Press review - page 547

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD - weekly bullish reversal to be started; 0.8066 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bear market rally to crossing 200-SMA bullish reversal level to above together with ascending triangle pattern with 0.8066 resistance level for the bullish reversal, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels near bullish reversal.

• "The Australian Dollar shot sharply higher, posting the largest gain in five months against its US counterpart following the release of minutes from July’s FOMC meeting. Overall positioning hints that the rising trend established from May/June lows may be starting to resume."
• "From here, a daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7979 opens the door for a test of the 0.8066-87 area (July 27 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7913 clears the way for another challenge of the 0.7784-0.7821 area (38.2% Fib retracement, trend line)."

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 - daily ranging bullish; 2,437 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 2.490 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed; and
• 2,437 support level located in the bearish reversal to be started in slowly ranging way.

By the way, Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the secondary correction to be started, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the current trend as the ranging bullish.

• "Yesterday, we saw some intra-day whipsaws following the release of the minutes from the July FOMC minutes, but net-net the market ended the day right where it was two hours earlier. Looking ahead, tomorrow brings U. of Michigan Confidence for August, potentially a market-mover, but look for it to have more of an impact on FX/rates than equities."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - daily bearish with 110.94/108.72 key levels (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within 110.94/108.72 levels for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the secondary rally ro be started.

• "At first glance, the Japanese Yen is having things very much all its own way against the US Dollar. USD/JPY remains in an obvious downtrend from the last significant peak – July 11’s 114.06. On a daily closing basis, that peak was itself lower than the previous notable top, May 10’s 114.30. Another bad sign for any remaining bulls. Moreover, recent falls are only an acceleration of the more gradual downtrend that’s been with us all year."
• "However, for the short term it might be a good idea to keep an eye on the June 14 intraday low at 108.80. That’s just about where the latest foray lower bounced between August 11 and August 14. It seems to be the most significant obvious barrier to progress lower now. It’s easy enough to see why this might be so. 108.80 is the lowest point for the currency pair short of the outright 2017 nadir of 108.11, hit on April 17. If you are uncomitted at this point it might be a good idea to wait and see if these two key support levels survive this latest attack before taking a position."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-08-18 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is -0.1%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

==========

From official report :

• "Prices were up in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to July, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. The household operations, furnishings and equipment index and the clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis."
• "Transportation costs rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in July, following a 0.6% increase in June. Gasoline prices contributed most to the gain in prices, as well as to their acceleration, rising 4.6% in the 12 months to July, after posting a 1.4% decline in June. The purchase of passenger vehicles index increased 0.2% year over year in July, after declining 0.2% the previous month. At the same time, passenger vehicle insurance premiums rose at a slower rate in the 12 months to July than they did in June."

==========

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - daily bearish; 11,928 support is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition: price is testing 11,928 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish rend to be continuing.

"Looking at the German index from a pure technical standpoint, in a bubble, the trend off the June highs after breaking the neckline of the H&S topping formation continues to point towards more weakness. And, as long as it stays below the area surrounding 12300 sellers will continue to be in control. Looking lower, support arrives in the 11950/40 vicinity where the 200-day MA and 8/11 swing-low arrive. After that, 11850, then the measured move target of approximately 11600. The ‘MM’ target isn’t an actual support level but based on the size of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top (height subtracted from the neckline)."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bullish ranging within narrow levels waiting for the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish trend by the ranging within narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.1905 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.1661 support level located on the border of the secondary correction to be started.

Ichimoku cloud is coming to be more closer to the market price and 1.1661 level so the bearish reversal may be started earlier than expected for example.

• "Last week, trading in EURUSD was dominated by choppy back-n-forth price action. On three different days the euro traded below the prior week’s low of 11689, and each time it rejected lower prices and closed the session with a bounce. Overall, since topping out around the 2010 low near 11900 the euro has been constructively working off overbought conditions. This is viewed as a positive for the intermediate-term outlook, but still holds a bearish tilt in the very short-term."
• "While the current configuration could be considered a valid ‘bull-flag’, some more chop within the confines of the descending channel (‘bull-flag’) will do some good in terms of building a stronger, more mature pattern. A drop to the April trend-line and lower parallel near the 2016 high of 11616 would make for a good final test of confluent support within the bullish sequence. In the event we see a breakout above the upper parallel, focus will quickly shift towards 11910 and a higher high towards the 2012 low at 12041, and possibly higher."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, August 20 - August 27 (based on the article)

The US dollar was looking for a new direction and it had a mixed week. The last full week of August features US housing data, durable goods orders and perhaps most importantly, the Jackson Hole Symposium. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. A similar figure is on the cards now: 615K.
2. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
3. UK GDP (second estimate): Thursday, 8:30. 
4. US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, Thursday, 14:00. A small rise could be seen now: 5.57 million is projected.
5. US durable goods orders: Friday, 12:30. A fall of 5.7% is on the cards for the headline while the core number is expected to rise by 0.4%.
6. Jackson Hole Symposium – Draghi’s speech: Friday 19:00 This key economic gathering in Wyoming has been used to set the stage for significant changes in monetary policy, such as some of the Fed’s QE programs and also the ECB’s QE program. The topic for this year’s gathering is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”. The key speeches are expected by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi.
7. Jackson Hole Symposium: Yellen’s speech: will be eyed for any hints about the next rate hike. We already know that the Fed intends to begin squeezing its balance sheet in September, but the fate of the December rate hike is unclear given the recent softness in inflation.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, August 20 - August 27 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was pressured and slipped lower, but did not go far. Will it stay in range?. The upcoming week features the PMIs, key German surveys and Draghi’s highly anticipated speech in Jackson Hole.

1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The all-European measure stood at 35.6 in July.
2. Flash PMIs: Wednesday, 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the euro-zone.
3. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. A small increase is expected.
4. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 13:00.
5. German Final GDP: Friday, 6:00. The German economy enjoyed robust growth and served as a locomotive. The final read will likely confirm the previous one.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. Another small increase is expected now.
7. Draghi speaks at Jackson Hole: Friday 19:00. The announcement of Draghi’s speech in Jackson Hole already triggered high expectations. The president of the ECB used his 2014 speech in Wyoming to provide significant hints about the central bank’s QE announcement that followed in January 2015. This time, he is expected to hint about the beginning of the end of QE: an announcement of QE tapering to come in the Autumn and to begin in 2018. In the recent rate decision, Draghi stressed that there has been no discussion about tapering but his dovishness did not convince markets. Some expect him to play down expectations also now, in order to halt the rise of the euro. However, the recent strength of the common currency reflects the strength of the economy, and it will be hard for Draghi to change the course, even temporarily.

[Sergey Golubev]

Stock Market - what to watch the week of August 21-25 (based on the article)

Monday

• It's business as usual on Wall Street as a partial solar eclipse casts something of a shadow over New York City.

Tuesday

• Salesforce shares quarterly earnings after the bell.

Wednesday

• New home sales in the U.S. are out for July.
• Lowe's and American Eagle report earnings in the morning.
• Hewlett-Packard and Williams-Sonoma share results in the afternoon.
• Whole Foods investors cast their votes on the proposed $13.7 billion acquisition by Amazon.

Thursday

• The three-day annual summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins.
• Existing home sales in the U.S. are released for July.

Friday

• A verdict is handed to Samsung's billionaire heir apparent Jay Y. Lee, who has been accused of bribing a government official in order to secure a merger that prosecutors say was intended to consolidate control of the nation's biggest conglomerate.

[Sergey Golubev]

The most important tip for bitcoin millionaires (based on the article)

Daily price is far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on bullish breakout by 4,466 resistance level together with ascending triangle pattern to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

Don’t treat lucky money differently than hard earned money, because you run the risk of losing part or all of it.