Last week confirmed the main scenarios. EUR/USD returned to the 1.1580-1.1600 base after hot US CPI. Bitcoin failed to hold above 80,000 for the third time in two months. Brent briefly rose above 110 as the Middle East oil conflict expanded, while gold fell below 4,400. The main driver was a new wave of monetary tightening: the ECB raised its rate to 2.65%, while the probability of a Fed hike reached 87%. The dollar strengthened, risk assets came under pressure, while oil remained the exception.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair started at 1.1613, reached 1.1654 on Wednesday on hawkish ECB expectations, then returned to 1.1580-1.1600 after the ECB decision and US CPI, closing at 1.1598. Support: 1.1580-1.1600, then 1.1500-1.1520, 1.1390-1.1410 and 1.1325-1.1355. Resistance: 1.1640-1.1655, then 1.1670-1.1710 and 1.1785-1.1800. Above 1.1580-1.1600, the outlook remains neutral-bullish. A break above 1.1670 could open the way to 1.1785-1.1800; below 1.1560-1.1570, selling pressure may strengthen. Wednesday’s Fed meeting will be decisive.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin touched 80,570 on Monday, then fell and reached 76,005 on Friday, closing near 77,300. Pressure came from US CPI, expectations of tighter Fed policy and $461 million in weekly spot ETF outflows. Support: 76,200-77,000, then 73,000-73,900 and 69,000-69,200. Resistance: 80,000, then 81,700-82,800 and 87,000-88,000. Above 76,200-77,000, the outlook is neutral. A break below 77,000 could open the way to 73,000-73,900; a move above 80,000 could lead to 81,700-82,800.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
The previous bullish scenario worked fully. Trading started on Tuesday at 95.30 after the US holiday, and Brent surged on news of a new Houthi front, briefly reaching 110.20. After US CPI, it corrected and closed near 104.60. As expected, the break above 97.50-98.00 opened the way to 100, but the move exceeded the target. Support: 100.00, then 97.50-98.00, 92.60-93.10 and 89.00-90.00. Resistance: 106.00-106.25, 107.50, 110.00-110.20, then 115.00-118.00. Above 100, the outlook remains bullish. A break above 110 could target 115-118; de-escalation around Hormuz may return Brent to 97-100.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold confirmed the downside risk from the previous forecast as 4,400-4,410 failed. The week started at 4,422. Gold tried to hold above 4,430 on Wednesday, then fell to 4,292 and closed near 4,350. Support: 4,280-4,350, then 4,200-4,250 and 4,000-4,080. Resistance: 4,440-4,470, then 4,490-4,510 and 4,600-4,660. Below 4,400, pressure remains. A return above 4,440-4,470 could open the way to 4,490-4,510; a break below 4,280 could lead to 4,200-4,250.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends
The main focus is the Fed decision and press conference on 16 September. After hot CPI, the probability of a rate hike is 87%. Wednesday also brings UK CPI and US retail sales. On Thursday, 17 September, markets will watch Eurozone CPI, the Bank of England decision, Philadelphia Fed Index and US jobless claims. On Friday, 18 September, the Bank of Japan decides on rates and the UK releases retail sales. For oil, Hormuz geopolitics remains the key factor.
Likely trends: EUR/USD - neutral-bullish above 1.1580-1.1600, targets 1.1670-1.1710. BTC/USD - neutral near 76,200-77,000; below 77,000 → 73,000-73,900, above 80,000 → 81,700-82,800. Brent - bullish above 100; above 110 → 115-118. XAU/USD - bearish below 4,400; above 4,440-4,470 → 4,490-4,510, below 4,280 → 4,200-4,250.
