(15JANUARY 2019)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 1:Will hard Brexit break the pound?

Tonight will see the UK House of Commons vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed Withdrawal Agreement at about 7 pm London time. We expect a refusal. If May is rebuffed enough, we could see vote of no confidence against the government or May’s resignation. However, we suspect a tighter outcome, which probably will lead to an extension the Brexit deadline to mid- or late-2019. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2857, approaching 1.2710 short-term.