Last week largely confirmed the previous forecast. The main trigger was the unexpected US Treasury decision to increase Treasury bond buybacks. Markets saw this as concern over debt-servicing costs, which caused a sharp fall in the dollar. Fed minutes also confirmed a softer policy outlook, adding pressure on the dollar. Geopolitics became the third driver: the US announcement of an economic war against Iran pushed oil higher and revived risks around the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, gold, bitcoin and Brent rose strongly, while the euro consolidated above 1.1600.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair started at 1.1562, jumped to 1.1679 on Wednesday, reached 1.1711 on Thursday and closed near 1.1676. Since late July, the trend has remained steadily higher and is moderately bullish above 1.1600. Support: 1.1600-1.1620, then 1.1560-1.1570, 1.1480-1.1520 and 1.1325-1.1350. Resistance: 1.1710-1.1720, then 1.1785-1.1800 and 1.1850. A break above 1.1710-1.1720 could open the way to 1.1785-1.1800; rejection could return the pair to 1.1600-1.1620.
🟠 bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Against last week’s bearish scenario, bitcoin reversed higher from 62,640 on Monday to 79,815 on Friday and trades near 77,500 on Saturday. The 17-22% rise was driven by spot ETF inflows, now continuing for five days, with about $307 million in one day. Support: 73,000-73,900, then 69,000-69,200 and 65,000-65,500. Resistance: 77,000-78,000, then 80,000 and 81,700-82,800. A break above 80,000 could open the way to 82,800 and 87,000-88,000; a fall below 73,000 could lead to 69,000-69,200.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent reached last week’s targets of 89.50-90.00 and 93.00-94.00 and closed at 92.38. The strongest move came on Thursday-Friday after the US announced an economic war against Iran, bringing Hormuz risks back into focus. Support: 90.00-90.50, then 88.50-89.50 and 84.00-85.00. Resistance: 95.00-96.00, then 100.00 and 102.00. Above 88.50, the outlook remains bullish, with targets at 95.00-96.00 and 100.00; de-escalation around Hormuz could trigger a correction to 90.00-90.50.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
The gold forecast also proved correct as 4,450-4,500 was broken amid dollar weakness. XAU/USD started at 4,375, reached 4,632 on Friday and closed at 4,604. Support: 4,500, then 4,440-4,450, 4,300-4,350 and 4,200-4,250. Resistance: 4,660, 4,740-4,770 and 4,830-4,890. Above 4,440-4,450, the outlook remains bullish, with targets at 4,660 and 4,770; a correction could bring the price back to 4,500.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends for the Week
The main focus is the Jackson Hole Symposium on 27-29 August, where the Fed Chair speaks on Friday and rate expectations will be key. On Tuesday, 25 August, Germany’s GDP and US Consumer Confidence are due. On Wednesday, 26 August, markets will watch the core PCE Price Index and revised US GDP; ECB minutes follow on Thursday, and revised employment data on Friday. For oil, Hormuz geopolitics remains the key factor.
Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bullish above 1.1600; above 1.1710-1.1720, target 1.1785-1.1800, while rejection could return it to 1.1600-1.1620. BTC/USD – bullish but volatile; above 80,000, target 82,800, while below 73,000 – 69,000-69,200. Brent – bullish; targets 95.00-96.00 and 100.00, with a correction possible on de-escalation. XAU/USD – bullish above 4,440-4,450, with targets at 4,660 and 4,770 and a possible correction to 4,500.
