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Wednesday, May 30th
The EUR/USD pair recovered some pips in Asia after its retreat to 10-month lows, backed by increasing political jitters in Italy. According to the latest news, snap elections in Italy could take place at some point during July. Fresh elections in Italy may provide a stronger mandate to anti-EU parties. However, the pair managed to recover minor part of its recent losses, as the US dollar stalled its bullish run, offering another respite to the major currencies this Wednesday. On the data front, during European trades investors will focus their attention on the German unemployment data, while the US will offer markets preliminary GDP estimates and ADP employment report, which will form pair’s near-term trajectory this Wednesday.
The GBP/USD pair recovered some positions after another drop to its half-year lows, marked in the vicinity of 1.3200 on Tuesday. It seems that slowdown in the UK economy and as a consequence lowered expectations of a BoE rate hike this year remains the key driver for the pair, significantly weighting the pound across the market. However, the pair managed to recover minor part of its recent losses this Wednesday on the back of subdued dynamics of the greenback. Looking ahead, the UK data calendar won’t offer us anything interesting, so investors will focus their attention on the US ADP jobs data and preliminary GDP figures, which will be released during the NA session.
The USD/CAD pair extends its upside trend for the seventh consecutive session, having refreshed its 2-month lows in the region of 1.3050 on Tuesday. Recent bullish move of the pair is mainly explained by ongoing retreat of oil prices from its multi-year highs, which are weighting the commodity linked Loonie. On the other hand, subdued dynamics of the US dollar limits further gains of the pair, allowing it to slow down its bullish run. Moreover, slight cautiousness ahead of BoC meeting, which will take place during NY trades, also forces investors to refrain from opening important bets. It is expected that the CB of Canada will keep its interest rate unchanged, however, any talks regarding possible monetary policy tightening in future may positively affect the Canadian dollar. Besides important meeting of the Canadian regulator, investors will also pay attention to the US ADP jobs data and preliminary GDP figures, which will offer some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.
The NZD/USD pair remains positive in the middle of the week, having bounced off its intraday lows, located on the level of 0.6883. In Asia, the pair received notable bullish impetus following RBNZ Financial Stability Report, where RBNZ's Governor A. Orr noted that the financial system's outlook remains reliable. Moreover, lackluster dynamics of the US dollar is another positive driving factor for the pair, which allows the pair to recover some ground this Wednesday. However, ongoing risk aversion due to political drama in Italy limits further correction of the pair. In the day ahead, investors’ attention will remain glued to the US data, which will be able to set up pair’s further direction.
Major events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 10.55 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
Prelim. US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1432 R. 1.1694
USDJPY S. 107.42 R. 110.14
GBPUSD S. 1.3138 R. 1.3388
USDCHF S. 0.9785 R. 1.0047
AUDUSD S. 0.7464 R. 0.7574
NZDUSD S. 0.6854 R. 0.6974
USDCAD S. 1.2934 R. 1.3092
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