EMA's. So if one can change continiously the EMA's (after the facts) this can hardly be called a serious aproach or method.
iGoRFor crying OUT LOUD! Why are you so hooked up on this issue that I use different EMA's for different pairs?
I don't... I REPEAT! I DO NOT! UNDERSTAND?
I was NOT trying to show people things that are in my favor... I have said probably about 4 times to you already, but you wont lay off this issue about these different emas...
The question that was asked to me, was what ema's do I use. I Told them what EMA's I use, and gave them different examples to let them know they don't have to stick with my EMA settings and they can use anyone they wish that fits them best. You are the only person on this forum that doesn't understand this and wants to make a big issue about it...
I know English isn't your first language, but I mean, come on, you're typing enough English language to understand what I'm saying, why continue to ignore my answers, 5 answers now to your 5 posts about this EMA issue.
P.S
Looks like you lost your farm.
P.P.S
Don't speculate, you'll lose!
That is the same as I would say: I HAVE A SYSTEM. it is based up on technical indicators. The indicators can be found in MT4.0. If you use the correct ones and with the right parameters you will see it makes a great system with great results.
As you say, you can use any one that fits you best..AFTER THE FACTS TO EXPLAIN EVERY MOVEMENT IN YOUR FAVOUR....
And about my english ....that counts for you to...you should learn how to read because no where in the rules that you posted on posting#1 do you say or claim that one can use whatever kind of ema...on the contrary...you say that one should use a 6 ema and 10 ema !!....so if you say that one should use ema 6 and 10 you CAN NOT post charts (on the sbfx forum) were you call trades based on ema5 on the High (instead of the closing price) and ema 7 to call of trades (after the facts) to show were you would have made profit. Were if one would have used the ema 6 and 10 he would have made serious losses....
So again, guys be carefull of this person. His intentions are not sincere.
iGoR
FX Guy
See the attached EA using the ADX rules. I think I incorporated most of your rules. I think the performance is worse that before. ADX can be used as a trend strength measurement device, but I think it is makes a lousy system.
Anyway, the system is here for you to mess with. By the way, traditional indicators don't work too well as systems when used in the conventional ways.
Good luck,
MajiHi Maji,
Thanks for taking the time to modify the EA.
Here's my observations.
I tried this on the 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute chart, 1hr chart, 4hr chart, and daily. I altered the Timeframe to 5, 15, 30, 60, 240, 1440 respectively in the EA too.
I made a test run with the ADXLevel at 20.
the result wasn't that good.
So I made another test run, and set the ADX level at 30 and some other ADXLevels.
After close inspection, there are a few things to be tweaked, once they are ironed out, I htink you'd have yourself a winner.
At this present time the EA is doing this.
1) for a long trade, it buys the trades when ADXlevel is met and when +DI is level with the ADXlevel. It closes the long trade when +DI falls below the ADXlevel. With all that being well and good. Ideally I think it should wait for the ADX line as well rather than closing the trade when the +DI line falls below the ADXLevel.
ie, like this.
LONG.
IF ADX & +DI > 20 == LONG
IF LONG and (+DI && ADX < 20) CLOSE the LONG Trade.
2), the -DI doesn't wait for the ADXlevel, it opens and closes trades regardless if the ADXlevel is above or below the setting. The +DI does open only when the ADX and +DI are above the ADXlevel.
ie, it's doing this:
SHORT.
IF -DI > 20 == SHORT
IF SHORT and (-DI < 20) CLOSE the SHORT Trade.
When I think it should be doing this.
SHORT.
IF ADX & -DI > 20 == SHORT
IF SHORT and (-DI && ADX < 20) CLOSE the SHORT Trade.
Those are the modifications, if you're up to it.
What I have also noticed on a few time frames that there is a slight delay by 2 or 3 bars before the trade opens. I'm not sure why it's doing that and it's missing some potential big moves on the 30 minute and 1hr, 4hr and daily T.F's
As you say, you can use any one that fits you best..AFTER THE FACTS TO EXPLAIN EVERY MOVEMENT IN YOUR FAVOUR....
Not at all. Again, you have this inability to understand.
And about my english ....that counts for you to...you should learn how to read because no where in the rules that you posted on posting#1 do you say or claim that one can use whatever kind of ema...on the contrary..
I can read very well, it's you that doesn't!
.you say that one should use a 6 ema and 10 ema !!....so if you say that one should use ema 6 and 10 you CAN NOT post charts (on the sbfx forum) were you call trades based on ema5 on the High
yes I can, when they are ONLY examples to to show people they can experiment which EMA they want to use... for crying out loud man.
So again, guys be carefull of this person. His intentions are not sincere.
iGoRI think people should be aware of you, you have this major problem with reading properly!