Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for GBP/USD - page 4

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.21 10:21

Trading News Events: U.K. CPI (adapted from the article)


  • "A pickup in the U.K.’s headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may fuel the near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it raises the risk of seeing a greater dissent within Bank of England (BoE)."
  • "Above-target inflation may spark a growing rift within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) following the 8 to 1 vote in March, but the discord could be short lived with board member Kristen Forbes scheduled to depart the central bank at the end of June. With that said, Governor Mark Carney may continue to tame interest rate expectations and reiterate ‘monetary policy can respond, in either direction’ as Prime Minister Theresa May plans to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on March 29. The U.K.’s departure from the European Union (EU) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound especially as Scotland appears to be on course to hold a second referendum, and renew fears of a ‘hard Brexit’ may push the central bank to further support the real economy as ‘the Committee expects a slowdown in aggregate demand over the course of this year.’"


Bullish GBP Trade: Headline Reading Exceeds 2% Target, Core Inflation Upticks in February

  • "Need a green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long GBP/USD entry."
  • "If the market reaction favors a long British Pound trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Report Fails to Meet Market Expectations

  • "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse."

GBP/USD M5: 56 pips range price movement by U.K. CPI news event


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:29

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "Essentially, there are two main reasons why the Bank could move. First, UK inflation climbed to 2.3% in February, above the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since late 2013. Second, the UK economy has so far confounded those who predicted a sharp downturn if the British people decided to leave the EU, as they did. In particular, the first reading of fourth-quarter GDP – up 0.7% quarter/quarter – suggests that the economy is motoring ahead. That figure is likely to be confirmed on Friday, when revised data are published, keeping the prospect of a rate rise firmly on the agenda and helping the Pound to extend its gains."


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.30 16:18

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-03-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 1.9%
  • forecast data is 2.0%
  • actual data is 2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 3.5 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



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