Press review - page 460

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 27 - December 04 (based on the article)

The US dollar reached new highs against the euro and the yen, but some profit taking was seen amid the Thanksgiving vaction. We are not back to full business: GDP data in the US and Canada, US consumer confidence and a full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. 

1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 14:00. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify on economic and monetary developments following the Brexit vote before the European Parliament’s Economic Committee in Brussels. Draghi noted recently that the ECB will extend its €1.7 trillion bond-purchase program on December, warning that the Eurozone’s weak economy remains clouded by downside risks and heavily reliant on the ECB’s stimulus.
2. US GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. After three unimpressive quarters, the US economy rebounded in Q3 and advanced at 2.9% according to the initial report, which came out slightly better than expected. The second release is expected to show a small upgrade to 3% annualized growth. Note that significant revisions are common in the US.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. Consumer morale declined in October to 98.6 compared to 103.5 posted in the prior month, suggesting households remained cautious amid weaker economic growth and pre-election uncertainty. Economists forecasted a decline to 101.5. Most analysts believe this decline was temporary reflecting the nervousness about the looming presidential election. Nevertheless, consumers continue to spend boosting growth. Analysts forecast a rise in consumer confidence to 101.3.
4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. The ADP jobs report for October continued to disappoint with a smaller than expected release of 147,000 new positions, the weakest figure since April 2013. Construction and education jobs dropped sharply as the overall trend of job gains continues to weaken. However, job growth remains strong but the pace of growth is slowing. ADP report is expected to show a jobs gain of 161,000 in November.
5. Canadian GDP data: Wednesday, 13:30. The November release showed the Canadian gross domestic product advanced at the slowest pace in three months, rising 0.2% in August compared to 0.4% in July and 0.6% in June. Between August of 2015 and August of 2016, the Canadian GDP has increased a mere 1.3%. Goods-producing industries, the main contributors to GDP, increased by 0.7% from July and fell 0.9% from a year ago. The service sector remained unchanged in August. GDP in Canada is forecasted to rise 0.1% in October.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. U.S. crude oil stocks declined in the week to Nov. 18 after three straight weeks of gains as imports dropped and refineries hiked output. Crude inventories declined 1.3 million barrels, compared after an increase of 671,000 barrels in the previous week.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits edged up from a 43-year low last week, but remained positive, reflecting a tightening labor market. The number of new claims increased by18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 251,000 while economists expected a gain of 241,000. Claims remained below 300,000 for 90 straight weeks. The four-week moving average of claims fell 2,000 to 251,000 last week. The number of new claims is expected to reach 252,000 this week.
8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 15:00. The US ISM manufacturing index gained momentum in October rising to 51.9 from 51.5 in the previous month. The reading was a bit lower than the expectations of 51.7. Production strengthened to 54.6 from 52.8, but orders declined to 52.1 from 55.1. The employment index returned to growth at 52.9 from 49.7 in the previous month and export orders remained in positive territory for the eighth successive month. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise further to 52.1 in November.
9. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 13:30. The Canadian employment market gained 44,000 jobs in October. The increase was entirely due to part-time employment offsetting a loss in full-time positions. The reading was further evidence that Canada is struggling to provide quality, high-paying jobs. The increase in employment was driven by 67,000 additional part-time positions, while full-time jobs plunged by 23,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 7.0% as more people entered the labor market, looking for work. Analysts expected an overall job loss of 10,000. The Canadian employment market is expected to gain only 100 jobs in November and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7%.
10. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. monthly jobs report showed a smaller than expected jobs gain of 161,000 in October.  While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%. However, hourly pay increased 10 cents reflecting a 2.8% annualized increase. Analysts believe this is a step in the right direction which will enable the Fed to proceed with their rate hike plans. US job market is expected to create 165,000 in November and the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 4.9%.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD: 2016, November 27 - December 04 (based on the article)

EUR/USD dipped to new lows but did not experience the magnitude of the previous weeks. Fresh inflation figures stand out as we enter the final month of 2016.

1. Monetary data: Monday, 9:00. According to the ECB, M3 Money Supply, or the amount of money in circulation, rose at an annual pace of 5%, and no change is expected. Private loans advanced at a rate of 1.8% and a rise to 1.9% is predicted. Both numbers have been stable of late.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 14:00. The President of the ECB testifies once again in Brussels. His previous comments were relatively dovish, and there is a good chance he repeats them now. Tension is growing towards the ECB’s decision in December.
3. German CPI: Tuesday: the German states release the data throughout the morning with the all-German figure at 13:00. Prices rose in Germany by 0.2% in October. We now get the preliminary numbers for November. The German numbers feed into the all-European figures and they will impact the ECB. A rise of 0.1% m/m is on the cards.
4. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 7:45. Back in September, the volume of sales in Europe’s second largest economy disappointed with a drop of 0.2% against expectations for a rise. A rise of 0.2% is predicted.
5. Spanish CPI: Tuesday, 8:00. Spain suffered from one of the deepest levels of deflation but managed to return to price rises. It saw an annual advance of 0.7% back in October. We now get the preliminary data for November. A rise of 0.5% is projected.
6. German Retail Sales: Wednesday, 7:00. The volume of retail sales disappointed with a big drop of 1.4% in September. For the month of October, an increase of 1% is expected.
7. French CPI: Wednesday, 7:45. Hours before the all-European release, we get figures from the second largest economy. Prices stalled back in October on a monthly basis. A slide of 0.1% is projected.
8. German Unemployment Change: Wednesday, 8:55. Germany enjoys a rather consistent drop in the level of unemployment. The month of September saw a drop of 13K in the number of unemployed. A drop of 6K is estimated.
9. CPI: Wednesday, 10:00. This is the first estimate of euro-zone inflation for November, data that will be closely watched by the ECB in Frankfurt. In October, headline inflation rose by 0.5%, an improvement led by the diminishing effect of the fall in oil prices. However, core inflation remained stuck at 0.8%. Another tick up is predicted in headline CPI, to 0.6%, while core inflation is projected to remain unchanged.
10. Mario Draghi talks: Wednesday, 12:30. The President of the ECB will make a second apperance this week, this time in Madrid, where the future of Europe is on the agenda. While monetary policy is officially off the cards, anything related to future moves could still slip.
11. Manufacturing PMIs: Thursday: Spain at 8:15, Italy at 8:45, final French figure at 8:50, final German data at 8:55 and the final euro-zone data at 9:00. Back in October, Spain had a score of 53.3 points, above the 50 point threshold separating expansion from contraction. A score of 53.7 is expected now.. Italy had a lower score of 50.9 points and 51.4 is forecast now. The initial number for France stood at 51.5 points in November. Germany had 54.4 and the whole euro-zone at 53.7 points. These numbers will probably be confirmed now.
12. Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 10:00. The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone had a few great months, sliding from the highs, but afterward, it stalled. In September it reached 10%. A repeat is estimated now.
13. Spanish Unemployment Change: Friday, 8:00. Spain still has a very high unemployment rate and the monthly release of the change in unemployment is eyed. Back in October, Spain saw a rise of 44.7K. A drop of 25.8K is predicted.
14. PPI: Friday, 10:00. The Producer Price Index ticked up by 0.1% in September. These figures eventually reach consumers. A rise of 0.4% is on the cards.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.21 18:16

Introduction to Technical Indicators - Oscillators: RSI, Stochastics, CCI, MACD (based on the article)

Oscillators give traders an idea of how momentum is developing on a specific currency pair. When price treks higher, oscillators will move higher. When price drops lower, oscillators will move lower. Whenever oscillators reach an extreme level, it might be time to look for price to turn back around to the mean. However, just because an oscillator reaches “Overbought” or “Oversold” levels doesn’t mean we should try to call a top or a bottom. Oscillators can stay at extreme levels for a long time, so we need to wait for a valid sign before trading.

RSI
The Relative Strength Index is arguably the most popular oscillator out there. A big component of its formula is the ratio between the average gain and average loss over the last 14 periods. The RSI is bound between 0 – 100 and is considered overbought above 70 and oversold when below 30. Traders generally look to sell when 70 is crossed from above and look to buy when 30 is crossed from below.

Stochastics
Stochastics offer traders a different approach to calculate price oscillations by tracking how far the current price is from the lowest low of the last X number of periods. This distance is then divided by the difference between the high and low price during the same number of periods. The line created, %K, is then used to create a moving average, %D, that is placed directly on top of the %K. The result is two lines moving between 0-100 with overbought and oversold levels at 80 and 20. Traders can wait for the two lines to crosses while in overbought or oversold territories or they can look for divergence between the stochastic and the actual price before placing a trade.

CCI
The Commodity Channel Index is different than many oscillators in that there is no limit to how high or how low it can go. It uses 0 as a centerline with overbought and oversold levels starting at +100 and -100. Traders look to sell breaks below +100 and buy breaks above -100. 

MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence tracks the difference between two EMA lines, the 12 EMA and 26 EMA. The difference between the two EMAs is then drawn on a sub-chart (called the MACD line) with a 9 EMA drawn directly on top of it (called the Signal line). Traders then look to buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and look to sell when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. There are also opportunities to trade divergence between the MACD and price.

[Sergey Golubev]

OPEC Meeting Preview: New Drama Unfolds (based on the article)

Intra-day Brent Crude Oil price broke 200 SMA at 49.54 to below for the reversal to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA rangging area for the 47.50 support level to be tested for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.

• "As late as Thanksgiving morning (November 24) there was significant hope that the coming week’s OPEC meeting and negotiations with non-OPEC countries would lead to a widely accepted oil output freeze or maybe even a reduction in oil output."
• "Since Friday, however, negotiations have blown up."
• "It is still possible for a deal to fall into place at Wednesday’s OPEC meeting or for the framework of a new deal to take form."

If H4 price breaks 47.50 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 46.56 target to re-enter.
If H4 price breaks 49.54 to above on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started with 49.94/50.82 nearest bullish target.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Review Fundamentals: Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and OPEC Meetings (based on the article)

EURUSD daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within very narrow s/r levels waiting for the primary bearish trend to be resumed or for the secondary rally to be started.

• "Some important economic reports are due out later in the week, including the monthly jobs report and new figures about economic growth. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be in focus as well, with a number of speeches from Fed officials and the central bank's so-called Beige Book."
• "This might come as a surprise, considering the news flow of the last 11 months. In the U.S., uncertainty concerning the presidential election for much of the year added a headwind to the economy. There has been some risks from overseas as well: slowing growth in commodity-guzzling China, the Brexit vote, the health of the European financial system, an OPEC that seems to be constantly threatening a reduction in production and the ongoing Syrian refuge crisis."
• "On the Fed, the minutes of the November 2 FOMC meeting showed that members are still leaning towards a December rate hike. However, there were polarizing opinion concerning the amount of labor market slack and the risks plaguing the 2 percent inflation target. The December FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 13-14."

If the daily price breaks 1.0517 support level to below on close bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 1.0657 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging withn the levels waiting for direction.

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and US Dollar Index: ECB President Draghi Speech

2016-11-28 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the European Central Bank's perspective on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of the Brexit before the European Parliament's Economic Committee, in Brussels.

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From official release:

• "It is, in fact, essential to further strengthen and develop the Single Market. In the area of financial services we have made significant progress. The Single Market for financial services is now supported by the Single Rulebook for banks and by common supervisory institutions. Within the euro area we went further with the banking union. As I have said, we are not at the end of this process. For instance, financial integration through a fully fledged Capital Markets Union could diversify financing sources for European companies. By fostering private risk-sharing, it can also contribute to a more resilient European economy."
• "It is encouraging to see that recent opinion surveys show support for European integration increasing since the UK referendum, contrary to the expectations of many. At the same time, there are lessons to be learnt. The key lesson is that the European Union has to deliver on key objectives from the citizens’ perspective if it is to rekindle trust in the European project. And to address the widespread feelings of insecurity, including economic insecurity, the European project needs strong economic foundations. For the euro area economy, this means strengthening the recovery, preserving financial stability and addressing the remaining vulnerabilities of Economic and Monetary Union." 

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EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events

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USD/CNH M5: 29 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events

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US Dollar Index M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Everything Goldman Sachs predicts for 2017 - in one chart

[Sergey Golubev]

The Problem for OPEC in Three Charts (based on the article)

• "OPEC’s recent attempt to cooperate on production cuts was supposed to end the global price wars and the battle for customers."
• "It is pretty clear now that isn’t happening. The battle is just entering a different phase."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech and 34 pips price movement

2016-11-29 00:45 GMT | [CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech titled "The Role of Services in Canada’s Economy" at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Benefactors’ Lecture, in Toronto.

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From official report:

• "I strongly believe that the continued expansion of our service sector is pointing the way toward full economic recovery and the return of sustained, natural growth."
• "The data are limited, but evidence suggests firm creation in this industry is above the average of the rest of the economy. Output has grown by more than 15 per cent since the start of 2011—a faster pace than the rest of the service sector and more than double the pace of the goods sector. In the past five years, the industry has grown by close to $8 billion and now represents more than 3 per cent of our economy. This is the kind of creation that follows the destruction."
• "Certainly, the concept of an output gap is gradually changing, as services capacity depends mainly on people and skills rather than industrial capacity, while some parts of our old industrial capacity could become redundant in the face of major structural changes. The concept of investment is shifting away from plants and machinery toward human capital. Even the concept of inventories is changing."
• "The conduct of monetary policy must manage uncertainty as a matter of routine—uncertainty about the economic outlook, about unobservable variables such as potential output, and so on. It is the nature of economics and economic models that we should always express our expectations in probabilistic terms—that is, a number surrounded by a margin of error—and make policy decisions that carefully weigh and manage those risks. In short, monetary policy is not like engineering."

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USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels.

H4 price is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA)  in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 1.0684 resistance level located near and below 100 SMA in the secondary rally to be started, and
• 1.0518 support level located below 100/200 SMA in the primary ebarish trend to be resumed.

If the price breaks 1.0684 level to above so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started, , and if the price breaks 1.0518 suppoer level to below so the bearish trend will be resumed.

Daily price is located below 100/200 SMA for the bearish market condition with the ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels waiting for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the rally to be started.

Anyway, United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be on ranging market condition within the primary bearish trend.

"We just turned neutral on EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase, likely within a 1.0550/1.0750 range."

• If the price will break 1.0684 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  
• If price will break 1.0518 support on daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  
• If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.