From Tokyo with Tech: Daily AI Scalping Signals for Profitable Trades (March 24, 2025)

Introduction: Forex Forecast with AI Precision

Hello and welcome to this week’s Forex forecast powered by cutting-edge AI-driven analysis. I’m a Tokyo-based developer specializing in automated trading systems that seamlessly integrate both fundamental and technical insights. Drawing on years of quantitative research and financial engineering, I strive to provide advanced, reliable EAs (Expert Advisors) for traders seeking an edge in the currency markets.

Here, you’ll find concise, actionable analyses centered on key economic indicators—blended with AI predictions—to help you stay ahead of the market. I post these updates weekly and whenever significant forecast changes arise, so be sure to check back regularly for the latest insights.

1. Key Economic Indicators – March 24, 2025 (Monday)

Monday brings a trio of high-impact Flash PMI releases from the Eurozone, UK, and US, which are likely to set the tone for forex markets. Below is the schedule of these key indicators, with release times in both UTC and JST:

2. Details, Market Expectations, and Impact on Forex

In this section, we delve into each indicator’s expected figures and discuss how the results could affect major currencies (EUR, GBP, USD, JPY). We blend traditional fundamental analysis with AI-based insights to anticipate market reactions:

Eurozone Flash PMI (March) – Manufacturing & Services

The Eurozone’s flash PMI is expected to show a modest uptick in economic activity. Economists forecast the Manufacturing PMI at 48.3 (up from 47.6 in February) and the Services PMI at 51.2 (slightly above February’s 50.6). This suggests manufacturing contraction is easing, while services sector expansion is accelerating marginally. Traders will watch whether the data confirm the Eurozone’s resilience amid recent fiscal stimulus news (e.g. increased infrastructure and defense spending) or signal renewed weakness.

• Potential EUR Boost on Beat: A higher-than-expected PMI (especially if Manufacturing surges closer to 50+) would likely bolster the euro. It would reinforce optimism about Eurozone growth, possibly lifting EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as traders price in a more hawkish tone from the ECB or reduced need for stimulus.
• Downside Risks on Miss: If the PMI numbers disappoint (e.g., Manufacturing stays deep in contraction or Services dips near 50), it could weaken the euro. A soft PMI would heighten slowdown fears, leading EUR/USD to fall and potentially triggering a risk-off move that benefits the safe-haven JPY (pushing EUR/JPY lower).
• AI Predictive Insight: AI-driven models project a roughly 60% chance of an upside surprise given recent data patterns from Germany and France. However, these models also caution that any euro rally may be moderate – current machine-learning sentiment indicators show lingering concerns about Eurozone growth, which could limit EUR gains even on a positive PMI.

UK Flash PMI (March) – Manufacturing & Services

The UK’s flash PMI for March is anticipated to be relatively stable. Forecasts put Manufacturing PMI at 47.3 (slightly up from February’s 46.9) and Services PMI at 51.2 (just above the prior 51.0). This points to a continued mild contraction in manufacturing and modest expansion in services. Markets will be eyeing whether the UK economy shows any unexpected momentum or weakness as it enters spring, especially after recent UK budget measures that raised business costs (which had depressed hiring in prior PMIs).

• GBP Reaction to Surprises: A notable beat in Services (e.g. well above 51) or a Manufacturing PMI closer to 50 could spark a GBP rally. In such a case, GBP/USD might spike higher as traders speculate the Bank of England could lean more hawkish if growth proves resilient. Conversely, a big miss (Services falling back toward 50 or Manufacturing slumping further) would likely hurt the pound, sending GBP/USD lower and possibly strengthening EUR/GBP (as EUR holds up better).
• Focus on Employment Component: Traders will also parse the PMIs’ employment and new orders components for the UK. If these sub-indices show improvement, it could amplify a positive reaction for GBP, as it signals that businesses are coping better with higher staffing costs. Weakness there, however, might exacerbate any GBP sell-off on a soft headline PMI, as it adds to growth concerns.
• AI-Based Outlook: AI forecasting tools suggest the UK PMI is less likely to sharply surprise – our models assign a balanced probability to both upside and downside scenarios. They do indicate slightly elevated volatility for GBP pairs around the release, meaning even a small deviation from the consensus could trigger quick scalping opportunities. In summary, expect a knee-jerk GBP move even if the surprise is minor, but the move may fade if the deviation is not substantial.

U.S. S&P Global Flash PMI (March) – Manufacturing & Services

The U.S. flash PMI will be closely watched late in the day. Consensus forecasts point to mixed but steady readings: Manufacturing PMI is expected around 51.9 (a tad lower than February’s 52.7, but still in expansion) and Services PMI near 51.2 (slightly above the prior 51.0). Essentially, markets anticipate the composite PMI to hold roughly around the low-51s, indicating modest growth. This comes after February’s surprise slowdown in the flash composite PMI, which has raised questions about momentum in the U.S. economy. Traders will focus on whether March data corroborates a loss of momentum (perhaps due to recent Federal budget cuts and new tariffs) or shows resilience in output and demand.

• USD Strength Scenario: If U.S. PMI numbers beat forecasts (e.g., Manufacturing stays well above 52 and Services accelerates beyond 52), the dollar could strengthen broadly. A robust PMI would signal that U.S. economic activity is holding up, likely pushing U.S. bond yields higher and boosting USD/JPY (as USD gains and safe-haven yen weakens on improved risk sentiment). EUR/USD and GBP/USD might also dip on a strong USD impulse.
• Slowdown/Recession Signal: If the PMI slips significantly (for instance, a sub-50 reading in either PMI indicating contraction), expect a swift risk-off reaction. USD/JPY could drop as the yen gains on flight-to-safety flows, and the dollar might actually soften against the euro and pound as traders price in a dovish shift in Fed expectations. Equity futures might wobble too, feeding back into forex as investors unwind risk positions.
• AI Volatility Gauge: Our AI-driven sentiment analysis highlights this U.S. PMI release as a potential volatility catalyst. The model shows a high likelihood of a sharp initial move (20-30 pip swings on major USD pairs) if the data surprise either way. It notes that liquidity is thinner during the late US morning for some pairs, which could amplify moves. AI forecasts are slightly tilted toward a weaker-than-consensus outcome (reflecting recent declines in business optimism), so traders should be prepared for a possible downside surprise impact on USD.

3. Short-Term Scalping Strategies

Given the above expectations, short-term traders may find opportunities to scalp quick moves around these releases. The table below outlines some tactical ideas for trading key currency pairs at the moment of each PMI announcement. These strategies focus on capturing the initial volatility spike, with the understanding that tight stop-losses and disciplined risk management are essential due to the fast-moving nature of news trades:

4. Probability Assessment of Each Strategy

The table below assesses each of the above strategies in terms of confidence level, using a 5-star rating system (★★★★★ being highest confidence). These ratings reflect how likely each strategy is to yield a successful trade under typical market conditions, considering both the expected fundamental outcome and current market sentiment. Brief comments are included to explain the rationale behind each confidence rating:

Note: All strategies above assume traders employ proper risk management. Actual market conditions can vary; even high-probability setups can fail if volatility behaves unusually. Traders should adjust position sizes and stops according to their risk tolerance and always be prepared to react quickly to incoming data.

Japan AI Exo Scalp EA – An Innovative Solution for Implementing Trading Strategies

This EA generates reliable trading signals by combining technical analysis with economic data surprises such as Eurozone PMI, U.S. Core PCE, and UK CPI.
Japan AI Exo Scalp EA runs a six-step AI analysis process every time a new bar is confirmed on the chart.

[Bar Update]: Once a new bar is confirmed, automatic analysis begins.
[Technical Analysis]: Quantifies market conditions using trend, volatility, RSI, etc.
[Data Sent to ChatGPT]: The collected market data is sent to the latest GPT model (e.g., GPT-4.5, GPT-4 Turbo) to obtain optimal signals.
[GPT Trade Decision]: The AI returns instructions such as “buy,” “sell,” or “hold.”
[EA Signal Filtering]: Strictly checks safe trading conditions based on spread, RSI, and time of day.
[Trade Execution]: Executes entries with confidence once conditions are met.

Rather than aiming for ultra-fast scalping, it focuses on precise analysis and solid risk management to achieve stable entries in major currency pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, etc.).
(Note: The figures and forecasts above are hypothetical; please consult the latest real data and forecasts from relevant institutions.)

Disclaimer

The information provided by this document and the Japan AI Exo Scalp EA is intended solely as reference material and analytical results.
All markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Please make your own investment decisions under thorough risk management and capital control.

Additional Information (Product Link): Japan AI Exo Scalp EA Product Page