Spot Rates
EUR/USD: 1.1263
USD/JPY: 157.88
GBP/USD: 1.3493
USD/CHF: 0.8138
USD/CAD: 1.3945
AUD/USD: 0.7018
NZD/USD: 0.5646
EUR/GBP: 0.8346
Today — November 5
EUR/USD
1.1100 — EUR 2.9 billion
1.1150 — EUR 1.5 billion
1.1185 — EUR 1.1 billion
1.1195 — EUR 855 million
1.1200 — EUR 4.1 billion — largest
1.1205 — EUR 840 million
1.1210 — EUR 771 million
1.1215 — EUR 624 million
1.1220 — EUR 643 million
1.1225 — EUR 657 million
1.1230 — EUR 966 million
1.1235 — EUR 538 million
1.1250 — EUR 2 billion
1.1260 — EUR 511 million
1.1275 — EUR 1.4 billion
1.1300 — EUR 1.8 billion
1.1335 — EUR 621 million
The current spot rate is 1.1263.
The nearest level is 1.1260, about 3 pips below spot. Below that, 1.1250 is about 13 pips lower; to the upside, 1.1275 is about 12 pips higher.
The nearest key levels straddling spot are 1.1250, with EUR 2 billion, and 1.1275, with EUR 1.4 billion. As the New York cut approaches, watch whether trading continues around 1.1260 or moves away in either direction.
If EUR/USD falls toward 1.1250, watch whether trading settles there or breaks below and fails to recover. If the pair continues lower, the next listed levels are 1.1235, about 28 pips below 1.1263; 1.1230, about 33 pips below; and then 1.1225.
To the upside, if the pair breaks above 1.1275 and holds, watch 1.1300, about 37 pips higher, and 1.1335, about 72 pips higher.
The largest option, at 1.1200, is EUR 4.1 billion, but it is about 63 pips below spot. Despite its size, prioritize the reaction at 1.1250–1.1275 for now.
The 1.1150 level is about 113 pips below spot, and 1.1100 is about 163 pips below. Treat these as reference levels in the event of a substantial decline. Do not expect a move toward them based on option size alone.
USD/JPY
157.00 — USD 1.9 billion — largest
158.00 — USD 661 million
The current spot rate is 157.88.
The nearest level is 158.00, about 12 pips above spot. The first point to watch today is whether the pair approaches this level and how it trades there.
As the New York cut approaches, watch whether USD/JPY continues to trade around 158.00 or breaks above and holds. If it approaches but cannot hold there, assess whether upward momentum can continue.
The largest option, at 157.00, is about 88 pips below spot. Although the amount is substantial at USD 1.9 billion, the level is some distance away, so prioritize the reaction at 158.00 for now.
Do not assume the pair will approach or return to 158.00. If it moves lower, assess the actual downside momentum.
GBP/USD
1.3400 — GBP 1.1 billion — largest
1.3570 — GBP 664 million
The current spot rate is 1.3493.
The 1.3570 level is about 77 pips above spot, while 1.3400 is about 93 pips below.
Both levels are some distance from spot, so they are unlikely to define price action near current levels.
If GBP/USD rebounds, watch its approach to 1.3570. If it falls, monitor the reaction near the largest option at 1.3400. Do not assume a move toward either level based on size alone.
USD/CHF
0.8230 — USD 629 million
The current spot rate is 0.8138.
The 0.8230 level is about 92 pips above spot. Treat it as a level to monitor if the pair makes a substantial rebound.
Focus on whether trading settles near the level or breaks above and holds, rather than assuming it will affect price near current levels.
USD/CAD
No notable options are listed for today.
AUD/USD
0.6950 — AUD 558 million
0.7000 — AUD 525 million
0.7070 — AUD 602 million — largest
The current spot rate is 0.7018.
The nearest level is 0.7000, about 18 pips below spot. The first point to watch today is whether AUD/USD approaches this level and how it reacts.
As the New York cut approaches, watch whether trading settles around 0.7000 or holds there and rebounds. If the pair breaks below and cannot recover, 0.6950, about 68 pips lower, is the next listed level.
There is a 50-pip gap between 0.7000 and 0.6950, so a break below 0.7000 alone does not mean the pair will fall to 0.6950.
To the upside, the largest option is at 0.7070, about 52 pips above spot. Monitor this level if the rebound continues.
NZD/USD
No notable options are listed for today.
EUR/GBP
0.8400 — EUR 609 million
The current spot rate is 0.8346.
The 0.8400 level is about 54 pips above spot. It is a level to monitor if a rebound brings the pair closer.
Watch whether the advance stalls near the level or breaks above and holds. The presence of an option alone is not a reason to expect a move toward 0.8400.
Next Trading Day — November 6
EUR/USD
1.1250 — EUR 529 million
1.1300 — EUR 702 million — largest
Using the current spot rate as a reference, the nearest level is 1.1250, about 13 pips below spot.
The 1.1250 level is listed for both today and the next trading day, so watch the reaction there across both expiries.
The 1.1300 level is about 37 pips above spot. It is also listed for both days and is a level to monitor if EUR/USD breaks above today’s 1.1275 and continues higher.
The options for the next trading day lie on either side of the current price, but do not assume that trading will remain within the 1.1250–1.1300 range. Watch the reaction at each level.
USD/JPY
157.00 — USD 1.1 billion
157.50 — USD 550 million
158.00 — USD 3.2 billion — largest
159.00 — USD 1.1 billion
Using the current spot rate as a reference, the largest option, at 158.00, is about 12 pips above spot.
At USD 3.2 billion, it is substantial and close to the current price, making it a key level for the next trading day. There is also an option at 158.00 for today, keeping this level in focus across both expiries.
Watch whether trading continues around 158.00 or breaks above and holds. Do not assume an advance to, or a return to, 158.00 based on the option size alone.
To the downside, 157.50 is about 38 pips below spot and 157.00 is about 88 pips below. If the pair falls, monitor 157.50 first, followed by 157.00.
The 159.00 level is about 112 pips above spot. Do not assume a move to 159.00 based solely on a break above 158.00.
USD/CAD
1.3950 — USD 853 million — largest
1.4000 — USD 700 million
Using the current spot rate as a reference, the nearest level is 1.3950, about 5 pips above spot. It is also the largest option listed for the next trading day, making it the first level to watch.
Watch whether trading settles as USD/CAD approaches 1.3950 or breaks above and holds.
The next level, 1.4000, is about 55 pips above spot. With a 50-pip gap between the two levels, prioritize the reaction at 1.3950 first.
AUD/USD
0.6900 — AUD 772 million
0.6950 — AUD 640 million
0.7050 — AUD 558 million
0.7100 — AUD 928 million — largest
Using the current spot rate as a reference, the nearest level is 0.7050, about 32 pips above spot. It is the first level to monitor if the pair rebounds.
Today’s 0.7070 is also listed beyond that level. If AUD/USD rises, watch its reaction at 0.7050 and then 0.7070.
The largest option, at 0.7100, is about 82 pips above spot. Since it is some distance away, its size alone does not justify expecting a move toward that level.
To the downside, 0.6950 is about 68 pips below spot and 0.6900 is about 118 pips below. The 0.6950 level is listed for both today and the next trading day, but prioritize today’s reaction at 0.7000 for now.
GBP/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP
No notable options are listed for the next trading day.
Overall Picture
Today, EUR/USD has options close to spot: 1.1260 is about 3 pips below, 1.1275 is about 12 pips above, and 1.1250 is about 13 pips below.
EUR/USD has EUR 2 billion at 1.1250 and EUR 1.4 billion at 1.1275. Focus first on these two levels and whether trading settles near them or breaks through and moves away.
For USD/JPY, 158.00 is about 12 pips above spot. There is a large USD 3.2 billion option at the same level for the next trading day, making it important across both expiries.
For AUD/USD, 0.7000 is about 18 pips below spot. Watch whether the pair can hold there if it falls, or approach tomorrow’s 0.7050 if it rebounds.
For the next trading day, USD/CAD’s 1.3950 is about 5 pips above spot, while EUR/USD’s 1.1250 is about 13 pips below. Both are relatively close to current prices.
Trading Strategy
For EUR/USD, monitor trading around 1.1260. If the rebound continues, watch 1.1275 and then 1.1300. If the pair falls, focus on the reaction at 1.1250. If it breaks below and cannot recover, 1.1235–1.1230 are the next levels to watch.
For USD/JPY, focus on an approach to 158.00 and whether the pair holds there. With a large option at the same level for the next trading day, watch whether trading continues around 158.00 or moves away in either direction. If the pair declines, tomorrow’s 157.50 and then 157.00 are the next reference levels.
For AUD/USD, watch whether 0.7000 holds. If the pair rebounds, monitor tomorrow’s 0.7050, followed by today’s 0.7070.
For USD/CAD, tomorrow’s 1.3950 is close to spot, so watch the reaction as the pair approaches it. Even if it breaks above, do not assume a rise to 1.4000; first confirm whether the advance continues.
Do not base a trade solely on price approaching an option level. Focus on whether trading settles near the level or breaks through and holds.
