USD/CHF keeps falling, is this going to continue below the 2 year range here?

USD/CHF keeps falling, is this going to continue below the 2 year range here?

29 June 2017, 20:37
Roman Vashchilin

Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9563, down -0.33% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9601 and low at 0.9558.

USD/CHF is down to test a key support area in a continuation of the broader bearish trend from the 1.0340's and a weekly double top area. EUR/USD is the driver with gains through to the 1.14 handle. 

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who is speaking at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum’s City Lecture in London, spoke with a balanced rhetoric while being far from hawkish. This has fueled extra supply in the dollar. The US Dollar Index dropped to its lowest point since late September at 95.35 and is now sitting at that level, losing 0.44% on the day.

Fed's Bullard: Current level of the policy rate is appropriate
Fed's Bullard: Inflation breakevens suggest Fed is being too hawkish

USD/CHF levels

USD/CHF is now below the base of a 2 year channel at 0.9628. Analysts at Commerzbank that we are around the bottom of a 2 year range here and they look for it to hold. "Failure here would imply losses to the 0.9072 May 2015 low." On a reversal, the upside potential remains for further gains to the 0.9800/55 band. "The March low and 30th May high lie at 0.9808/14 and we suspect that the market may struggle here. This guards the 200-day ma at 0.9963, which in turn protects the key resistance, which is now the 1.0108 April high,' explained the analysts. 

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