Deutsche Bank analysis – EUR/USD targets (based on forexlive article)
Near-term, Deutsche Bank thinks that the recent pause in EUR/USD
drop could extend into year-end with market positioning very extended,
real yield fair value still in the high 1.20s, and ECB expectations
running ahead of what was delivered at its December meeting last
Going out to next year, DB sees more downside to the currency
with the risks being skewed to greater, rather than lesser weakness. DB
outlines 3 reasons behind this view:
In line with this view, DB targets EUR/USD in 2015 at 1.22 for Q1, 1.20 for Q2, 1.18 for Q3, and 1.15 for Q4.
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ramasubburam, 2014.12.10 13:45
what will be happen by ECB draghi QE approach ..........
We can start all movements behind to solve and escape from ECB draghi QE approach in EURO pair ,bcz QE make more changes at QE1 Time ..........so good comments welcome now here
NZDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
Trading News Events: U.S. Advance Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales
A pickup in Advance U.S. Retail Sales may generate short-term decline in
EUR/USD as stronger consumption raises the growth and inflation outlook
for the world’s largest economy.
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, an expansion in household spending is likely to heighten the
appeal of the greenback and boost interest rate expectations as a
growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize
monetary policy in mid-2015.
However, sticky inflation along with the slowdown in private sector
credit may drag on household spending, and a dismal development may
foster a more meaningful rebound in EUR/USD as it raises the FOMC’s
scope to zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for an extended period of
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Climbs 0.4% or More
EUR/USD Daily Chart
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
XAGUSD, M5, 2014.12.11
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
XAGUSD ( silver/dollar )
Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014
newdigital, 2014.12.12 05:39
Forex: Bearish EUR/USD Formation Remains in Focus- AUD Hit by RBA Rhetoric
EUR/USD retains the bearish formation amid growing bets for ECB QE,
while the aussie struggles to hold its ground as the RBA toughens the
Trading News Events: U. of Michigan Confidence (based on dailyfx article)
Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence
Another uptick in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spur a
further decline in the EUR/USD amid growing speculation for a Fed rate
hike in mid-2015.
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
Positive data prints coming out of the U.S economy should continue to
fuel interest rate expectations and heighten the bullish sentiment
surrounding the greenback as a growing number of Fed officials scale
back their dovish tone for monetary policy.
However, we the survey may disappoint as U.S. households face sticky
price pressures paired with the ongoing slack in the real economy, and a
dismal print may spur a larger correction in the greenback as it drags
on expectations for higher borrowing-costs.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U. of Michigan Survey Climbs to 89.5 or Higher
AUDIO - Global Commodities with Frank Holmes (based on dailyfx article)
CEO and Chief Investment Officer of U.S Global Investors, Frank Holmes joins Merlin Rothfeld and John O’Donnell
for a look at the macro issues facing global markets. Demographics play
a big part in Mr. Holmes’s optimistic view about markets going forward.
The trio also look at the prospects for Oil moving forward and a
potential bottom around $50.
GBPUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The British Pound finished the week modestly higher but continued to
trade in a tight range versus the US Dollar. A busy week ahead threatens
to force a decisive break in the GBPUSD and other pairs.
The simultaneous release of UK Jobless Claims and Earnings data with Bank of England Minutes
will likely prove the highlight in the days ahead, and GBPUSD traders
should likewise keep a close eye on a highly-anticipated US Federal
Reserve interest rate decision that same day. Earlier-week UK Consumer Price Index inflation figures as well as late-week UK Retail Sales results could also elicit reactions from GBP pairs.
Whether or not the Sterling mounts a sustained recovery versus the US
Dollar will likely depend on the direction of interest rate
expectations for both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. A
sharp compression in the spread between UK and US government bond
yields helps explain why the British Pound fell to fresh 14-month lows
versus the Greenback through November. Yet a great deal of uncertainty
surrounds both the Fed and BoE; any surprises out of the coming week’s
economic data and central bank rhetoric could easily force a repricing
of yields and the GBPUSD exchange rate.
The US Dollar in particular looks vulnerable on any disappointments
from the Federal Reserve, and indeed the previously-unstoppable USD finally showed concrete signs of slowing
through the past week of trade. And though the Sterling could itself
see fairly significant volatility on UK event risk, we expect that the
overall US Dollar trend will ultimately dictate whether the GBPUSD makes
a sustained recovery.
USDJPY Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The near-term outlook for USD/JPY remains mired by Japan’s December 14
snap election, but the ongoing deviation in the policy outlook should
continue to produce a further advance in the exchange rate as a growing
number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize
monetary policy in 2015.
Despite the risk for a material shift in fiscal policy, recent
headlines suggests ‘Abenomics’ will continue to influence the Japanese
Yen in the year ahead as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is widely
expected to retain majority in the lower-house of the National Diet. As
a result, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue to highlight a dovish
outlook for monetary policy at the December 19 meeting, and Governor
Haruhiko Kuroda may keep the door open to further expand the
asset-purchase program as the technical recession undermines the
central bank’s scope to achieve the 2% target for inflation.
In contrast, there’s growing speculation the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) will remove the ‘considerable time’ phrase and
implement a more hawkish twist to the forward-guidance as lower energy
costs boost disposable incomes for U.S. households. The improved
outlook for personal consumption – one of the leading drivers of growth
– may encourage the Fed to boost its economic and interest rate
projections as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery in
2015. With that said, the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback
may gather pace over the remainder of the year should the fresh
developments coming out of the FOMC heighten interest rate
In turn, the fundamental outlook continues to cast a long-term bullish
outlook for USD/JPY, and we will retain the approach to buy-dips in
the exchange rate unless there’s a meaningful change in fiscal/monetary
policy. Dollar-yen appears to be coiling for a move higher as it holds
above the 117.00 handle, with the next key topside objective for
USD/JPY comes in around 122.30-40, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from
the 2002 decline.
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