Week Ahead 13-16 October 2026: How Far the Key Releases Usually Move EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Gold
This is a measured look at the high-impact economic releases of the week of 13-16 October 2026: for each one, how far EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold have typically moved in the 15 minutes after it, over the last 3 years. It is history, not a forecast: it tells you what a normal reaction looks like, so that stops, position size and news filters can be set with real numbers.
This week's releases and their usual 15-minute move
| UTC | JST | Release | Forecast / previous | EUR/USD (pips) | USD/JPY (pips) | Gold (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 13 October | ||||||
| 14:00 | 23:00 | USD Existing Home Sales | 4.02M / 3.98M | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.78 |
| 23:50 | 08:50 (+1 day) | JPY BOJ L Money Stock y/y | 4.2% / 4.4% | - | 6.0 | - |
| Wednesday 14 October | ||||||
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD CPI m/m (with Core CPI n.s.a. m/m, Core CPI m/m, CPI y/y and 1 more) | 0.6% / 0.4% | 8.6 | 18.7 | 9.48 |
| Thursday 15 October | ||||||
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Retail Sales m/m (with Core Retail Sales m/m) | 1.2% / 1.2% | 7.8 | 11.6 | 3.70 |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Initial Jobless Claims | 192K / 197K | 6.1 | 10.0 | 3.64 |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 33.5 / 37.8 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 2.31 |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD PPI m/m | 0.0% / 0.4% | 7.5 | 9.2 | 3.21 |
| 16:00 | 01:00 (+1 day) | USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.831M / -3.186M | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.27 |
| Friday 16 October | ||||||
| 09:00 | 18:00 | EUR CPI y/y | 2.9% / 2.9% | 3.0 | - | - |
Median distance between the price at the release minute and the close 15 minutes later. Pips for EUR/USD and USD/JPY, US dollars for gold. Releases that come out together at least 8 times in 10 are shown in one row and measured once.
What stands out
- EUR/USD: the largest typical move this week follows CPI m/m (Wednesday 12:30 UTC): a median of 8.6 pips 15 minutes after the release, and more than 29.9 pips in one release out of four (33 releases since 2023).
- USD/JPY: the largest typical move this week follows CPI m/m (Wednesday 12:30 UTC): a median of 18.7 pips 15 minutes after the release, and more than 29.9 pips in one release out of four (33 releases since 2023).
- Gold: the largest typical move this week follows CPI m/m (Wednesday 12:30 UTC): a median of 9.48 US dollars 15 minutes after the release, and more than 13.98 US dollars in one release out of four (34 releases since 2023).
- Price moved the way the calendar rated the actual value (good or bad for the currency) more often than chance (binomial test, 95%) for: EUR/USD after Initial Jobless Claims (83 of 144 releases); Gold after Initial Jobless Claims (91 of 145 releases).
- Thursday 12:30 UTC: 4 USD releases come out at the same minute (Retail Sales m/m, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, PPI m/m). Each figure above was measured on that release's own history, and on this day they share one market move.
How the numbers are measured
- Releases and their times come from the economic calendar built into MetaTrader 5 (high importance only).
- Prices are one broker's MT5 demo feed, M1 bars where available (M5 or M15 for older dates). Your broker's numbers will differ slightly.
- The forecast and previous values are the calendar's own. Nothing on this page is a trading signal.
The figures come from News Impact Statistics, an indicator for MetaTrader 5 that measures the same on your own broker's prices and shows the usual move of the next releases on your chart.
Gotobi day this week (USD/JPY Tokyo fixing at 09:55 JST): Thursday 15 October. Nakane USDJPY Gotobi is an Expert Advisor that trades only those mornings.
