Press review - page 503

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for CAC 40 (based on the article)

CAC 40 - "The CAC has a similar rising wedge as the DAX, but with the apex arriving at a very interesting spot – the trend-line running down from the 2000 record high (crosses over peaks in 2007 & 2015). If both the DAX and CAC negate the bearish rising wedge, then the CAC will be trading above long-term trend resistance. Given the trend-lines duration it would be best to wait for a strong weekly close above before calling it a valid breakout. But if it does, then we could see much higher prices. For now, though, we will treat it as a major barrier."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2017-03-27 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

• past data is 111.0
• forecast data is 111.2
• actual data is 112.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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From official report:

• "Sentiment among German managers continues to improve this month. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 112.3 points in March from 111.1 (seasonally adjusted) points last month, reaching its highest level since July 2011. The upwards trend in assessments of the current business situation continues unabated. The business outlook for companies also improved again this month. The upswing in the German economy is gaining impetus."

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EUR/USD M5: 4range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Helpful Site?

pereacatalina46, 2017.03.29 03:19

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Helpful Site?

Yerlan Imangeldinov, 2017.03.29 06:04

Professionals never chat on a blog they don't have time for this.

For me this site only helpful http://www.tradingeconomics.com/

[Sergey Golubev]

Hang Seng Index (HSI) - 85% fall for Huishan shares is nothing; daily HSI is still on bullish (based on the article)

Huishan shares on daily chart was dropped to 3.85/3.86 support level: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed from the bullish trend to the bearish market condition. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

HSI is still on the bullish area of the daily chart: price is located above Ichimoku cloud by the breaking symmetric triangle pattern to above for the 24,656 resistance level as the nearest bullish target.

• "One of the most striking things about the 85 percent plunge in Huishan Dairy Holdings Co.’s stock on Friday was how little it surprised market observers in Hong Kong."
• "There are regulatory discounts to the price-earnings multiple,” said Niklas Hageback, a Hong Kong-based money manager who helps oversee about $180 million at Valkyria Kapital Ltd. “Valuation is lagging and this has become a market-wide problem."
• "The Hang Seng index trades for about 13 times reported earnings, versus 22 for the MSCI World Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.3534 resistance located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.3263 support located in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started.

• "As of Wednesday, March 29, 2017, Crude Oil has a 20-day rolling inverse relationship with USD/CAD and USD/MXN of -0.557 and -0.579 respectively. The inverse correlation shows us as Oil moves higher, USD/CAD and USD/MXN move lower, albeit not perfectly. Therefore, we should watch Oil to get a sense of what may happen next with USD/CAD."
• "Currently, USOIL is trading near the 200-DMA, and a failure to break back above on a sustainable basis may lead to further upside in USD/CAD, which the current channel seems to favor."
• "The spot price of 1.3330 sits above the March 22 low support at 1.32635. Just below the March 22 low is the 50% retracement of the late January to March Range at 1.32517 followed by the 61.8% retracement at 1.31846. Such levels should be watched if Oil gains compound. The resistance in focus in the current move lower is the March 28 high of 1.3414. A reversal below the proven support of 1.3050/150 would need to break to turn the technical view from neutral to bearish."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-03-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 1.9%
• forecast data is 2.0%
• actual data is 2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 3.5 percent."
• "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2017-03-31 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 51.6
• forecast data is 51.7
• actual data is 51.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From rttnews article:

• "The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in March, and at an accelerated pace, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.8."

==========

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The week ahead will offer plenty of opportunities to confirm if this is truly so. On the data front, ISM manufacturing- and service-sector activity surveys and the March jobs report are in focus. The Fed will also publish minutes from the last FOMC sit-down. A meeting between Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may complicate matters however. The US President said the meeting will be “very difficult”, alluding to what he has described as China pursuing “unfair” international trade advantage. Worries about escalating tensions between the world’s top-two economics may weigh on market-wide risk appetite if the tone of the meeting appears to be adversarial. In this scenario, Fed rate hike bets may sink alongside stock markets, which may hurt the US unit in the near term."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Market participants may pay increased attention to the key developments coming out of the U.S. as another slew of Fed officials (New York Fed President William Dudley, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo) are scheduled to speak throughout the first full-week of April, while U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 175L in March. Recent comments from Fed Vice-ChairStanley Fischer suggests the central bank remains on course to implement three or four rate-hikes in 2017 despite the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy, and a batch of hawkish central bank rhetoric paired with a further improvement in the labor market dynamics may heighten the appeal of the greenback as it puts increased pressure on the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate sooner rather than later."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "Next week brings a slate of medium-importance announcements out of Japan: Manufacturing PMI’s are set to be released on Sunday, Services PMI’s are released on Wednesday, and Consumer Confidence on Thursday. Each of these can add drive to JPY given the implication around stronger data bringing stronger inflation which will, eventually, begin to move the BoJ away from dovish accommodation. But more likely as primary drivers next week will be the larger global macro trends that have developed as questions around the ‘Trump Trade’ continue to circulate."