Press review - page 517

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD, French elections, and more (adapted from the article)

Daily price is breaking the six-month high level at 1.0998 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish with ascending triangle pattern to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

By the way, the next bullish target is 20-month high at 1.1326.

Neil Wilson, a senior markets analyst at City of London brokerage ETX Capital (the London-based Scottish analyst): "The result sends a loud signal to investors that political risks in France and across Europe are receding and that is undoubtedly supportive of European equities and the euro. Nevertheless this Macron win is very much a pro-risk event. The relief rally we have seen since the first round looks set to continue even though Sunday’s expected result was to some extent largely priced in."

Neil Mellor, Senior Currency Strategist and managing director at BNY Mellon: "The lack of a well-oiled Party machine behind Macron risks the possibility of a weak Presidency if there is ‘cohabitation’ i.e. a politically non-aligned President and Prime Minister, which last happened in 1997. Nevertheless, we would not be surprised were the euro pushing toward US$1.11 in early Asian trading. After all one of the features of the EUR in recent years has been its use as a funding currency for carry trade activity, which has resulted in the curious outcome that the currency  has often strengthened during times of Eurozone stress and has fallen amidst rising optimism."

Bill Street, head of investments for EMEA at State Street Global Advisors: "It gives markets a much deserved breather from European politics. This result, combined with last week’s preliminary Greek debt agreement, will be enough to support a short-term relief rally. Looking forward, Macron only offers upside surprises. In a do-nothing scenario, we have the status quo of political paralysis, but with a favourable external environment and steady growth improvement. In the goldilocks scenario, he gets a working parliament and builds a partnership with Germany to launch meaningful reforms. That would deliver a substantial boost to markets by year-end, which is currently not priced in."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-05-09 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

==========

From official report:

• "The trend estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in March 2017. This follows a rise of 0.1% in February 2017 and a rise of 0.1% in January 2017."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.1% in March 2017. This follows a fall of 0.2% in February 2017 and a rise of 0.5% in January 2017."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - Daily Ranging Bearish (based on the article)

Daily price is below ichimoku cloud for the bearish ranging wthin the narrow s/r levels:

• 99.34 resistance located in the beginning of the secondary rally to be started, and
• 98.41 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

• "Traders hoping to gain an understanding of the LT direction of the USD would do well to keep an eye on the Trendline connecting higher lows since 2014. Currently, DXY is showing good Trendline support over the longer-term near 98.50. The test of the 3-year Trendline aligns with long-term seasonality studies where DXY has risen in 9 of the past ten years. However, recent momentum in past months have been disappointing DXY bulls, and the EUR is a key reason why DXY fails to gain upside traction."
• "Much of the EUR downside since 2014, when DXY took off higher on the chart below, has been exasperated by fears of “what’s next?,” for the Euro. However, a look at the options market will show you that over the next two months, the 25-delta risk reversal is trading at its highest levels for the year. In other words, options traders have never worried less about EUR downside relative to the USD this year, which could keep EUR/USD trading higher on average."
• "Any traders with an upside bias on DXY should continue to watch this Trendline support. Ichimoku currently favors downside momentum continuing and there remains hard resistance at the gap high after the first round of the French Presidential election when EUR/USD gapped over the weekend by its largest margin ever from 1.0750 to ~1.0900."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily correction to be started; 1.0741 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish trend with the seondary correction to be started yesterday by bounced from 1.1017 resistance level to below. The price is testing 1.0874 and 1.0851 support levels for the correction to be continuing with Fibo bearish reversal level at 1.0741 as a nearest target to re-enter.

• "The Euro recoiled from twelve-month down trend resistance against the US Dollar, validating earlier signs of ebbing upside momentum. Confirmation of a larger top implying continuation downward is still pending however as prices test the bounds of the short-term uptrend."
• "A daily close below trend line support at 1.0934 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0862. Alternatively, a break above major resistance at 1.1002 (trend line, 76.4% Fib expansion) paves the way for a challenge of the 100% threshold at 1.1136."
• "Entering short looks increasingly compelling but risk/reward considerations argue against the trade for now. With that in mind, an entry order to sell EUR/USD at 1.0955 has been set up. If triggered on a bounce, the trade will initially target 1.0826 and have a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 1.1002."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-05-10 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

• past data is 0.9%
• forecast data is 1.1%
• actual data is 1.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

==========

From rttnews article:

• "Consumer prices in China were up 1.2 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday."
• "The bureau also said that producer prices climbed 6.4 percent on year - shy of forecasts for 6.7 percent and down from 7.6 percent a month earlier."

==========

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Chinese CPI news event

[Grigorios Papaioannou]

EURUSD is the only pair trading lower after elections, gbpusd, usdjpy have made their move...

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and range price movement 

2017-05-09 12:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the impact of monetary policy at the Dutch House of Representatives, in Netherlands. 

==========

From official report:

• "Specifically, the euro area faced two interlinked and successive crises – a financial crisis in 2008 and a sovereign debt crisis that started to emerge in 2011 and derailed the rebound. The recovery that began in mid-2013 lost steam in the summer of 2014 as the external environment became more uncertain. At the beginning of 2014, credit growth was contracting at an annual pace of more than 3%, while overall economic growth was stalling. Since the start of 2013, inflation had drifted consistently away from the ECB’s target rate of below but close to 2% over the medium term, reaching levels below 1%. Without counteracting measures, this low inflation could have turned into a deflationary spiral which would have deepened our economies’ woes considerably."
• "However, in order to reap the full benefits of our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute much more decisively to strengthening economic growth. This depends on the policies pursued by Member States, where national parliaments have a key role to play. But it also depends on our collective ability to further strengthen the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union in a way that fully reflects the interdependence among the euro area economies. Pursuing such policies will ensure a higher growth trajectory."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event

[Sergey Golubev]

CAC 40 bounced from 5429.43 resistance to the bullish ranging to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 5429.43 resistance level to below for the ranging market condiion to be started. 

If the daily price breaks 5429.43 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 5295.47 support level to below on daily close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the daily price breaks 4980.41 support level to below on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

• "The CAC 40 has opened Wednesday’s trading lower, potentially decline for the third consecutive session after printing a new 2017 high to start the week. Despite this recent string of losses, traders may still consider the CAC 40 technically in an ongoing uptrend. At present the CAC 40 is trading down -0.02%. Leaders for the session include Michelin (+1.25%) and Veolia Environnement (+0.91%). Top Losers for today’s trading include both Vinci (-1.22) and ArcelorMittal (-0.97%)."
• "Technically, the CAC 40 remains in an ongoing short and long term uptrend. If prices close at near present levels, it will mark the 15th daily close above the displayed 10 day EMA (exponential moving average). This line is now found at 5,357.96 and will continue to be a reference of support as long as the CAC 40 continues to trend higher. If prices bounce above the EMA, traders may again look for the CAC 40 to trade back towards the weekly and yearly high at 5498.90."

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD - price broke intra-day Ichimoku cloud for the bearish trend (based on the article)

H4 price broke intra-day 72/144/288 Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. The price is moved along trendline channel by testing 1214.23 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "Gold prices have made little net progress over the past four months. Little net progress is typical of a corrective consolidative move. Gold prices, as of today, are still less than a 38% retracement of the December 2016 to February 2017 up trend. A shallow retracement of that nature suggests the longer term bull trend from December is not quite over."
• "Using Elliott Wave theory as a model, the sideways correction that began February 27 is likely a ‘B’ wave. Two higher probability patterns is that we are in a ‘B’ wave triangle or a ‘B’ wave flat pattern. Both patterns imply the same thing in that a bullish resolution eventually takes place. The start of the next bull run depends on which pattern (the triangle or the flat) emerges."

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

• "Even though the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be in no rush to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, the fresh updates to the quarterly inflation report may fuel the relief rally in the British Pound should the central bank highlight an improved outlook for the U.K. economy."
• "Moreover, the policy statement may reveal a growing rift within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) following the 8 to 1 split in March, and a greater dissent may heighten the appeal of Sterling as it boosts interest-rate expectations. In contrast, the majority may merely try to buy more time as ‘Brexit’ continues to cloud the outlook for growth & inflation, and more of the same from the BoE may undermine the recent recovery in the GBP/USD as market participants push back bets for a rate-hike."

Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Boosts Economic Forecasts, Reveals Larger Dissent

• "Need a green, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a long GBP/USD trade".
• "If market reaction favors a bullish Sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate lots".
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward".
• "Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit".

Bearish GBP Trade: More of the Same From Governor Mark Carney & Co. 

• "Need a red, five-minute GBP/USD candle to favor a short Sterling position".
• "Carry out the same setup as the bullish Sterling trade, just in reverse".

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.

• If D1 price breaks 1.2987 resistance level to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If price breaks 1.2830 to below on close daily bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.