Press review - page 411

[Sergey Golubev]

Week Ahead: Brexit: This Is Not A Drill - FX Markets Drivers & Views (based on the article)

• "Next week’s data releases may have less of an impact on the markets."
• "All this could push GBP another 7% lower from current levels in the near term and lower still over the longer-term."
• "We expect EUR to underperform USD and JPY."
• "The prospect for FX intervention could limit the JPY and CHF especially against USD."

GBP/USD H4: ranging within narrow levels after bearish breakdown. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA level to be reversed to the bearish area of the chart, and it was started to be ranging within the following narrow s/r levels:

• 38.2% Fibo level at 1.3911 located on the border between the primary bearish and the secondary rally on the chart, and
• Fibo level at 1.3229 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal on the primary bearish area.
  

If D1 price will break 1.3229 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.3911 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally within the bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.4335 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal of the daily price movement will be started with the secondary ranging condition.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Realization of Brexit is a Potential Nightmare for the Euro (based on the article)

"Volatility in markets and the uncertainty around the long-term viability of the EU will likely put a small but noticeable chill on economic activity, which conveniently gives the European Central Bank cover to ease further, something the Euro-Zone desperately needs. Overnight Index Swaps markets have dragged forward expectations for a rate cut by September 2016 (62%), suggesting that markets feel liquidity assistance will be necessary as uncertainty persists (there are signs of funding pressures increasing). Anticipation of ECB action could weigh against the Euro, as it has done consistently over the past five years."

Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA on Friday for the bearish market condition. New Monday's candle was opened below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the primary bearish area of the chart. RSI indicator is estimating the bearish condition, and symmetric triangle pattern was crossed by the price to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0911 nearest target.

[Sergey Golubev]

After - Crude Oil Aims in Opposite Directions After Brexit (adapted from the article)

Brent Crude Oil, D1:

• "Crude oil prices put in the largest daily decline in four months. From here, a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 45.60 targets the 38.2% level at 41.86. Alternatively, a move above resistance in the 48.73-50.18 area exposes the 23.6% Fib expansion at 51.86."
  
• H4 intra-day price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA area for the bearish market condition.
• The price is testing 47.52 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
• The primary bullish trend will be resumed only if the price breaks 50.83 resistance level to above.
• The most likely scenario for H4 price movement is the bearish to be continuing and ranging bearish within the levels.
  

[Sergey Golubev]

After - Gold Prices Aims in Opposite Directions After Brexit (adapted from the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD), D1:

• "Gold prices accelerated upward having put in a bottom below $1200/oz as expected, spiking to a two-year high. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1321.79 paves the way for another test of the 76.4% level at 1338.72. Alternatively, a reversal below the 50% Fib at 1308.12 exposes the 38.2% expansion at 1294.44."
• H4 intra-day price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area to above for the bullish market condition.
• The price is on bullish ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.
• If the price breaks 1358.30 resistance level to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
• If the price breaks 1303.69 support level to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
• If the price breaks 1250.26 support level to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement back to the bearish condition.
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Britain’s finance minister George Osborne says UK ready to face future from position of strength (based on the article)

• "Britain is ready to confront what the future holds for us from a position of strength."
• "Our economy is about as strong as it could be to confront the challenge our country now faces."
• "Only the UK can trigger Article 50, and in my judgement we should only do that when there is a clear view about what new arrangement we are seeking with our European neighbours."

By the way, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America cut sterling forecasts, and FTSE 250 poised for worst 2-day drop since 2008 crisis.

The weekly price was already located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart, so the recent bearish breakdown is the good situation for the traders who opened the sell positiona for example: price will continuing with the bearish trend in case the support level at 1.3227 is going to be broken to below on close weekly bar.

Long term situation for GBP/USD month price: bearish. The support level at 1.3227 is the key level for the long-term bearish trend to be continuing.

The situation: watch 1.3227 support level to be broken to below for weekly/monthly price on close bar to have the idea about the future of GBP/USD: the long-term bearish to be continuing or the price will be on ranging bearish for 2016 and 2017 for example.

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Brexit - daily correction to be started with 43.30 as a daily bearish reversal target (adapted on the article)

• "There are three things that stand out on the Daily US Oil chart. First, the resistance around $50 from the October high. Second, the lower high into the Brexit vote that was met with a much stronger US dollar. Lastly, the pressure now being put on the 55-day moving average that has been a clear directional bias indicator for crude."
• "At the risk of oversimplification, if the US dollar begins to strengthen further, and WTI Crude Oil (CFD: US Oil) falls back below the 55-Day Moving Average (currently at $46.59 per barrel), we could likely see a retest of the March corrective zone. This zone occurred when US Dollar showed strength again that eventually faded. This zone sits at $41.85/$35.81 per barrel. A break below this zone would favor retest below $30 a barrel."

D1 price is on ranging market condition within the primary bullish area of the chart: price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA area for 46.92 support level to be broken to below for the secondary correction to be started with 43.30 bearish reversal target.

Resistance	Support
52.82	46.92
N/A	43.30

If D1 price will break 46.92 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If D1 price will break 43.30 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 52.82 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals: EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum

2016-06-28 08:00 GMT | [EUR - EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum] = MEPs will meet on in Brussels for an extraordinary plenary session at 10:00. Parliament's political group leaders will discuss the consequences of the UK vote with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and a representative of the Dutch Presidency of the Council. They will vote on a non-binding resolution to feed into Wednesday's meeting of 27 EU heads of state and government on the same topic. Parliament will have to approve any withdrawal agreement with the UK as well as any agreement on a new relationship between the EU and the UK.

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European Parliament to press UK for quick exit ahead of summit (from Independent article):

"European Union lawmakers are meeting in emergency session to discuss the U.K.'s unprecedented vote to leave the EU, set to call for Britain to trigger the exit process immediately. A non-binding draft resolution drawn up for Tuesday's session says the process should be launched once Prime Minister David Cameron notifies the outcome of the British referendum to EU leaders. Cameron is to share his views about the referendum and perhaps Britain's future at a summit in Brussels on Tuesday afternoon. He has signaled that Britain might not trigger the exit clause known as Article 50 until October. EU nations acknowledge the political chaos in the U.K. but they want Article 50 triggered as soon as possible to calm markets and reassure European citizens."

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EUR/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum news event

GBP/USD M5: 68 pips price movement by EU Parliament to Vote on Resolution on U.K. Referendum news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-06-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 0.8%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is 1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

• "Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased 1.4 percent."
• "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, th increase in real GDP was 0.8 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; exports increased more than previously estimated."
• "Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in production, increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth.  The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth."
  

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EUR/USD M5: 9 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event

GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

SILVER (XAG/USD) Intra-Day Technical Analysis - correctional ranging to 200 SMA bearish reversal area (adapted from the article)

H1 price is located above SMA with period 200 in the bullish area of the chart:

• The price is on ranging within 17.99 "bullish continuation" resistance and 17.50 "bearish reversal" support.
• "It might not turn into a rout, but a clean undercut into the upper 17.50s on the hourly should lead to near-term weakness towards 17.30/25. If selling becomes aggressive then a move could develop into strong support between 17.07 and 17.13."

If the price will break 17.99 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If price will break 17.50 support so the bearish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started with 17.06 target.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
17.99	17.50
18.27	17.06

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 17.50 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 17.99 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

[Sergey Golubev]

Goldman Sachs forecasts UK recession in 2017 (based on the article)

• "First, the UK terms of trade are likely to deteriorate, especially if it becomes harder to export high-value added services (including financial services) to the European Union," the note said.
• "Second, the uncertainty about the long term is likely to weigh on UK growth in the short term as firms hold off on investment...Third, outside the UK the main transmission channels are weaker UK demand for imports and - much more importantly - a tightening of financial conditions via a stronger exchange rate and lower risk asset prices."
• "Further downward adjustments could become necessary if global financial markets deteriorate beyond the initial reaction, or if we see greater than expected political and economic contagion into other European countries."