25th January ECB Interest Rate Decision

19 January 2018, 19:32
Europe’s Central Bank has been where the BoJ is today and has begun to achieve what Japan’s central bank is aiming for. Its main task now is preparing markets for the removal of the drip. ECB President Mario Draghi has been reluctant to force the economy into the monetary equivalent of cold Turkey. Hence, only some largesse has been removed so far. But €30bn a month—half the prior rate—of bond buys is also becoming difficult to justify as growth gears up. Bond purchases won’t end yet though. So the market is tuned to ‘forward guidance’—verbal commentary— shifting focus to the ECB’s zero-to-negative rates. The rationale is that the bank must first stop talking about bonds and start talking about rates in order to exit asset buying entirely. It takes time. If bond buying ends with 2018, the ECB will regard that as a win. Rates won’t rise on Thursday or anytime soon. The euro might advance further into recent three-year highs though, if that guidance hint is forthcoming.
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