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Wednesday, June 13th
The EUR/USD pair remains flat this Wednesday, trading in the region of 1.1735-55 in anticipation of key events. Yesterday the pair came under notable bearish pressure on the back of series of weak ZEW economic surveys and upbeat US inflation figures. However, the pair managed to recover some pips after yesterday’s retreat and consolidate its positions within recent range amid broad cautiousness ahead of FOMC and ECB meetings, which will be able to bring divergence between regulators’ policies back into the play. For the most of the market today’s Fed rate hike remains a done deal, so investors will pay attention to the Fed's forward guidance, especially taking into account recent series of strong US macro data. Today the EU data calendar won’t offer us anything relevant, so investors will focus their attention on the key event of this Wednesday – the FOMC meeting, which will be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair extends its downside trend for the fourth consecutive session, now trading in the region of its weekly lows, marked on the level of 1.3320 a day before. Yesterday the pair failed to develop its bullish momentum, despite positive UK data from the labor market and the rejection of the key amendments during the Brexit vote in the UK parliament. Yesterday the House of Commons rejected a key article that would allow parliament to decide the next course of negotiations, thereby supporting the government and leaving UK PM Theresa May in charge of further negotiations with the EU. This outcome of the Brexit vote positively affected the Sterling, as it somewhat reduces the uncertainty in further negotiations. However, the pair failed to keep its positive mood, as US bull took the control over the pair after the US published important CPI report, which came above market expectations. Today the pair will experience a busy data session, as the economic calendar will bring us the UK CPI and US PPI figures, while the Fed interest decision will hog the limelight in the NY afternoon.
The USD/JPY pair remains better bid in the middle of the week, having reached its 3-week highs on the level of 110.69 during the Tokyo session. Recall, yesterday in Asia the pair came under bullish control on the back of improved risk appetite, underpinned by headlines that leaders of the US and North Korea signed a document, which provides for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and the lifting sanctions from the US side. In addition, during yesterday’s NA session the pair received additional bullish impetus following positive US inflation figures, which once again fueled market expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy. However, further upside trend of the pair looks limited, as markets remain cautious ahead of Fed meeting, which is scheduled for NY afternoon. Moreover, later this week the BoJ monetary policy meeting will also take place, so it is expected that the divergence between the regulators’ policies will again come into play. Besides the FOMC meeting, today the US will also release PPI report, which will be able to offer additional trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair remains pressured this Thursday, having tested its 2-week lows on the level of 0.7556, as Australian bulls remain exhausted. First, today the Aussie received negative impetus, following dovish comments of RBA Governor Phillip Lowe, who sees next cash rate hike some time away, as there is no strong need for any monetary policy adjustments. Moreover, positive rally of the US currency, sparked by yesterday’s positive inflation figures, also drives the pair to the negative territory this Wednesday. And finally, today the market witnessed swing in risk sentiment amid prevailing cautiousness ahead of important Fed monetary policy meeting, where the regulator is expected to increase its interest rate by 25 bps, which in turn negatively affects the higher-yielding Aussie. In addition, today the US will also publish PPI data, however, it is expected that this release won’t be able to cause any notable volatility across the market.
Major events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +3)
FOMC Press Conference – 21.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1686 R. 1.1838
USDJPY S. 109.76 R. 110.80
GBPUSD S. 1.3296 R. 1.3462
USDCHF S. 0.9807 R. 0.9915
AUDUSD S. 0.7528 R. 0.7648
NZDUSD S. 0.6965 R. 0.7067
USDCAD S. 1.2948 R. 1.3066
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