EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 28.08 - 04.09: correction to the ranging bearish reversal - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.02 10:46

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A 180K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless rate may trigger a near-term decline in EUR/USD as the ongoing improvement in the labor market puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later."
  • "The next interest-rate decision on September 21 may reveal a growing dissent within the FOMC as Chair Janet Yellen argues ‘the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months,’ but a marked slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings may drag on interest-rate expectations as the committee persistently warns ‘most survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.’"


Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 180K or Greater

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Job/Wage growth Disappoints
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located between 100 SMA and 200 SMA for the ranging market condition waiting for the direction for the bullish trend to be resumed or to the bearish reversal to be started within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.1244 located above 200 SMA and near-above 100 SMA on the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1122 support level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started on the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish market condition.

  • If the price will break 1.1244 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.1122 support on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.02 14:48

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-09-02 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries."

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EUR/USD M5: 91 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event



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