Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for EUR/USD - page 6

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.10 15:08

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD and Brent Crude Oil: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-03-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 238K
  • forecast data is 196K
  • actual data is 235K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining."
  • "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down from +157,000 to +155,000, and the change for January was revised up from +227,000 to +238,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 9,000 more than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 209,000 per month."

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EUR/USD M5: 45 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Eur USD

Susan Davidson, 2017.03.11 05:58

what are we expecting trend of eur usd before 2nd quarter start

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 10:30

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, March 12 - March 19 (based on the article)

EUR/USD managed to edge up as the ECB expressed some cautious optimism. Another appearance by Draghi as well as inflation and trade figures stand out in the upcoming week. 


  1. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 13:30. The President of the ECB has another opportunity to move the euro.
  2. German CPI (final): Tuesday, 7:00.
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The all-European figure stood at 17.1 points last time and is expected to hit 19.3 now.
  4. Industrial output: Tuesday, 10:00.
  5. French CPI (final): Wednesday, 7:45. According to the flash read for February, prices increased by 0.1% in the eurozone’s second-largest economy. The figure will probably be confirmed.
  6. Employment Change: Wednesday, 10:00.
  7. CPI (final): Thursday, 10:00.
  8. Trade Balance: Friday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoys a wide trade surplus, driven by Germany’s export machine. After a positive 24.5 billion in December, a narrower surplus is on the cards now: 22.3 billion.

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.13 15:22

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 11 pips range price movement 

2017-03-13 13:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at a joint conference organized by the European Central Bank and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in Frankfurt.

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From official report:

  • "There are many reasons why it is a priority today in the euro area to address weak productivity growth. But while some progress can be made in innovation, it is not in my view the sole issue. Equally important for the euro area is to facilitate and encourage the spread of new technology from the frontier to the laggard firms."
  • "Of course, creating the right regulatory framework and market conditions to nurture innovation and promote its transformation into new products and processes is complex, and there is no particular established winning formula. But there are a number of countries in the euro area that have proven relatively more successful at putting in place an effective “innovation ecosystem”."
  • "Simply by diffusing better the technology we already have in the euro area, we could make sizeable gains in productivity. In other words, there is much we can still do to reverse the aggregate productivity slowdown and dispel pessimism about our future."

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.15 19:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and EUR/USD: Fed Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2017-03-15 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is 1.00%
  • actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report:

  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."
  • "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.00 percent, effective March 16, 2017."

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GBP/USD M5: 85 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events


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EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events



 

Here's my prediction for EUR/USD

EURUSD

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 11:47

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, March 19 - March 26 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a positive week, taking advantage of the Fed’s dovish hike and the favorable outcome of the Dutch elections. What’s next?


  1. German PPI: Monday, 7:00. A more moderate rate of 0.4% is on the cards.
  2. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday, 11:00.
  3. Jens Weidmann talks: Monday, 16:45. The president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, speaks in Loerrach and his speech carries more weight this time.
  4. Current Account: Wednesday, 9:00. A surplus of 29.3 billion is on the cards.
  5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 7:00. A tick up to 10.1 is predicted.
  6. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. The European Central Bank follows up on its rate decisions by releasing the data that was available to the Governing Council while making its decision. Any optimism about inflation could help the euro.
  7. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 14:00.
  8. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 15:00. The figure is projected to remain unchanged.
  9. Flash PMIs: Friday, during the European morning: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the euro-zone.

 
Cuong Truong:

Here's my prediction for EUR/USD



I am looking for a 1.09000 level before end of the Month. This will allow me to have a good SELL entry for my expected downtrend for the Month of April 2017. I am expecting that the eurusd price will test 1.04000 level by April or first week of may.


Happy trading..

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.23 15:48

EUR/USD: intra-day ranging for the bullish to be resumed or for the correction to be started (based on the article)

H4 price is located above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.0824/1.0769 support/resistance levels since 21st of march this year waiting for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "The 240 minute EUR/USD Forex chart has been rallying for 4 weeks. Yet, the rally over the past 6 days has had many reversals and bear bars. It therefore is probably the start of a trading range."
  • "While the daily EUR/USD chart has been rallying up from a higher low major trend reversal for 4 weeks, it has not yet strongly broken above the neck line. In addition, the rally is a wedge top on the 240 minute chart. Furthermore, it has been especially weak over the past 6 days. These 6 days look like a bull leg in a trading range. Hence, the EUR/USD chart will probably pull back to test the most recent higher low, which was Tuesday’s low."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.24 15:56

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Gold (XAU/USD) and USD/CNH: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 2.0%
  • forecast data is 1.1%
  • actual data is 1.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From abcnews article:

  • "The Commerce Department said Friday that orders for durable goods rose 1.7 percent in February and an upwardly revised 2.3 percent in January. Orders so far this year are running 1.6 percent higher than in the first two months of 2016."
  • "The growth indicates that manufacturers are steadily recovering from a rough patch that began in 2015 when lower energy prices and slowereconomic growth worldwide cut into demand for U.S. factory goods. The report contained some weakness in a few sectors such as motor vehicles, but it is among several indicators that point to an ongoing rebound."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events



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