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Tuesday, January 30th
The EUR/USD pair remains bearish for the second session in a row, retreating from its 3-year highs, marked on the level of 1.2537 last week, as the US dollar extends its upside correction. Seems that the greenback has finally found a support and managed to recover part of its previous losses, backed by dovish comments of US Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin. However, further downside correction of the pair looks limited, as we are heading towards much important events of this week – FOMC meeting and NFP that brings some cautiousness among market participants. On the data front, today the EU data calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy, while the US will release CB consumer confidence, but it is expected that the US data will not cause a significant reaction across the market, as traders are preparing for more important events of this week.
The GBP/USD pair remains under heavy selling pressure this Tuesday, having refreshed its weekly lows below the level of 1.4000. Recently, the pound came under bearish pressure amid market speculations regarding possible dismissal of UK PM T.May from Brexit negotiations. These rumors were sparked by several complaints from British authorities that Ms. May lacks of vison of further Brexit strategy, which only increased uncertainty around Brexit and, as a result, exerted negative pressure on the pound. Moreover, decreased demand for higher-yielding assets in wake of upcoming crucial events, such as Fed monetary policy decision and NFP, which are expected later this week, exerts additional pressure on the risky pound. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the release of the US data and the speech by BoE Governor M.Carney, which both will take place during the NA session, while broad market trend will continue to determine pair’s further direction on Tuesday.
The USD/JPY pair failed several attempts to regain its positive tone, facing resistance at 109.20 level, despite correction of the US dollar. It seems that the pair mostly ignored upbeat sentiments around the US dollar, continuing to move to the negative territory. The key reason of pair’s bearish bias remains positive Japan’s retail sales numbers, which helped the yen to keep its upbeat tone during the Asian session. Moreover, expected that today the pair will continue to stay under pressure amid increasing cautiousness ahead of upcoming crucial event – Fed meeting, which will take place this Wednesday. Looking ahead, today we will have another quiet session, as the US calendar will bring us only CB consumer confidence data, so broad market trend and US dollar price moves will keep navigating the pair during this trading session.
The AUD/USD pair came out of its brief consolidation phase to the downside, having failed to recover above the level of 0.8100. Today ongoing recovery of the US dollar remains the key theme across the market, which is limiting pair’s chances to recover its previous losses. Moreover, deteriorating sentiments on the commodity market also negatively affected resource-linked Aussie. However, it is expected that today the pair won’t show us any sharp moves, as investors refrain of placing any important bets ahead of the batch of crucial events, such as releases of Australia’s inflation data and Chinese manufacturing report, as well as Fed interest rate decision, which will take place during the next trading session. Besides important releases of tomorrow, investors will also pay attention to US CB consumer confidence, which will bring some additional trading opportunities during the NA session.
Major events of the day:
US CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +2)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 17.30 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2287 R. 1.2479
USDJPY S. 108.18 R. 109.58
GBPUSD S. 1.3953 R. 1.4219
USDCHF S. 0.9295 R. 0.9427
AUDUSD S. 0.8050 R. 0.8140
NZDUSD S. 0.7264 R. 0.7392
USDCAD S. 1.2282 R. 1.2388
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